Centre for Market and Public Organisation

1. Centre for Market and Public Organisation Fertility and women's education in the UK: a cohort analysis Mike Brewer (Institute for Fiscal Studies) Anita Ratcliffe (CMPO, University of Bristol) Sarah Smith (CMPO and IFS)

2. Understanding trends in fertility • Background • Fertility has fallen in developed countries prompting some governments to implement pro-natalist policies • In the UK the Total Fertility Rate has fallen from 2.93 in 1964 to 1.63 in 2001, however the TFR can be misleading • Cohort fertility trends • What have been the main changes in fertility behaviour? • (How) do these trends vary by education?

3. Data and Methodology • Data • Family Expenditure Survey/Expenditure and Food Survey 1968-2003/4 • Family Resources Survey 1995/6-2004/5 • Methodology • Construct fertility histories using “own-child” method • Construct yearly birth cohorts • Use survival analysis

4. Constructing fertility histories 1955 cohort: What proportion have a first birth at age 25? Combine “current” estimate: those aged 25 who have one child aged 0 in 1980 survey… … and “backwards” estimates: 1981 survey – those aged 26 whose oldest child is aged 1 1982 survey – those aged 27 whose oldest child is aged 2 and so on… Do the same for births at each age, and for different birth orders Current and backwards estimates are assumed to be equally valid; regression analysis shows no systematic effect of distance of survey year on estimated probability of birth

5. Potential measurement error/ selection problems • Mother’s and children’s ages measured imprecisely • Systematic bias which affects all cohorts • Infant mortality • Child mortality is low and falling in the UK • Household re-formation • Most children live with mother after family break-down • Children leaving home • Restrict sample to women aged 37 and under

6. Benefits of household data • Advantages: • Long time-series • Large sample sizes • Information on birth order • Demographic information (education , employment, region)

7. Comparison with official statistics

8. Completed family size, by cohort • Phase 1 (1935 – 1950) – decline in higher order births • Phase 2 (1945 – 1955) – rise in childlessness • Phase 3 (1955 – 1965) – period of stability • Phase 4 ??

9. Age at first birth, by cohort • Reduction in proportion giving birth before 30 • Increasingly women are giving birth after 30 years

10. Fertility and Education Note: college educated defined as those who report leaving full-time education at age 21 or above

11. Conclusions • Fertility is falling but is less than reduction implied by TFR • Women with higher education have lower fertility but expansion of higher education accounts for just one half of decline in fertility • Increasing polarisation of life-time experiences by education may have implications for social mobility: Hawkes et al (2004) show that “older mothers” typically had higher incomes.