Mapping NACP Progress onto Long-term Carbon Cycle Science Goals

Mapping NACP Progress onto Long-term Carbon Cycle Science Goals Anna M. Michalak

Poster Session Titles – A • Diagnosis of the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle • Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions • Vulnerability of Carbon Stocks to Change • Ecosystem Impacts of Change • Carbon Management • Decision Support

Poster Session Titles – B • Diagnosis • Attribution • Tools / Instruments / Data • Prediction • Decision Support • Site Synthesis • Regional Synthesis • MCI Synthesis • Non-CO2 Synthesis • Coastal Synthesis

Poster Session Titles – C • Site Synthesis • The Linked Carbon and Water Cycles -- The Atmosphere-Land-Ocean Continuum • Remote Sensing & Disturbance • The Tropical and Sub-tropical Carbon Cycle • Model Evaluation and Data Assimilation • Science to Inform Carbon Management and Future Projections • The State of the Science in Assessing the North American Carbon Budget • Estimating Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Fluxes, their Uncertainties, and their Implications

Poster Session Titles – D • Atmospheric Measurements and Analyses • Terrestrial and Riverine Measurements and Inventories, including Flux Measurements • Coastal and Oceanic Measurements • Mid-Continent Intensive Study • Managed Forests and Woodlands • Arctic and Boreal Ecosystems • Integrating Land, Coastal Margins, and Oceans • Regional Analyses • Continental Carbon Budgets and Analyses • Carbon Management and Decision Support • Reconciling Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches to Estimating Carbon Fluxes • Integrating Social Science and Economics into NACP • Data Systems/Management

Poster Session Titles – A • Diagnosis of the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle (103) • Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions (35) • Vulnerability of Carbon Stocks to Change (44) • Ecosystem Impacts of Change (24) • Carbon Management (20) • Decision Support (19)

Poster Session Titles – B • Diagnosis (30) • Attribution (45) • Tools / Instruments / Data (16) • Prediction (21) • Decision Support (21) • Site Synthesis (8) • Regional Synthesis (27) • MCI Synthesis (9) • Non-CO2 Synthesis (5) • Coastal Synthesis (17)

Poster Session Titles – C • Site Synthesis (2) • The Linked Carbon and Water Cycles -- The Atmosphere-Land-Ocean Continuum (27) • Remote Sensing & Disturbance (34) • The Tropical and Sub-tropical Carbon Cycle (2) • Model Evaluation and Data Assimilation ((16) • Science to Inform Carbon Management and Future Projections (39) • The State of the Science in Assessing the North American Carbon Budget (21) • Estimating Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Fluxes, their Uncertainties, and their Implications (12)

Poster Session Titles – D • Atmospheric Measurements and Analyses (14) • Terrestrial and Riverine Measurements and Inventories, including Flux Measurements (49) • Coastal and Oceanic Measurements (14) • Mid-Continent Intensive Study (8) • Managed Forests and Woodlands (9) • Arctic and Boreal Ecosystems (9) • Integrating Land, Coastal Margins, and Oceans (4) • Regional Analyses (28) • Continental Carbon Budgets and Analyses (38) • Carbon Management and Decision Support (10) • Reconciling Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches to Estimating Carbon Fluxes (14) • Integrating Social Science and Economics into NACP (1) • Data Systems/Management (3)

And the answer is… D B C A

US Carbon Cycle Science Plan Goals, 1999 • Quantify and understand the Northern Hemisphere terrestrial carbon sink. • Quantify and understand the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean. • Determine the impacts of past and current land use on the carbon budget. • Provide greatly improved projections of future atmospheric concentrations of CO2. • Develop the scientific basis for societal decisions about management of CO2 and the carbon cycle. Origin of the NACP Origin of OCB CCSP 1999 led to the creation of the NACP and OCB. Additional goals didn’t create specific research programs. Slide from: Ken Davis

Implementation Strategy, 2005 NACP Questions • What is the carbon balance of North America and adjacent oceans? What are the geographic patterns of fluxes of CO2, CH4, and CO? How is the balance changing over time? (“Diagnosis”) • What processes control the sources and sinks of CO2, CH4, and CO, and how do the controls change with time? (“Attribution”) • Are there potential surprises (could sources increase or sinks disappear)? (“Prediction”) • How can we enhance and manage long-lived carbon sinks ("sequestration"), and provide resources to support decision makers? (“Decision support”) Current marching orders for the NACP. Slide from: Ken Davis

A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan (2011) Available at: http://carboncyclescience.gov/

Working Group Membership

Overall Directions • Many research priorities identified in the 1999 Plan remain important • Additional priorities are also needed, including: • Effects of human activities • Vulnerability and resilience of ecosystems • Efficacy and consequences of carbon management policies, strategies, and technologies • Additional emphasis is also needed to: • Evaluate uncertainties in our understanding of the global carbon cycle • Coordinate research across scientific disciplines • An optimally designed and integrated system of sustained observations is critical to progress Available at: http://carboncyclescience.gov/

Fundamental Science Questions 2011 U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan: • How do natural processes and human actions affect the carbon cycle, on land, in the atmosphere, and in the oceans? • How do policy and management decisions affect the levels of the primary carbon-containing gases, carbon dioxide and methane, in the atmosphere? • How are ecosystems, species, and natural resources impacted by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the associated changes in climate, and by carbon management decisions? Available at: http://carboncyclescience.gov/

Six Goals • Provide clear and timely explanation of past and current variations observed in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 - and the uncertainties surrounding them. • Understand and quantify the socio-economic drivers of carbon emissions, and develop transparent methods to monitor and verify those emissions. • Determine and evaluate the vulnerability of carbon stocks and flows to future climate change and human activity, emphasizing potential positive feedbacks to sources or sinks that make climate stabilization more critical or more difficult. Available at: http://carboncyclescience.gov/

Six Goals (continued) • Predict how ecosystems, biodiversity, and natural resources will change under different CO2 and climate change scenarios. • Determine the likelihood of ‘success’ and the potential for side effects of carbon-management pathways that might be undertaken to achieve a low-carbon future. • Address decision maker needs for current and future carbon cycle information and provide data and projections that are relevant, credible, and legitimate for their decisions. Available at: http://carboncyclescience.gov/

Research Goals and Program Elements Available at: http://carboncyclescience.gov/

Diagnosis of the Atmospheric Carbon CycleObserving and modeling variability and mechanisms of carbon-cycle exchange in the Earth system Drivers of Anthropogenic EmissionsUnderstanding and quantifying socioeconomic drivers of carbon emissions, and developing transparent methods to monitor and verify those emissions Vulnerability of Carbon Stocks to ChangeEvaluating the vulnerability of carbon stocks to climate change Ecosystem Impacts of ChangePredicting how ecosystems, biodiversity, and natural resources will change under different CO2 and climate change scenarios Carbon ManagementEstimating success and side effects of carbon management Decision SupportFulfilling decision maker needs for current and future carbon cycle information

Poster Session Titles – D (2007) • Atmospheric Measurements and Analyses (14) • Terrestrial and Riverine Measurements and Inventories, including Flux Measurements (49) • Coastal and Oceanic Measurements (14) • Mid-Continent Intensive Study (8) • Managed Forests and Woodlands (9) • Arctic and Boreal Ecosystems (9) • Integrating Land, Coastal Margins, and Oceans (4) • Regional Analyses (28) • Continental Carbon Budgets and Analyses (38) • Carbon Management and Decision Support (10) • Reconciling Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches to Estimating Carbon Fluxes (14) • Integrating Social Science and Economics into NACP (1) • Data Systems/Management (3)

Poster Session Titles – B (2009) • Diagnosis (30) • Attribution (45) • Tools / Instruments / Data (16) • Prediction (21) • Decision Support (21) • Site Synthesis (8) • Regional Synthesis (27) • MCI Synthesis (9) • Non-CO2 Synthesis (5) • Coastal Synthesis (17)

Poster Session Titles – C (2011) • Site Synthesis (2) • The Linked Carbon and Water Cycles -- The Atmosphere-Land-Ocean Continuum (27) • Remote Sensing & Disturbance (34) • The Tropical and Sub-tropical Carbon Cycle (2) • Model Evaluation and Data Assimilation ((16) • Science to Inform Carbon Management and Future Projections (39) • The State of the Science in Assessing the North American Carbon Budget (21) • Estimating Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Fluxes, their Uncertainties, and their Implications (12)

Poster Session Titles – A (2013) • Diagnosis of the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle (103) • Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions (35) • Vulnerability of Carbon Stocks to Change (44) • Ecosystem Impacts of Change (24) • Carbon Management (20) • Decision Support (19)

Poster Topics at NACP AIM Meetings

Changes U.S. CO2 emissions are dropping. California and the EPA are regulating GHG emissions. Shale gas extraction has grown dramatically / gas leakage is a significant new issue. The age of satellite CO2 and CH4 measurement is upon us. A private-sector GHG measurement network exists. Considerable interest in methods to measure anthropogenic GHG emissions has emerged from the US government. Slide from: Ken Davis

A completely biased list of … Some topics that caught my attention…

Some topics that caught my attention…

Terrestrial sink (2000-2005): meta-synthesis of NACP regional interimsynthesis Slide from: Tony King

Two slides from Eric Kort presentation removed. Detecting policy-relevant megacity greenhouse gas emission changes from space and earth-based observations (Eric Kort, Wayne Angevine, Phil DeCola, Riley Duren, Christian Frankenberg, Charles Miller, Sally Newman, Tomohiro Oda, Coleen Roehl, Paul Wennberg, Debra Wunch)

Slide from Chip Miller presentation removed. The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE): Results from the 2012 Alaska Science Flights (Charles Miller, Steven Dinardo, CARVE Science Team)

Approach: Coupled Terrestrial-Ocean Models DLEM terrestrial outputs linked to a physical-biogeochemical model to characterize coastal carbon fluxes and ecosystem dynamics Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model used to estimate spatial and temporal patterns of delivery of water, carbon, and nitrogen and compared to data-based observations Modeling efforts will be supported by field survey-based and satellite-based observations of carbon fluxes and other biogeochemical processes Tian et al., 2010a,b; Tian et al.,2011, Tian et al.,2012 Hyun and He (2010); Xue et al. in prep Hoffman et al., Ann. Rev., 2011; Fennel et al., 2011 and in prep. Slide from: Steve Lohrenz

Two slides from Christopher Schwalm presentation removed. The turn of the century drought in western North America (Christopher Schwalm, Christopher Williams, Kevin Schaefer, Dennis Baldocchi, Thomas Black, Allen Goldstein, Beverly Law, Walt Oechel, K.T. Paw U, Russell Scott, BardanGhimire)

Probability distribution of Canada’s projected managed forest ecosystem GHG balance, 2008-12 Source: Kurz et al., PNAS 2008 2006Making a decision • The analysis suggested a 100% probability that the managed forest would be a source in 2008-12 due to NDs Canada decided to not include the managed forest in its Kyoto accounting Slide from: Tony Lemprière

Mapping NACP Progress onto Long-term Carbon Cycle Science Goals