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Quality of the Products

Quality of the Products. Product Composition. Over water: Blended AMSU and SSM/I TPW Over Land: Barnes analyzed GPS TPW (first choice), or GOES Sounder PW (second choice). Accuracy. The blending algorithm combines different retrievals and does not change the accuracy of those retrievals.

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Quality of the Products

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  1. Quality of the Products

  2. Product Composition • Over water: • Blended AMSU and SSM/I TPW • Over Land: • Barnes analyzed GPS TPW (first choice), or • GOES Sounder PW (second choice)

  3. Accuracy • The blending algorithm combines different retrievals and does not change the accuracy of those retrievals. • Over water: 10% (about 3 mm on average) [Ralph Ferraro, personal communication; Ferraro et al., 2005: NOAA Operational Hydrological Products Derived From the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., 43, 1036–1049.] • Over land: • GPS data: ± 0.75–1.5 mm[Seth Gutman, personal communication; Smith et al., 2007: Short-Range Forecast Impact from Assimilation of GPS-IPW Observations into the Rapid Update Cycle. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2914–2930.] • GOES PW: ± 2 mm[Schmit et al., 2002: Validation and use of GOES Sounder moisture information. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 139–154.]

  4. Strengths • Combines data from six microwave instruments (NOAA 15, 16, 17, 18, MetOp-A, and DMSP F13), two infrared instruments (GOES East and West Sounders), and 24 GPS satellites into a single TPW product. TPW (mm)

  5. Strengths • Reduces artifacts due to differences between different satellites. (See next slide) SSM/I swaths TPW (mm) BEFORE Blending

  6. Strengths • After the blending algorithm is applied, the artifacts are largely eliminated, which leaves the forecaster free to concentrate on the meteorology of the situation. SSM/I swaths TPW (mm) AFTER Blending

  7. Weaknesses • No land data except over the CONUS, where the GSD GPS network operates and where the GOES Sounder operates. This will be fixed when we start using the MIRS data.

  8. John’s Slides With contributions from Sheldon

  9. Slides for SPSRB Discussing Blended TPW & TPW Anomaly Quality Jan. 28, 2009

  10. Use of the Blended TPW Products by Forecasters and Satellite Analysts 12 25 38 50 62 mm THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 650 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2008 VALID 00Z WED DEC 24 2008 - 00Z WED DEC 31 2008 MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTION SPREAD AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY WITH LARGER SCALE FEATURES AND EVOLUTIONS REMAIN SEEM QUITE LOW IN THISAMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTEREDNORTHEAST OF THE STATE DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORTMODERATE TRADES WITH RAINFALL FOCUSED OVER FAVORED WINDWARDTERRAIN...INITIALLY LIMITED BY RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER...A WESTWARD PATTERN RETROGRESSION SHOULD ALLOW THE MID-UPPER LEVELRIDGE TO SHIFT WEST OF THE STATE AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL NOW EAST OFTHE STATE NEAR 20N 142W CONINUES ITS WWD DRIFT TO A POSITION NEARTHE CENTRAL/SRN ISLANDS BY SAT. THIS LOW SEEMS QUITE WELLORGANIZED ON WATER VAPOR AND BLENDED TPW LOOPS.LATEST MODELTRENDS AND ESPECIALLY ECMWF ENSEMBLES NOW FAVOR A MORE ROBUSTFEATURE MOVING INTO THE ISLANDS AND STALLING. WHILE MOST GUIDANCESTILL EXPLICITLY HOLDS THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ANDHEAVIEST RAINFALL ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE STATE...THEY DO SEEM TOSUGGEST/HOLD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY UNDER THE LINGERING CLOSED LOWTO FAVOR AT LEAST A THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE DOWNPOURS INTOTHE CENTRAL/SRN ISLANDS SAT-TUE. SCHICHTEL Dec 23, 2008 SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES.. DATE/TIME 12/26/08 0612Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 0600Z KUSSELSON NOAA AMSU:0330Z/2330Z LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...INCREASING PW VALUES FROM THE EAST...INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM UPPER TROF...LOCAL HVY RAINS BIG ISLAND AND MAUI CONTINUING... . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BEEN WATCHING UPPER LOW TO THE EAST CONTINUE IT WESTWARD TRACK THE PAST FEW DAYS AND NOW APPROACHING THE BIG ISLAND. AS THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING...BLENDED TPW LOOP HAS BEEN INCREASING ITS MOISTURE JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION OF MODERATE MOISTURE WITH 1.7" MAX PW VALUES NOW OVER SPREADING EAST COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THAT AT LEAST 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.LATEST 00Z RADIOSONDE SOUNDING FROM HILO SHOWED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMP ABOUT -42C OR 280MB AND EASILY BEING REACHED WITH LATEST IR GIVING A COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMP OF -46C SO CERTAINLY ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCAL HVY RAINS AND HEIGHTENED FF THREAT. AND THINK WARMER TOPS OVER ON THE EAST SIDE OF MAUI AT -33C AND -35C COMING IN RIGHT BEHIND WILL CONTINUE LOCAL HVY RAIN THREAT THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...SEE ANALYSIS GRAPHIC ON HOME PAGE SHORTLY AT ADDRESS BELOW... Issued by NWS WFO Honolulu: Dec 26, 2008 09:10 UTC NESDIS just issued a satellite precipitation estimate indicating that the TPW has been increasing just east of the Big Island and there has been a considerable expansion of moderate moisture with 1.7 inch Max TPW values now overspreading the east coast of the Big Island. NESDIS also indicates the east side of Maui will continue to have a threat for locally heavy rain most of tonight. Experimental product often used by NOAA forecasters for several years

  11. Blended TPW Strengths/Weaknesses * Topics being addressed at CIRA in 2009.

  12. TPW Anomaly Product Strengths/Weaknesses

  13. Multi-sensor blended product Single sensor microwave product no data 6 12.5 25 38 50 62.5 mm Benefits of Blended TPW Product (over a single sensor product) • One unified product with less data gaps • Elimination of bias between data sets • Critical land TPW coverage over Western Hemisphere • More frequent updates with new data • Faster processing = faster delivery Reduced analysis time = more lead time for watches/warnings

  14. Blended TPW Anomaly Product 10-18utc Oct 22, 2007 web at: http://amsu.cira.colostate.edu/gpstpw McIDAS users access: PLR/BLTPWANMCIRA percent of normal • Produced by dividing TPW Product by Climo 1988-1999 baseline through NASA Water Vapor Project • Brown areas below normal ; Aqua above normal ; Yellow above 200% • Can approximate 150% with 2 standard deviations above normal • Current product very good over ocean; pretty good over hills and flat terrain; questionable over mountains

  15. Blended SSM/I - AMSU - GPS Total Precipitable Water Loop 0 6 12.5 25 37.5 50 62.5 75 mm 00 UTC Oct 20 to 18 UTC Oct 23, 2006 Blended SSM/I - AMSU - GPS Total Precipitable Water (TPW) Anomaly Loop

  16. References for the Blended Total Precipitable Water Product Kidder, S.Q. and A.S. Jones, 2007: A blended satellite Total Precipitable Water product for operational forecasting. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Tech., 20 pages. html version at: http://amsu.cira.colostate.edu/kidder/Blended_TPW.pdf Forsythe, J., S. Kidder, S. Kusselson, A.S. Jones, T.H. Vonder Haar, 2009: Increasing the land coverage of blended multisensor total precipitable water products for weather analysis. 16th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, Phoenix, Arizona. http://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_149348.htm References for Blended Total Precipitable Water Product Applications Paper at:ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/Publications/4th_NPOESS_Symposium_extended_abstract_Jan_2008.docPoster at:ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/Posters/Conferences/NPOESS_Sym_2008_Kusselson R2rev.ppt Magazine Article: CIRA, volume 29, Spring 2008, pages 8-11. html version at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/publications/newsletter/spring2008.pdf Sheldon Kusselson AMS 2009 presentation is at: ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/Presentations/Conferences/AMS2009.ppt Sheldon Kusselson AMS 2009 extended abstract: ftp://gp16.ssd.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/Publications/23Hydro_Jan_2009_extended_abstract.doc

  17. Backup Slides

  18. Compare and Contrast ~ 08 UTC June 19, 2008 04-11 UTC June 19, 2008 trough Jet Weak jet trough = = = = = Weak TPW plume MCS Max PW PW min = = = = = = = front trough Subtropical Jet Tropical wave - - - - - middle and high level moisture ITCZ with low level moisture ITCZ with low level moisture trough Jet = = = = = Jet - - - - - front dry 12 25 38 50 65 mm Dry Moist Blended Microwave and GPS-MET/GOES Sounder Total Precipitable Water (TPW) Product Imagery Geostationary 6.7 Micron Water Vapor Imagery • Water vapor/moisture centered 3 to 8 km • Total atmospheric water vapor/moisture • Senses mid/high level water vapor • Senses low/mid level moisture • Data over land and water • Microwave over water; GPS and GOES overland • Best for locating moisture features (ITCZ, fronts, etc) • Best for upper level destabilizing features • Resolution = 45-60km mapped to 16km • Resolution = 4km • New productavailable every 15/30 minutes • Newproduct available every 2 hours or less

  19. Supplement Familiar with Other Types of Satellites and Sensors GOES IR NOAA Microwave Rain Rates Blended Total Water Vapor Quikscat Winds Microwave Winds 12 25 38 50 62 mm Microwave Rain Rates GOES Water Vapor GOES Visible

  20. Blended Total PW Anomaly Product for Heavy Rainfall Forecasts Approaching Upper level Destabilization Water Vapor 00utc Feb 16 12utc Feb 16-12utc Feb 17, 2008 Blended Total Precipitable Water Anomaly Product 18utc Feb 16 00utc Feb 17 06utc Feb 17 12utc Feb 17 The Heavy Precipitation Event Precipitation Totals Moisture Anomaly Organization Blended TPW Anomaly Product 12utc Feb 15 00utc Feb 16 12utc Feb 16

  21. Future Improvements to the Products Additional Satellites - DMSP SSMI/S F-16 and future SSMI/S’ - NPOESS Preparatory Project (NOAA N’) 2011 - Future METOP AMSU satellites in 2011 and beyond - NPOESS 2013 and beyond DMSP SSM/I F-13 NOAA -15, - GPM 2013 and beyond 16, METOP - A 17, 18 TPW overland -Additional TPW data from GPS-MET sites in W Hemisphere - Merging of microwave over land with GPS-MET and GOES Sounder - Addition of microwave imagery overland in

  22. Total Precipitable Water Product Imagery can be found at: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html click on AMSU/SSMI TPW http://amsu.cira.colostate.edu/TPW30 day loop, 5 day loop of globe; 5 day loop of sectors of globe http://amsu.cira.colostate.edu/gpstpwNorthern part of the Western Hemisphere 3- day loop, every 6 hours: Blended Total Precipitable Water (TPW) Product TPW Anomaly Product Analysis from the May 20 live over-the-internet VISITview satellite weather briefing of the WMO VL Focus Group of Central and South American countries. Blended SSM/I - AMSU/METOP - GPS and GOES Sounder Total Precipitable Water (TPW) Product 4

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