EVAGULF – Protection of aquatic communities in the Gulf of Finland: risk-based policymaking

1. EVAGULF – Protection of aquatic communities in the Gulf of Finland: risk-based policymaking Lindén, E., Lehikoinen, A., Kuikka, S., Aps, R., Kotta, J., Martin, G., Saat, T., Pitkänen, H., Räike, A., Korpinen, P., Stipa, T., Kaitala, S. & Jolma, A. www.evagulf.fi/en http://www.helsinki.fi/science/fem/

2. Eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland • Many species live on their physiological tolerance limit • Sensitive to additional stress • Eutrophication affects key environmental factors of species • Continuing eutrophication may lead many species to disappearance or reduction to critical levels • In addition: climate change • Salinity, temperature, ice cover, nutrient run-off • Related uncertainties large -> probabilistic approach • Bayesian methodology ICES ASC 2007

3. EVAGULF project • September 1st 2006 – December 31st 2007 • Partners • University of Helsinki, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Kotka unit • University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute • Finnish Environment Institute • Finnish Institute of Marine Research • Helsinki University of Technology, Laboratory of Geoinformation and Positioning Technology ICES ASC 2007

4. Objectives • To develop a decision analysis tool to help evaluate measures to protect endangered and key species in the GoF from eutrophication • To produce advice for the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive and the forthcoming EU Marine Strategy Directive • To describe the factors behind changes in species distribution and abundance • Combining information from different sources: long-term data sets, literature, expert knowledge, modelling ICES ASC 2007

5. EVAGULF Risk Assessment and Decision Support System (RADSS) • Probabilistic assessment of the current state of the ecosystem • Probabilistic prediction of the future • Comparison of different nutrient abatement measures and resulting loading predictions based on the risks they produce • Examination of uncertainties connected to decision-making • Assessment of the importance of regional nutrient loading for different parts of the GoF • Evaluation of the role of the global climate change ICES ASC 2007

6. Risk calculation • Risk = probability * harm • Valuation of harm must be defined by international agreements, classification systems and legislation • International conservation status classification of the World Conservation Union (IUCN) • Coastal water classification system of the EU Water Framework Directive • Different emphasis and indicators -> different policy recommendations? ICES ASC 2007

7. LOAD MODEL Nutrient concentrations CLIMATE CHANGE Total load ECOSYSTEM MODEL Nutrient concentrations KECs POPULATION ANALYSIS Population viability KECs probability harm VALUATION WFD / IUCN DECISION RANKING Structure of the model LOADING OPTIONS • Probabilistic model based on Bayesian networks • Enables combination of information in different forms • Information flow in two directions • From causes to effects = prediction of impacts of management actions • From effects to causes = assessment of the system in its current state • Results as probability distributions ICES ASC 2007

8. Regional division • Finnish coast • 1. Western inner archipelago • 2. Eastern inner archipelago • 3. Western outer archipelago • 4. Eastern outer archipelago • Estonian coast • 5. Western coast • 6. Eastern coast • Open sea area • 7. Western open sea • 8. Central open sea • 9. Eastern open sea ICES ASC 2007

9. The effects of the different nutrient loading scenarios on the key environmental factors of organisms are modelled YVA-SYKE 3D model Full baroclinic flow model, 17 vertical layers, 5x5 km grid Ecosystem model with sediment module Allows 5-year medium-term forecasts Long-term (> 30 y) forecasts by integrated use with the MARE/NEST 1D ecosystem model Ecosystem modelling BALECO 3D ecosystem model (FIMR) • 11x11 km grid, 3 m depth layers • 3 nutrients, 4 primary producers (2 harmful cyanobacteria) • HELCOM monitoring observations • Daily operational state estimates and forecasts on the Internet ICES ASC 2007

10. Population analyses • The effects of key environmental factors on the viability of populations are modelled • The past (existing data): How have the changes in the environment affected the abundance of organisms in different areas? • The future (predictions): • Population viability model based on the past observations and the predictions of the future state of the environment • What is the probability that the population falls below a threshold within a certain time period? • Endpoints • 2015 (target of the EU Water Framework Directive) • 2021 (target of the forthcoming EU Marine Strategy Directive) • Long-term monitoring data sets, literature, expert interviews ICES ASC 2007

11. Example: bladder wrack Fucus vesiculosus ICES ASC 2007

12. The user may select nutrient loading scenario for Finland, Estonia and Russia sub-area of interest inclusion or exclusion of the climate change scenario valuation principle Freely usable interactive graphical application in the Internet EVAGULF RADSS User interface ICES ASC 2007

13. Acknowledgements • Financers • Interreg IIIA • Southeast Finland Regional Environment Centre • Estonian Ministry of the Interior • University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute • Partners in co-operation • Kotka Maritime Research Centre Merikotka • Southeast Finland Regional Environment Centre • Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority • EuroUniversity of Tallinn • Estonian Ministry of the Environment • Estonian Environment Information Centre ICES ASC 2007

14. Thank you for your attention! www.evagulf.fi/en http://www.helsinki.fi/science/fem/