Authors George Craig, Evelyne Richard, David Richardson David Burridge, Sarah Jones

1. European Regional Activities Authors George Craig, Evelyne Richard, David Richardson David Burridge, Sarah Jones Frederic Atger, Martin Ehrendorfer, Martti Heikinheimo, Brian Hoskins, Andrew Lorenc John Methven , Tiziana Paccagnella, Jean Pailleux, Florence Rabier, Mark Roulston, Roger Saunders, Richard Swinbank, Stefano Tibaldi, Heini Wernli

2. European Regional Committee • Sarah Jones (KIT, Germany, Chair) • Stefan Klink (EUCOS) • Detlev Majewski (Deutscher Wetterdienst) • Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIMC, Italy, TIGGE-LAM) • Florence Rabier (Meteo France, DAOS, WGNE) • David Richardson (ECMWF, GIFS-TIGGE) • Johannes Schmetz (EUMETSAT) • Richard Swinbank (UK Met Office, GIFS/TIGGE) • Olivier Talagrand (Institute Laplace, France, PDP) • Heini Wernli (ETH, Switzerland, PDP) • Consider representation from: • Polar community • SERA • Eastern Europe

3. THORPEX in Europe • Significantcontributions in all areasof THORPEX (DAOS, GIFS-TIGGE, PDP) • Strong THORPEX communities in operational andacademiccentres (e.g. Data Targeting System, TIGGE and TIGGE-LAM, YOTC) • Currentdedicatedfundingfor THORPEX projects: PANDOWAE, PREVASSAMBLE, DIAMET, GEOWOW • Leadershipof / supportfor THORPEX fieldprograms (e.g. CONCORDIASI, T-PARC, T-NAWDEX pilotflights) • Collaborationwithother THORPEX regions

4. 640 Dropsondes released over Antarctica(20100923-20101201) Sea-Ice limit CONCORDIASI (see DAOS Report)

5. CONCORDIASI • Concordiasi provided an unprecedented data coverage of meteorological observations over Antarctica • Both dropsonde and gondola information seem to have a positive impact on forecast performance (preliminary results from NRL, DWD and MF) • Gondola temperature data at 60hPa shows the largest model errors in areas of strong gravity-wave activity • Dropsonde information confirms statistics obtained with radiosondes and provide a more global view • Most models have problems predicting the lowest level temperatures

6. EUROSIP multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasting with ocean-atmosphere models Three European models so far: ECMWF Met Office Meteo-France Germany planning to contribute NCEP has just become an associate partner Not yet integrated into system An evolving system Real-time since mid-2005 Common operational schedule (products released at 12Z on 15th) Monthly mean data in ECMWF operational archive (daily from some partners)

7. PREVASSEMBLE • Supported by the French AgenceNationale de la Recherchefor a four-year period (2009-2012) • Study of all aspects of ensemble methods, for both assimilation and prediction in meteorology and oceanography • Partners: • Institut Pierre Simon Laplace(IPSL, Paris, Leader O. Talagrand) • Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (INRIA, Rennes, F. Le Gland) • Météo-France (Toulouse, G. Desroziers).

8. PREVASSEMBLE • The main results so far for THORPEX:  • Saturation of prediction ensembles. Objective evaluation scores for ensemble prediction saturate for ensemble size 30~50. This results from the fact that only probabilities for events or probability distributions for small-dimensional variables can be objectively validated. This has significant implications for the design of ensemble prediction system. • Ensemble variational assimilation.The ensemble variational assimilationAEARP has been implemented for estimating flow-dependent background error variances and correlations in ARPEGE, and defining the initial conditions of the ensemble prediction system PEARP. The impact is positive for both applications.

9. PREVASSEMBLE • Quantification of model error for ensemble assimilation and prediction. The evolved analysis error covariance provided by AEARP can be compared with the observed covariance of the total forecast error. This can provide an estimate of the model error covariance. This approach has been implemented in both AEARP and PEARP systems, with positive impacts. • Other work on the bayesian character of ensemble variational assimilation, on the mathematical properties of Ensemble Kalman filter and of particle filters, and on assimilation of images of the oceanic circulation.

10. PredictabilityANdDynamics OfWeather Systems in theAtlantic-European Sector DFG Research Unit 2008 – 2014 www.pandowae.de

11. Highlights of Phase 1 • 5 Postdocs, 7 Ph.D. Students, Project manager • Collaboration with DWD, ECMWF, MeteoFrance, EUCOS and many colleagues at academic institutions • Dedicated Young Scientists programme • 7 Ph.D. and 7 Masters students have graduated / will graduate this year • 10 Peer reviewed publications appeared / in press

12. Phase 1 Research Area Joint Projects Upper-level Rossby waves Moist processes and diabaticRossby waves Glatt, I., A. Dörnbrack, S. C. Jones, J. H. Keller, O. Martius , A. Müller , D. Peters, V. Wirth, Rossby Wave Train Diagnostics: An Intercomparison of Different Methods. Tellus A, in press. Grams, C. M., H. Wernli, S. C. Jones, M. Boettcher, J. Campa, U. Corsmeier, J. H. Keller, C.-J. Lenz, and L. Wiegand, 2010: From the extratropical transition of Hanna (2008) to a Mediterranean cyclone: the key role of diabatic processes. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., in press. Adaptivity and Ensembles Harnisch, F., G. Craig, D. Anwender, S.C. Jones, S. Lang, J. Keller, M. Weissmann, L. Wiegand, paper in preparation.

13. Phase 2 (2011-2014) • Core of PANDOWAE will continueas in Phase 1 • Partners: KIT, Uni Mainz, Uni Munich, IAP Kühlungsborn, ETH Zürich, Uni Bern, DWD • Fundingfor Project Manager, 5 Postdocs, 6 Ph.D. Students, • Young Scientists Programme, Workshops • Wealth of national and international collaborations • DWD and ECMWF remain vitally important partners • Seek to develop new links to MeteoSchweiz PANDOWAE

14. New Research Themes New priorities in THORPEX: sourcesof model error (link to WGNE), seasonalprediction (link to WCRP) Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) • New topics in PANDOWAE: • Blocking • Rossbywaveguide • Sub-seasonal time scales • stratosphericinfluence • small-scaleprocesses in tropopauseregion • YOTC • tropicalconvection • PDP / SERA pilotproject

15. GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water) • EU-funded FP7 project beginning September 2011, Weather component led by David Richardson, Partners ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France, KIT • Significant European contribution to the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) by improving the overall quality of the current GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI), addressing access to data, usability and interoperability

16. GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water) • GEOWOW will: • significantly enhance the accessibility of the TIGGE archive at ECMWF for the wider user community, in particular the ability to efficiently access long time series of forecast data at user-specified locations • promote the wider use of TIGGE data for research across a range of GEO Societal Benefit Areas and show how the TIGGE archive can be used to develop ensemble products for different applications • demonstrate the potential use of such ensemble products, with a focus on severe weather, in close liaison with the WMO SWFDPs.

17. NERC Storm Risk Mitigation Programme 2009-2014 September 2010

18. Links to other initiatives: HYMEX Better understanding of the intense events: processes and contribution to the trend

19. Links to other initiatives: DWD Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research • Initiated by DWD Scientific Advisory Board led by Gerhard Adrian and Clemens Simmer • 5 DWD / University collaborative research groups: • Atmospheric dynamics and their predictability • Data assimilation • Model development • Climate monitoring and diagnostics • Ideal use of information provided through weather forecasting and climate monitoring to the benefit of the general public September 2010

20. First THORPEX European Regional Meeting Karlsruhe, Germany, 24-27 May 2011 • Aims: • to review progress in European THORPEX research • to strengthen existing collaborations and initiate new collaborations within the European THORPEX community • to identify necessary revisions to the THORPEX European Plan • to discuss European involvement within new THORPEX initiatives

21. First THORPEX European Regional Meeting Karlsruhe, Germany, 24-27 May 2011 • Funded by DFG, KIT, EUMETSAT, THORPEX IPO, EMS Young Scientist Travel Award • Local Organisation Aurelia Müller (PANDOWAE) • 74 participants from 7 European countries and 2 European Institutions • Talks, posters, lots of informal discussion • Break out groups reviewed status of European plan http://www.pandowae.de/en/newsevents/thorpex-erm

22. First THORPEX European Regional Meeting: recommendations of DAOS Breakout group • Coordination with field programs: data to GTS, publish results, DAOS webpage to advertise field campaigns and data monitoring • 2-way interaction with data producers: rapid-scan satellite data to be used for field campaigns, and field campaign extra data to be provided to data producers to validate their retrievals • coordinated investigation of Forecast Sensitivity to Observations -focus on the Tropics and poles • Intercomparison of cloudy radiances should be continued. • Data impact / forecast sensitivity of observations on fine scales for HyMeX

23. First THORPEX European Regional Meeting: recommendations of PDP Breakout group • Revisited actions in European Plan: • T-NAWDEX: strong interest to have international field experiment in 2014/15. Planning with North American colleagues, NMHSs, EUMETSAT • Specific scientific challenges: add convection-resolving models, promote use of existing data sets (YOTC, T-PARC, etc.) • SERA/PDP pilot project: difficult currently no links to SERA groups; possible sectors are renewable energy / insurance / airchemistry •  Cooperation with WGNE should continue; new focus on model errors  • Link to other regions through SWFDPs

24. First THORPEX European Regional Meeting: recommendations of TIGGE Breakout group • TIGGE actionsexamined, combinedandprioritised: • Establish infrastructure for the exchange of ensemble forecast data and provide data to users. • Develop data access agreements to support TIGGE and the GIFS development project. • Establish a European data set for objective verification. • Investigate ensemble data assimilation methods and the development of initial perturbation methods. • Develop stochastic physical parameterizations. • Develop a posteriori calibration methods to correct forecast errors and combine ensemble forecasts • Develop methods to evaluate the performance of ensemble prediction systems • Determine optimal use of resources. • Application of TIGGE data for GIFS development project The first three priority areas are Tropical cyclones, Precipitation, Surface winds. • Develop dynamically oriented diagnostics • Use TIGGE data in other application areas. • Evaluate the performance of European LAM EPS for forecasting different type of Severe/High Impact Weather Events outside Europe.

25. First THORPEX European Regional Meeting: overall recommendations • Cross-cutting topics between all working groups are ensemble data assimilation and verification were seen as. • Joint workshop of THORPEX and the WWRP Verification working group was proposed • Involvement of colleagues from eastern Europe in the THORPEX European activities should be enhanced. • Links to SERA needed, e.g. projects related to renewable energy, flood forecasts for HYMEX or the insurance/reinsurance industry. A useful, productive and enjoyable meeting ERM Meetings should be continued (when, where and who?) Support of THORPEX IPO for such activities essential