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Historical Emission of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

Historical Emission of Anthropogenic Black Carbon. Country-base historical inventory of Fossil fuel combustion constructed from UN Energy Statistics, IEA Energy Balances, International Historical Statistics

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Historical Emission of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

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  1. Historical Emission of Anthropogenic Black Carbon • Country-base historical inventory of • Fossil fuel combustion constructed from UN Energy Statistics, IEA Energy Balances, International Historical Statistics • Agricultural waste burning constructed from FAOSTAT, FAO Production Yearbook, International Historical Statistics • Fuelwood consumption constructed from FAOSTAT and a few population data • Forest fire of GEIA data scaled by historical population numbers • Gridded into 0.5o x 0.5o by population

  2. Global & Annual Mean SAT ANTH Y2K-FIX CONT FULL NTRL

  3. Global & Annual Mean SAT

  4. Global & Annual Mean Precip. ANTH NTRL CONT FULL

  5. マル中 IPCC 対応実験計画 （案） 6月 7月 8月 5月 CTL 20C-01 20C-02 20C-03 Y2K N20C-01 N20C-02 N20C-03 A2-01 A2-02 A2-03 A20C-01 A20C-02 A20C-03 A1B-01 A1B-02 A1B-03 Y2100A1B B1-01 B1-02 B1-03 Y2100B1 CO2incr.-01 CO2incr.-03 CO2incr.-02 2xCO2 CTL+WFCO2 4xCO2 CO2+WFCTL Low-Sens. CTL High-Sens. 20C N20C CO2incr. A20C

  6. まとめ • マル中結合モデルによる本実験開始 • コントロールはほとんどドリフトしていない • わずかな昇温ドリフトは避けられない見通し • 結果は概ね良好 （低感度版） • CO2倍増時の地上気温上昇は 2.07K • 20世紀気候再現実験は観測と非常によく一致 • 基本的には ES L系2ノード6本の体制を継続 • IPCCには3メンバのアンサンブルを提出（一部を除く） • 科学的に興味深い実験をどんどん実行 • 出力データ転送（搬送）のインフラ整備が急務 • FTP には限界あり （最大で240GB/日） • MDPS がどの程度バッファとして使えるかがカギ

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