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January 10-11 2009: The Winter Storm that “Clipped” the Tri-State

January 10-11 2009: The Winter Storm that “Clipped” the Tri-State. Patrick Maloit Richard Castro NOAA/NWS Upton, NY. Warning Decision Making Process 12z cycle 9 January 00z cycle 10 January – what changed 12z cycle 10 January – what changed What Actually Happened ?.

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January 10-11 2009: The Winter Storm that “Clipped” the Tri-State

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  1. January 10-11 2009: The Winter Storm that “Clipped” the Tri-State Patrick Maloit Richard Castro NOAA/NWS Upton, NY

  2. Warning Decision Making Process 12z cycle 9 January 00z cycle 10 January – what changed 12z cycle 10 January – what changed What Actually Happened ? Overview

  3. Warning Decision Making Process How soon is too soon for a warning? Is the event on a weekend? Once a watch/warning is up, how much do you change it? How much and what has changed from the previous thinking

  4. Warning Decision Making Process Looking at the data Are the features well captured by the observational network? Model comparison/confidence All about similarities and differences

  5. 12z Cycle on Friday January 9, 2009

  6. Water Vapor, and 500 mb Heights and Vorticity 12z 9 Jan 2009

  7. GFS/ECMWF/NAM500 Hgt 12z 9 Jan Sat 0z Jan 10 Fri 12z Jan 9

  8. GFS/ECMWF/NAM500 Hgt 12z 9 Jan Sun 0z Jan 11 Sat 12z Jan 10

  9. GFS/ECMWF/NAM500 Hgt 12z 9 Jan Sun 12z Jan 12

  10. GFS/ECMWF/NAMMSLP 12z 9 Jan Sat 0z Jan 10 Fri 12z Jan 9

  11. GFS/ECMWF/NAMMSLP 12z 9 Jan Sun 0z Jan 11 Sat 12z Jan 10

  12. GFS/ECMWF/NAMMSLP 12z 9 Jan Sun 12z Jan 12

  13. ECMWF500 MBHgt/Vort and300 mb PV - 12z 9 Jan Sat 12z Jan 10

  14. ECMWF500 MBHgt/Vort and300 mb PV - 12z 9 Jan Sun 00z Jan 11

  15. ECMWF500 MBHgt/Vort and300 mb PV - 12z 9 Jan Sun 12z Jan 11

  16. GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Hgt 12z 9 Jan Sun 06z Jan 11 Sun 00z Jan 11

  17. GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Hgt 12z 9 Jan Sun 12z Jan 11

  18. GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Temp 12z 9 Jan Sun 06z Jan 11 Sun 00z Jan 11

  19. GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Temp 12z 9 Jan Sun 12z Jan 11

  20. NAM Time/Hgt - LGA 12z 9 Jan

  21. NAM Time/Hgt - JFK 12z 9 Jan

  22. GFS/ECMWF/NAM24 Hr QPF 12z 9 Jan Sun 12z Jan 11

  23. The Afternoon Forecast – 9th Already had Watch in effect for entire CWA The fact it was a weekend necessitated going to Warnings this package Thermal Profile was warning/advisory line delineator

  24. Snowfall Forecast pm of 9th

  25. The Afternoon Forecast – 9th Winter Storm Warnings All of Southern Connecticut, The Lower Hudson Valley, Northeast New Jersey, Nassau County, Northern Suffolk County, NW City Boroughs (including Queens) Winter Weather Advisories Southern Suffolk County and Brooklyn + Staten Island

  26. 00z Cycle on January 10, 2009

  27. Water Vapor, and 500 mb Heights and Vorticity 00z 10 Jan 2009

  28. GFS/ECMWF/NAM500 Hgt 0z 10 Jan Sun 12z Jan 11

  29. GFS/ECMWF/NAMMSLP 0z 10 Jan Sun 12z Jan 11

  30. GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Hgt 0z 10 Jan Sun 12z Jan 11 Sun 00z Jan 11

  31. GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Temp 0z 10 Jan Sun 06z Jan 11

  32. GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Temp 0z 10 Jan Sun 12z Jan 11

  33. The Morning Forecast – 10th Based on thermal profiles, adjusted all Long Island and NYC, as well as Southern NE NJ Zones to an Advisory Warmer thermal profile also resulted in slight decrease in amounts

  34. Snowfall Forecast am of 10th

  35. The Morning Forecast – 10th Winter Storm Warnings All of Southern Connecticut, The Lower Hudson Valley, Northern Northeast New Jersey Winter Weather Advisories NYC, Long Island, Southern Northeast New Jersey

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