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Disclaimer ”This presentation may contain statements that express management’s expectations about future events or results rather than historical facts. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements, and CVRD cannot give assurance that such statements will prove correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors: relating to the Brazilian economy and securities markets, which exhibit volatility and can be adversely affected by developments in other countries; relating to the iron ore business and its dependence on the global steel industry, which is cyclical in nature; and relating to the highly competitive industries in which CVRD operates. For additional information on factors that could cause CVRD’s actual results to differ from expectations reflected in forward-looking statements, please see CVRD’s reports filed with the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.”
Agenda • Highlights • Delivering profitable growth • A good business outlook is supported by the long cycle
Highlights • An outstanding performance. • Fundamentals better than they have been in many years. Current cycle is one of the strongest since late 19th century. • Good strategy execution is allowing us to explore growth opportunities wisely. • Disciplined capital management creates highly competitive growth platforms and high return on invested capital. • Powerful cash flow and good financial policy generate a healthier balance sheet.
Sales in a strong growth path • An all-time high revenue, US$ 2.3 billion, with qoq growth (12.5%) mostly driven by larger volumes (71%). In 000’ tons a million of ntk
Ferrous minerals accounted for 69% of revenues. China is an important growth driver, but accounts for only 11% of revenues 9M04 Gross Revenues: US$ 6.051 billion By product By geography
Iron ore and pellets shipments reached an all-time high in 3Q04 million tons 116.7 60.4 55.9 55.6 148.7 52.9 46.6 42.5 164.2 41.5 186.2 130.6 169.2 CAGR 00-04E = 9.7%
CVRD railroads transported a record volume of general cargo for clients Billion of ntk CAGR 00-04E = 9.8%
Operational excellence across-the-board adjusted EBIT margin by business area
An outstanding earnings performance among main metals and mining companies reporting quarterly Market Capas of September 30, 2004 US$ billion 3Q04 Net EarningsUS$ million Source: Bloomberg LP and company reports
To stay at the lowest end of the industry cost curve is key to weather the downcycle and to leverage the upcycle Net earnings US$ million
Despite the BRL appreciation against the USD, quarterly cash generation hits the one billion dollar mark. Ten quarters of consecutive growth LTM adjusted(2) EBITDAUS$ billion
Investments are changing CVRD profile: cash flow became much more powerful and generated from a more diversified set of sources Sources of cash generation 1Q02 Adjusted EBITDA 3Q04 Adjusted EBITDA US$ 397 million US$ 1.007 billion
Capex reached US$ 1.27 billion in the first nine months of 2004, with four major projects delivered CAPEX 9M04 US$ 1.270 billion Main projects delivered Pier III PDM Carajás 70 Mt Candonga Sossego Growth capex US$ 798 million On track Fabrica Nova I Carajás 85 Mt Brucutu I Fazendão Itabira Alunorte 4&5 Paragominas I Taquari-Vassouras Aimorés Capim Branco I&II Stay-in-business capex US$ 472 million
Capital allocation discipline and good strategy execution spearheaded constantly high performance Return on invested capital a Annualized
Powerful cash generation allows CVRD to finance growth initiatives and to meet shareholders’ dividend expectations 2004 dividend US$ 0.68 per share Dividend growth 2004/2003 +15.7% 2003/2002 +12.1%
A good business outlook is supported by the long cycle
After growing at 5% per year, a 30-year high, global economy recovery reached a mature stage Global PMI Source: JPMorgan
We expect global GDP growth rate to stay above long-term trend in the near future Global GDP growth % CAGR 1970 - 2003 = 3.6% Source: IMF and CVRD
Some indicators are signalling that a Chinese soft landing is becoming more likely Fixed asset investment Bank credit YoY% YoY% Source: CEIC
China’s GDP growth is slowly cooling down. We expect growth rate to converge to 7% per year GDP growth YoY % Source: CEIC and CVRD
Apparent steel consumption is forecast to continue to grow faster than global GDP CAGR 1974-94 = 0.0% - 1994-04E = 2.9% CAGR 1974-94 = 7.9% - 1994-04E = 8.4% Million tons +5.1% +7.6% +10.3% +12.9% Source: IISI and CVRD
Global seaborne iron ore demand is expected to follow above long-term trend growth Million tons CAGR 1990-04E = 3.9% CAGR 1990-04E = 20.7% +5.9% +10.8% +15.4% +31.8% Source: CVRD
Aluminum inventories are dwindling as global demand is growing at almost 10% per year Source: IAI, LME, Comex and Bloomberg
We expect global aluminum market to remain in deficit in 2005 000’ tons Source: CRU and CVRD
The outlook for the next 12 months is for continuing tightness in the alumina market Source: Metal Bulletin, LME and Bloomberg
Copper inventories continue to be depleted. Low inventories give support to next year’s prices Source: Bloomberg
CVRD – A Global Leader www.cvrd.com.br e-mail: rio@cvrd.com.br
Appendix Reconciliation of non-GAAP information and comparable GAAP information • (1) Adjusted EBIT (US$ million)3Q03 2Q04 3Q04 • Net operating revenues 1,432 1,920 2,173 • COGS (812) (912) (1,053) • SG&A expenses (74) (106) (112) • Research and development (22) (27) (36) • Other Operating Expenses (23) (43) (86) • Operating income (Adjusted EBIT) 501832 886 • (2) Adjusted EBITDA (US$ million) • Reconciliation between adjusted EBITDA vs. operating cash flow • Operating Cash Flow 435700 1,107 • Income tax (41) 41 285 • Monetary and Foreign Exchange Losses 44 (46) 41 • Financial Expenses 62 60 113 • Net Working Capital 140 221 (436) • Others (10) (5) (103) • Adjusted EBITDA 630 971 1,007
Appendix Reconciliation of non-GAAP information and comparable GAAP information • (3) Gross Debt / LTM Adjusted EBITDA3Q03 2Q04 3Q04 • Gross Debt / LTM Adjusted EBITDA (x) 2.15 1.55 1.34 • Gross Debt / LTM Operating Cash Flow (x) 2.46 2.01 1.51 • (4) LTM Adjusted EBITDA / LTM Interest Expense • LTM Adjusted EBITDA / LTM Interest Expenses (x) 10.15 12.94 12.94 • LTM Operating Profit / LTM Interest Expenses (X) 8.09 10.26 10.64 • (5) Gross Debt / Enterprise value • Gross Debt / Enterprise value (x) 0.24 0.22 0.16 • Gross debt / Total assets (x) 0.37 0.36 0.30 • Enterprise Value = Market Capitalization + Net Debt