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Why?

Why?. Initial predictions will be lousy and probably worse than empirical models. BUT, one needs to start somewhere. Terrestrial weather predictions were laughable when they started but have now reached maturity. From: Kalnay, 2003. Validation.

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Why?

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  1. Why? • Initial predictions will be lousy and probably worse than empirical models. • BUT, one needs to start somewhere. Terrestrial weather predictions were laughable when they started but have now reached maturity. From: Kalnay, 2003

  2. Validation • The process of modelers providing the forecasts for validation has a number of advantages: • No need for other institutions to install and “learn” the model. • No need to adhere to strict standards before model is validated (pitfall in traditional approach). • Provides “blind study” for modelers who do not know who might scrutinize their output. • No need for the modelers to deal with validation data. • BUT, modelers need to be involved  funding, in order to get here: From: Kalnay, 2003

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