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Drivers of Housing Demand Preparing for the Impending Elder Boom

Drivers of Housing Demand Preparing for the Impending Elder Boom. www.gnocdc.org. A product of Nonprofit Knowledge Works. Part Ia. Economic and Housing Trends. The New Orleans metro has weathered the recession relatively well, buffered by the stimulus of Katrina rebuilding investments.

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Drivers of Housing Demand Preparing for the Impending Elder Boom

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  1. Drivers of Housing Demand Preparing for the Impending Elder Boom www.gnocdc.org A product of Nonprofit Knowledge Works

  2. Part Ia. Economic and Housing Trends

  3. The New Orleans metro has weathered the recession relatively well, buffered by the stimulus of Katrina rebuilding investments. Percent change in nonfarm jobs Aug. 2008 – Aug. 2011 • Source: GNOCDC analysis of data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  4. Fewer jobs mean fewer people and more vacant housing. Population, jobs, and housing units New Orleans metro • Sources: GNOCDC analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Moody’s Analytics (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: CES, QCEW).

  5. The New Orleans regional economy is still largely reliant on legacy industries. Regional “export” jobs for the 10 largest “export” specializations New Orleans 10-parish region • Source: GNOCDC analysis of data from Moody's Analytics (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: CES, QCEW).

  6. New Orleanians are feeling the impact of the Great Recession. Poverty rate for the population for whom poverty status is determined Sources: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from Census 2000 and American Community Survey single-year estimates for 2007 and 2010. Note: Reference dates for ACS estimates are the previous 12-month period, collected over a two-year period. n.s.= indicates change between 1999 and 2010 is not significant at 95% confidence interval.

  7. Home sales are slow in the city, but stable. Average monthly home sales, Jan. – Sep. New Orleans • Source: GNOCDC analysis of data from the New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors. • Note: Data captured monthly and numbers finalized a year later.

  8. New Orleans homeowners, even those without mortgages, have sharply higher housing costs since 2004. Median monthly housing costs for homeowners in 2010 inflation-adjusted dollars, Orleans Parish • Housing costs for homeowners include: • Mortgage • Taxes • Insurance • Utilities • Sources: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from American Community Survey 2004 and 2010. • Note: Data are in 2010 inflation-adjusted dollars using the CPI-U-RS.

  9. 35 percent of New Orleans homeowners are cost-burdened. Homeowners paying unaffordable housing costs 30% or more of pre-tax income on housing, 2010 • Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from American Community Survey 2010. • n.s.=indicates difference from Orleans is not significant at 95% confidence interval.

  10. Renter costs spiked 37 percent since 2004. Monthly housing costs for renters in 2010 inflation-adjusted dollars, Orleans Parish • Housing costs for renters include: • Rent • Utilities • Sources: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from American Community Survey 2004 and 2010. • Note: Data are in 2010 inflation-adjusted dollars using the CPI-U-RS.

  11. Renter costs in New Orleans are well above similar cities. Rent comparison across cities median gross monthly housing costs for rentals of any size, 2010 • Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the American Community Survey 2010. • n.s.=indicates difference from Orleans is not significant at 95% confidence interval.

  12. New Orleans renters pay 5 percent more than the U.S. average for housing from incomes that are 20 percent lower. Annual housing costs vs. income for renters, 2010 • Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the American Community Survey 2010.

  13. Due to a prevalence of low-wage jobs, Orleans rentersare more likely to pay at least half their income on housing than New York renters. Percent of renters paying unaffordable housing costs 50% or more of income on housing, 2010 • Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the American Community Survey 2010. • n.s.=indicates difference from Orleans is not significant at 95% confidence interval.

  14. Part Ib. Demographic Trends

  15. New Orleans metro population Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  16. New Orleans metro population The baby boomers are like a demographic tsunami. Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  17. New Orleans metro population Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  18. New Orleans metro population Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  19. New Orleans metro population Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  20. New Orleans metro population Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  21. New Orleans metro population Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  22. New Orleans metro population Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  23. New Orleans metro population Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  24. As the baby boomers age, the age structure of the metro area has shifted. Trends and projections in the share of population by age group New Orleans metro Sources: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census, and authors’ projections.

  25. As the baby boomers grew up and birth rates fell, the mix of household types dramatically changed in the city… Share of total households by type New Orleans • Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  26. …as well as in the suburbs. Share of total households by type Rest of the New Orleans metro • Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  27. Households with children are more likely to live in the suburbs, while singles <65 are more likely to live in New Orleans, and individuals 65+ are equally likely to live in the city or suburbs. Share of metro households living in the city by type of household, 2010 • Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  28. Another significant demographic shift is the influx of Latinos to the New Orleans metro, the majority of whom settled outside the city in suburban parishes. Hispanic population growth New Orleans and the rest of the New Orleans metro • Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  29. Were it not for the large influx of Latinos and Asians, the age structure of the New Orleans metro would be even older. The future of the New Orleans area will be decidedly more diverse. Elderly, working-age adults, and children in the New Orleans metro by race and ethnicity, 2010 65 + years 20-64 years Under 20 years • Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  30. Part II. Impending Housing Demand

  31. New Orleans metro population 142,000 residents 65 years+ Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  32. New Orleans metro population 191,000 residents 65 years+ Source: Authors’ projections.

  33. New Orleans metro population 233,000 residents 65 years+ Source: Authors’ projections.

  34. There will be a sizable jump in the metro population 65 years and older by 2020. Trends and projections in the population 65 years and older New Orleans metro • Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census, and authors’ projections.

  35. This is important because as adults reach retirement age and older, they may find themselves considering a move. Living in a different house one year ago Share of total population by age, 2010 • Source: GNOCDC analysis of data from the American Community Survey 2010.

  36. By 2020, the elder boom will dramatically change New Orleans’ household mix. Projected change in number of households by type for three scenarios New Orleans Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census, and authors’ projections. Note: For a downloadable spreadsheet of household and population projections for Scenario 1, and Technical Appendices with information about our methodology, be sure to visit www.gnocdc.org.

  37. In New Orleans, a large and growing number of adults 65 and older (living at home) have a moderate or serious disability. Adults 65 and older who are moderately or seriously disabled and living at home New Orleans Sources: Urban Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the Decennial Census 2010, American Community Survey 2010, and authors’ projections. Note: See the Technical Appendices for more details on our methodology.

  38. By 2030, a larger number of older adults in New Orleans will reach 75 years and older, at which point a larger number of elderly will likely have disabilities. Projections in the population 65 years and older New Orleans • Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census, and authors’ projections.

  39. New Orleans’ elders are much more likely to be impoverished than elders in surrounding suburbs and across the nation. Poverty and twice poverty rates in the population 65 years and older, 2010 • Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from American Community Survey 2010. • n.s.=indicates difference from Orleans is not significant at 95% confidence interval.

  40. Many baby boomers grew up in the suburbs. Density of occupied housing units New Orleans metro • Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  41. By 2010, 69 percent of all households in the metro lived in suburban parishes, and only 31 percent lived in the city. Occupied housing units by parish New Orleans metro • Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  42. Many baby boomers grew up in the suburbs and will likely remain there, if possible. But decisionmakers can strive to retain current residents in the city as they age. Share of metro population living in the city by age group, 2010 • Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

  43. Older New Orleanians are more likely be homeowners and live in single family homes built before 1950. Helping older people stay in their homes is a great preventer of future blight. Select household characteristics New Orleans, 2009 • Source: GNOCDC/ Urban Institute analysis of American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Series, 2009. • Note: These percentages are derived from authors’ analysis of American Community Survey 2009 microdata in order to capture housing characteristics not included in the Census 2010. As a result, the homeownership rate published above for all households varies slightly from the Census 2010.

  44. Part III. What demographic shifts suggest for policy and programs

  45. Attracting New Residents • Create central portal to market neighborhoods and ease moves into the city. • Live Baltimore • Milwaukee city and nonprofits • Think about the changing size and demographics of households when making development decisions.

  46. Building Supports for Aging in PlaceAccessibility • Repair assistance for low-income, older homeowners. • Enforce Fair Housing accessibility requirements for rentals. • Promote universal design.

  47. Building Supports for Aging in PlaceSupport Services • Assess health of in-home service sector. • Map out availability and gaps in community supports (types of services provided, transportation access, cost, etc.).

  48. Building Supports for Aging in PlaceAffordability • Promote availability of programs to reduce housing costs. • City program to freeze assessed value • NOLA Wise for energy-efficiency • Learn how state rules on Medicaid promote or hinder aging in place.

  49. Understanding the Array of Specialized Senior Housing New Orleans metro • Sources: GNOCDC/ Urban Institute analysis of InfoUSA and Nursing Home Compare databases.

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