1 / 13

Low Carbon Development Planning

Low Carbon Development Planning. How to EFFECT Low Carbon Development. What is EFFECT?. Energy Forecasting Framework & Emissions Consensus Tool . Excel-based, bottom-up, engineering style model Supports consensus building and planning in key sectors of the economy

tadita
Download Presentation

Low Carbon Development Planning

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Low Carbon Development Planning How to EFFECT Low Carbon Development

  2. What is EFFECT? Energy Forecasting Framework & Emissions Consensus Tool • Excel-based, bottom-up, engineering style model • Supports consensus building and planning in key sectors of the economy • Helps assess the impact of policy choices on GHG emission levels • Used in Brazil, India, Poland, and six Asian-Pacific countries

  3. How does EFFECT Support Low Carbon Development (LCD)? • SCENARIO PLANNING • Develop emissions forecasts over a 25-year+ period • Prioritize GHG emission reduction • Design development and investment plans • Identify conditions necessary for a supportive, enabling environment for implementation • MULTI-SECTOR FOCUS • Power Generation • Large-Scale Energy Intensive Industry • On-Road Transport • Household Electricity Use • Nonresidential Energy Use

  4. Transport

  5. EFFECT – Transport model • Forecast change in • Freight and passenger transport needs • On-road vehicle fleet size and composition • Fuel/energy consumption and GHG emissions Why is it important? • Both passenger and freight are fastest growing GHG sectors in most developing countries • Increasing urbanization • Increasing household income • Both are often underestimated • In Mexico City, on-road transport almost half of total combustion energy

  6. Transport Model • Current Usage: • Initially developed for the India Low Carbon Growth Study • Has been used in 9 city-level studies: Bangkok, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Manila, Ulaanbaatar • Used in Brazil Low Carbon Growth Study and Nigeria • Basis for CTF measurement methodology

  7. Transport Modeling Framework

  8. Transport Model • Purpose Calculate and forecast Vehicle Ownership and Use

  9. Transport Model • Purpose Disaggregate vehicle ownership and use Calculate and forecast • Fuel consumption Fossil and Total • GHG emissions Ultimate CO2 • Local emissions CO, VOC, NOx, PM

  10. Five step process • Project ownership and usage of vehicles • Disaggregate vehicle population by type, technology, age, and fuel and project sales of new vehicles • Compute the fuel consumption and emissions factors for each specific type and technology of vehicle using the COPERT 4 model calibrated to local conditions.. • Project improvements in vehicle efficiency using a marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve for distinct types and sub-types of vehicle. • Compute the energy consumption and emissions for each type and sub-type of vehicle and for the active vehicle population.

  11. Compute Emissions • Key Variables • Output from transport model or data on vehicle • ownership and use • Historic sales data • Forecast sales mix • Fuel consumption data for calibration • Energy efficiency assumptions and adoption timeline

  12. EFFECT Model

  13. www.esmap.org

More Related