In Press

1. In Press • CFP contains over 600 regulations, some contradictory, without efficient control • CFP aims for smallest instead of optimal stock size • Annual horse-trading leads to overfishing and uncertainty • The precautionary principle is perverted • Subsidies waste taxpayers money and create and maintain overcapacity

2. Towards Healthy Fish Stocksand Profitable Fisheries Rainer Froese IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany rfroese@ifm-geomar.de EC, 22 June 2010, Brussels

3. Overview • Some definitions • Global status of stocks • History of stocks and fisheries • Present status of European stocks • Ecosystem-approach in fisheries • Harvest Control Rules for future fisheries • Summary

4. Some Definitions • Stocks are the exploited part of populations • Biomass (B) refers to the sum of body weights of mature individuals (= spawning stock biomass) • MSY is the maximum sustainable yield or catch • F is the fraction of the stock dying from fishing (= fishing mortality) • Fmsy is the F that produces MSY at the stock size Bmsy(less if the stock is smaller, more if it is larger) • TAC is the total allowable catch per year per stock

5. Global catches can increase 40% under effective management • Subsidies (27 billion) exceed value added • Commercial stocks are headed towards collapse under current management

6. ? Froese and Kesner-Reyes, ICES 2002

7. Out of Current Stocks in 2048 ? Worm et al., Science 2006 Stocks (%) 2048 ?

8. The global number and percentage of stocks producing less than 10% of their maximum landings continues to increase • New stocks are getting less, approaching zero after 2020 Rainer Froese Amanda Stern-Pirlot Kathleen Kesner-Reyes

9. Froese et al. Marine Policy 2009

10. Froese et al. Marine Policy 2009

11. History of European Stocks and Fisheries Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR

12. Decline of stocks by 94% • Catches are half of sail-powered trawlers in 1889 • Effort per kg fish today is 17 times higher • Fisheries are economically bankrupt

13. UK bottom trawl fishery on cod, haddock, plaice Landings since 1889 Landings per effort Proxy for size of exploited stocks Thurstan et al. 2010

14. May 2010 • Bottom trawling in the Kattegat led to the collapse of cod and the disappearance of haddock and pollock • In the adjacent Öresund, where trawling has been banned for 70 years, all commercial stocks are in good shape with healthy age structure and high densities, despite gillnet fishery and many anglers

15. Present Status of European Stocks Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR

16. The Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982) requires stock sizes that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) • Johannesburg (2002) gave the political goal of 2015 • With ‘business as usual’ Europe will miss this goal by more than 30 years

17. Rebuilding European Fish Stocks Average size of 54 European fish stocks (bold blue line). The upper arrow indicates the path, if 75% of the stocks were to reach the internationally agreed target in 2015. The lower arrow shows the current trend. Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010

18. Fishing Pressure on European Fish Stocks UNCLOS CFP FAO/UNFSA JPOI Damanaki Average fishing pressure on 54 European fish stocks. The lower arrow indicates the path if 75% of the stocks were to be fished at the maximum sustainable rate in 2015. However, with the current trend that target will be missed by more than 30 years. Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010

19. Ecosystem-Approach in Fisheries Management Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR

20. Reducing catch to Fmsy is good but insufficient • Stock size may increase seven-fold if fish are caught after multiple spawning, at around 2/3 of their maximum length • Large stock size means low cost of fishing

21. Age-structure of North Sea Cod, with same catch but different minimum size Fmsy & Lopt Fmsy Current For a given catch, the least number of fish have to be killed at Lopt

22. Same catch, better age structure Stock size can increase seven-fold

23. Harvest Control Rules for Future Fisheries Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR

24. Under review Generic Harvest Control Rules for European Fisheries Rainer Froese, Trevor A. Branch, Alexander Proelß, Martin Quaas, Keith Sainsbury & Christopher Zimmermann • Rules for sustainable and profitable fisheries based on • 1) economic optimization of fisheries • 2) honoring international agreements • 3) true implementation of the precautionary principle • 4) learning from international experiences • 5) ecosystem-approach to fisheries management • 6) recognizing the biology of European fish stocks • If these rules were applied, catches could increase by 63%

25. Harvest Control Rule Schema

26. Fisheries in 2007

27. North Sea Herring 1960 - 1978

28. North Sea-Herring 1979 - 2008

29. Critique of Planned F-based Management • Fmsy is taken as target, not limit, thus violating UNFSA and the precautionary principle • Fishing at Fmsy is less profitable than at Fmey • Fishing at Fmsy results in substantially smaller stocks, violating the ecosystem approach • Fishing at Fmsy results in strongly fluctuating catches with high uncertainty for the industry • Fishing at Fmsy provides strong incentives for overcapacity • Fishing at TAC = 0.9 MSY solves these problems

30. ICES F-based Mangement

31. North Sea Herring Once More F-based Management would not have prevented the collapse of herring.

32. Summary • Reducing F to Fmsy in 2014 in four equal steps (Damanaki proposal) is good and needs all the support it can get • Further reducing F to 0.9 Fmsy in 2015 would satisfy UNFSA and the precautionary principle • Using a fixed TAC (= 0.9 MSY) instead of a fixed F would stabilize catches and stocks, facilitate communication with stakeholders, and go a long way towards the ecosystem approach

33. Thank You Questions? Rainer Froese rfroese@ifm-geomar.de