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Linking P-20 Education Data to Workforce Data . Brian Jacob Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy University of Michigan March 6, 2014 Presentation to the Michigan P-20 Advisory Council . Agenda. Benefits of data linkage What other states are doing An example from Michigan
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Linking P-20 Education Data to Workforce Data Brian Jacob Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy University of Michigan March 6, 2014 Presentation to the Michigan P-20 Advisory Council
Agenda • Benefits of data linkage • What other states are doing • An example from Michigan • CAPSEE Project: Linking wage records with CC transcript data in Michigan • Some specific opportunities in Michigan • Questions/discussion
Benefits of data linkage • Labor market information (LMI) is important as an outcome as well as a contextual factor that predicts many early school outcomes • LMI as an outcome • Impact of CTE programs (high school or CC) • Long-term impact of elementary or secondary initiatives • Economic returns across different types of degrees • Link btw/ content and workforce prep • LMI as an independent variable • Importance of family income & parental employment in early schooling outcomes • Relationship between LMI and participation/success in early childhood education
Data Linking in Other States • Many states linking education and labor force data • TX and FL: long-standing P-20 -> Workforce (UI) links • WA recently added K-12 to PostSec-UI link • NC, VA, CA: long-standing links btw/ PostSec & UI • Analyses that utilize linked data • Do students’ college major choice respond to changes in wages? (Washington State) • What are the economic returns to CC degrees and certificates? (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, California) • What are the long-run economic benefits of starting at a 4-yr vs. 2-yr college? (Texas)
CAPSEE Michigan • CAPSEE (Center for Analysis of Postsecondary Education and Employment) • IES funded research center to explore the association between various postsecondary pathways and employment and earnings • Collaboration btw/ UM and 5 CCs in Michigan • Macomb, Oakland, Jackson, Washtenaw and Alpena • Motivating research questions • What are the economic returns to CC in Michigan? • Does this vary by award type (e.g., AA, cert.), field (e.g., allied health, advanced manufacturing), student demographics (e.g., age, gender)? • Quick turnaround analyses tailored to college-specific needs
CAPSEE Michigan: Data • Detailed student transcript data from 5 CCs from 2001-2011 • Includes info on course-taking, award receipt, student demographics, course of study, financial aidand remediation • Personal identifiers (including SSN) provided for matching purposes only • Matched to NSC records from 1995-2012 • Linked to UI wage records from 1998q2 – 2011q2 • We conducted the match ourselves on a non-networked computer in LARA’s office in Detroit • We just take the non-identified data back with us (no SSN’s out in the open) • Maintain data on secure servers at UM with access limited to a select set of researchers (who have all signed confidentiality agreements)
CAPSEE Michigan: Analysis • Multivariate regression to control for differences between individuals with and without CC degrees • Fixed effect regression models that compare an individual’s employment and earnings after she gets a degree with her own prior labor market outcomes • Matching estimators that compare individuals who receive a degree with others that look like them in terms of demographics and prior employment/earnings
Responding to CC Needs: Example 1 1. Online course taking at MCC • Between 2003 and 2010, share of students taking an online course in their 1st year rose from 6.5% to 15% (w/in 3 years from 13.4% to 23%) • Gap for women over men rose from 3% to 8% • Gap for 25+ year-olds vs. under 25 rose from 3% to 7% • Students online in their first year take ½ of first-year credits online. • Pass rates are 5-10% lower for students in online courses than for students in face-to-face courses • Online courses play an important role in allowing students to remain connected to the labor force – i.e., reduces the “opportunity cost” of college • Conditional on the total number of credits taken, students taking a higher fraction of courses online realize a lower drop in earnings while enrolled (relative to pre-enrollment)
Responding to CC Needs: Example 2 • 2. School-specific reports • Provided school specific measures of employment and earnings by degree and field of study • Hosted conference to help senior staff interpret results • We have continued to respond to follow-up requests
Responding to CC Needs: Example 2 2. School-specific reports
Future Plans:Automating links between CC and UI • Community colleges have reporting requirements • Gainful employment, WIA, Pell, etc. • They’re forced to use their own surveys to get these numbers. • LARA/DTMB has wage records for any of these students working in MI • The idea: automate the process and provide aggregate data • Colleges send lists of SSN’s to LARA/DTMB for selected student groups • LARA/DTMB sends back the share employed and median/mean earnings for that group of students • No individual records are ever sent • The program is automated so colleges just upload the list of SSN’s • The resulting data can be used by schools/researchers/gov’t
Automating links between CC and UI • California community colleges have something like this already: • http://salarysurfer.cccco.edu/SalarySurfer.aspx • And an even more detailed version at the college level: • http://datamart.cccco.edu/Outcomes/College_Wage_Tracker.aspx • From this site: • Students can look up pre- and post-award earnings, by degree. • Government researchers and policy makers can use this information to evaluate the effectiveness of programs in matching students to jobs. • Schools can use this the access to data for performance requirements, without their own surveys or ever having individual student outcomes.
Is this really possible in Michigan? • With the help of Tom Howell and others at CEPI & MDE, we have already made tremendous strides in linking K-20 data • CAPSEE Michigan has demonstrated the feasibility of linking CC-UI in a secure setting • While we are waiting for the Holy Grail, an independent, non-state entity (e.g., the Ed Policy Initiative at UM) can develop and host something like CA’s wage tracker • Michigan public colleges provide SSNs for data that already exists in STAR • Match to workforce data provided by LARA, following protocols established by CAPSEE • Develop website that will allow the public access to aggregated data with a minimum cell size
Questions? For more information on CAPSEE Michigan and related projects, see our website: Education Policy Initiative Ford School of Public Policy University of Michigan http://www.edpolicy.umich.edu/