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Overview of Split Sentencing Research October 25, 2006 Mark Rubin

Overview of Split Sentencing Research October 25, 2006 Mark Rubin. Presentations given to subcommittee. Exploring the Relationship between Split Sentences and Probation Recidivism in Maine - July 27, 2006 Who gets a Split Sentence in Maine? - August 2, 2006

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Overview of Split Sentencing Research October 25, 2006 Mark Rubin

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  1. Overview of Split Sentencing Research October 25, 2006Mark Rubin

  2. Presentations given to subcommittee • Exploring the Relationship between Split Sentences and Probation Recidivism in Maine - July 27, 2006 • Who gets a Split Sentence in Maine? - August 2, 2006 • Who is getting revoked on probation? - September 21, 2006

  3. Study Parameters/Methodology • Examined 2004 and 2005 populations of individuals entering probation via : • Split Sentence (spent some time in jail or prison just before entering probation • Straight Probation (received a sentence of probation without any jail or prison time

  4. Exploring the relationship between sentence type, risk, recidivism, and revocations Examined the following variables in the analysis: • Risk Level (LSI-R scores) • Crime type (MEJIS index and Class) • Region • Jail/Prison split • Number of Priors • Demographic variables (gender, age, education, race,et al.) • Criminogenic factors, including criminal histories (number of priors) • Shock Sentence • Probation revocations by type of offense (new crime vs. technical) • Revocations by risk level • Revocation information by sentence type

  5. Who gets a Split Sentence?

  6. Twice as many split sentenced offenders entered probation in 2004 and 2005 as those with a straight probation sentence

  7. The likelihood of a split sentence correlates with LSI Rating

  8. Split sentences are the majority of sentences whether the crime is a Felony or a Misdemeanor

  9. There appear to be regional differences in sentencing practices

  10. Most offenders receive a split sentence of less than 45 days

  11. Offense types by LSI

  12. Exploring the Relationship between Split Sentences and Probation Recidivism

  13. Split Sentenced probationers have higher recidivism rates than probationers receiving a straight sentence

  14. The data suggests first time/one time offenders may have worse outcomes when receiving a split sentence versus straight probation

  15. Lower risk offenders appear to have statistically higher recidivism rates when receiving a split sentence

  16. Offenders convicted of certain crimes appear to have statistically higher recidivism rates when receiving a split sentence

  17. Recidivism rates are higher for shock sentences than straight probation, especially after 30 days.

  18. Concluding Thoughts • Split Sentence probationers appear to have higher recidivism rates than straight probationers even after accounting for specific characteristics. • However, sentencing practices are at best weakly related to a recidivist outcome. Other factors play a role, such as AFA, Priors, Current Age, Education, Married. • It appears that split sentencing has a more profound impact on lower risk offenders as to whether they recidivate.

  19. Who is getting revoked?

  20. Revocations rise dramatically as risk levels rise

  21. The higher the risk level of the offender the more likely s/he is to be revoked for a technical violation

  22. Split sentenced probationers have higher revocation rates

  23. Technical violations are the most common type of revocation violation regardless of sentence type

  24. Take away points on revocations • Half of the revocations are for technical violations • Administrative cases are 50% less likely to be revoked than moderate cases • Split Sentences have higher revocation rates than straight probation cases

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