Ben Cashore Associate Professor, Environmental Governance and Sustainable Forest Policy &

1. Ben Cashore Associate Professor, Environmental Governance and Sustainable Forest Policy & Director, Program on Forest Policy and Governance School of Forestry and Environmental Studies Yale University Keynote Presentation to BC Forestry Professionals Conference and Annual General Meeting, Feb. 22, 2006, Victoria, BC (Slightly revised Feb. 26, 2006) The Shaping and Reshaping of British Columbia Forest Policy in the Global Era: A Review of Governmental and Non-governmental Strategic Initiatives

2. Overview • Outline my overall approach to policy analysis • Identify key challenges facing British Columbia forestry in the global context • Review analytical framework • Review research findings across six different policy arenas • Justify our argument that, in the global era, BC forestry professionals are in a unique positionto champion, and lead, proactive approaches to problem solving

3. Cashore Lens/approach • I am a political scientist • I describe and explain forest policy preferences among governments, firms, and environmental groups • I have compared (with colleagues) British Columbia’s and the United States’ forest policy development over time • And I compare Canada and the United States with Europe, Australia and developing countries • I do not take sides! • Everyone thinks I am taking the other group’s side • I do try to reflect on whether “win win” solutions might exist

4. Why would a political scientist be speaking to forestry professionals? • You know way more about how forest function • On the ground experience • Science of sustainable forestry • Importance of aboriginal knowledge • Political scientists try to predict behavior • Old saying, “where you stand depends upon where you sit” • We think we can predict your responses to outside pressures! • Structure versus agency

5. Let’s conduct an experiment • Imagine two groups: • Association of BC Forest Professionals • Greenpeace • Of these two groups, which organization best fits your own values? • How many say ABCFP? • How many Greenpeace? • Your response proves that political scientists Rock! We can predict what you said before you said it • Our argument: to address big complex challenges you need to become unpredictable!

6. Challenges Facing Professional Foresters in Global Era • You know challenges better than any group • Economic challenges extraordinary • Growth of China reshaping forest markets • Russia vast untapped resource • Tropics growing wood faster • Illegal logging • Consolidation of forest companies • Will firms flee to less regulated areas of the world? • Social aspects of forestry worrisome • Forest dependent communities? • Place-based knowledge and stewardship? • Will communities be shut down?

7. Challenges Facing Professional Foresters in Global Era • Environmental challenges extraordinary in breadth, depth, and complexity • Endangered species • Deforestation • Uncertainty -- We put a hole in the ozone layer without knowing it • What about current impacts we don’t know about? • Arguably biggest challenge is climate • Will be devastating • Extent is uncertain

8. Top Five Warmest Years World Wide Since 1890s • 2005 • 1998 • 2002 • 2003 • 2004 Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)

9. What this has meant: Glaciers are melting

10. What This Has Meant: Fungi and Frogs • Have learned that climate change, among other factors, is endangering frogs in many tropical countries • Why? • Fungal disease that has gained strength by climate • My colleague, David Skelly, studies frogs because they provide insights into complex systems • Canary in the coal mine

11. Leptopelis Susanae poison arrow frog Phyllobates vittatus Scaphiophryne gottlebei Endangered Frogs Around World

12. Acris Crepitans Blanchards Cricket Frog Ascaphus montanus – Tailed Frog Oregon spotted frog: British Columbia and US Pacific Northwest Endangered Frogs: British Columbia/Canada

13. Climate Change: We’ve Only seen the beginning • The intergovernmental panel on climate change warns of catastrophic events if we warm the planet more than 2 degrees Celsius • Implications are profound • Malte Meinshausen et al., "Multi-Gas Emission Pathways To Meet Climate Targets," Climatic Change (2005)."Achieving climate targets that account for… disintegrating ice  sheets or for large scale extinction risks almost certainly requires substantial and near term emission reductions”

14. How Do We Want to Respond to these Complex Economic, Social and Environmental Challenges? • Do we want to react as the story unfolds? • Do we want to focus on specific pieces of the puzzle • What factors do we want to take into account when thinking about policy choices? • Before answer this let’s review what we did

15. What did we do? • Brought together research team from • Yale Program on Forest Policy and Governance • Connie McDermott postdoctoral research associate • Kelly Levin, Doctoral student • With • Graeme Auld, Doctoral student • Deanna Newsom, forest policy and certification analyst • Developed framework with which to assess strategic behavior in complex environment • Analyzed existing data and conducted new research

16. Classification Framework for Responding to External Pressure 1) Internal Decision Making Processes Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through Short Term (Few Variables) Long Term (Many variables) 2) Response to Pressure Compromise (Half/half) Resist (Win/lose) Innovative (win/win) Acquiesce (Lose/Win)

17. Research Paper: Applied to Key Issues Areas Categories Issues

18. Research Paper: Analyzed • We looked at • Government • Industry • Environmental groups • Broad historical and comparative review • Over 100 single spaced pages • Positions future research to assess/test our argument/findings • General picture emerges

19. Results: Strategic Approach to Forest Policy Development • Industry emphasizes economic development, “business friendly” policy environment. • Government tries to balance these interests • Fluctuates depending on political party in power, relative strength of market campaigns • Forest professionals are caught in the middle • In general, groups predictable • Narrow short term interest • Environmental groups push for increased environmental protection • Used market campaigns

20. The BC Regulatory Environment in Comparison • What has been the result of this strategic activity for content of regulations? • Fluctuates • We can turn to our 2004 global report for a snapshot of BC in comparison • No time to review in detail – read the book! • Here are some examples of what we uncovered

21. Results: Forest Regulations in 20 countries Riparian buffer zone sizes: 30 metre wide streams

22. Results: Forest Regulations Riparian buffer zone: 1 meter wide streams, no fish

23. Results: Forest Clearcut Size Restrictions– Canada-US jurisdictions

24. Analytical Framework: Placing Domestic Forest Regulations Domestic forest regulations Strategic Long Term Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through Strategic Short Term

25. Results: Canada-US Softwood lumber trade dispute • Quarter century old dispute • Far to complex to discuss in one slide • Overall trends • Seat of pants to narrow strategic • Some well intentioned efforts but • Canada is not in drivers seat • Déjà vu all over again • US highly strategic • First criticized stumpage policy (1982, 86) • Then added raw log export restrictions (1991) • Then added “dumping” charges (2001) • Now launching constitutional challenge of NAFTA panels

26. Analytical Framework: Overall placement of Response to Softwood lumber Canada-US Softwood lumber dispute Strategic Long Term Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through Strategic Short Term

27. Results: Efforts to Develop International Code • Overall Canada has been championing and international code for almost 20 years • Strategic self interest? • Feel they are regulated more than competitors • International code could create “level playing field” • However, almost every other country was focused on their own self interest • Result is stalemate, fragmentation • Impact on the ground?

28. Analytical Framework: Global Forest Code Global Forest Code Strategic Long Term Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through Strategic Short Term

29. Results: Efforts to Combat Illegal Logging • Illegal logging widespread in tropics • Several interests coincide • Economic • Environmental • Government • Potential therefore for “win win” strategic efforts • There are four Regional Forest Law Enforcement and Governance (FLEG) processes established • Canada most active in Russia-focused FLEG • Canada has strategic self interest • Russia is competitor • Its logging poses environmental challenges • Question: • Could these processes help build multi-lateral forest code at regional scale? Could it uncover win win?

30. Analytical Framework: Illegal logging Efforts to curb Illegal logging Strategic Long Term Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through Strategic Short Term

31. Results: Climate change • Canada did ratify Kyoto protocol • Strong debate between what environmental groups asking and what industry is proposing. Governing caught in middle • Meantime Canada has increasedits emissions 24% since 1990 • Canada has Action Plan, but no stringent national policies • On other hand we see some strategic/proactive industry FPAC/efforts • Forest Products Association MOU with government established 15% industry reduction target • FPAC reports 44% reduction in emissions intensity • BC has progressive climate change action plan, however consists only of goals thathave yet to be codified into law • Individual firms have reduced emissions as consistent with cost savings • In sum, most efforts short term strategic. Fail to address gravity of problem • Forestry could play special role in future– since Pine Beetle shows it is heavily impacted by the problem.

32. Analytical Framework: Climate Climate Change Strategic Long Term Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through Strategic Short Term

33. Forest Certification • Also complex story • www.governingthroughmarkets.com • Overall: short term strategic hints of long term • In BC, industry showed some interest in Forest Stewardship Council • Might get market advantage for regulatory changes in 1990s • Environmental groups understandably focused on increasing standards • Most BC companies have not opted for FSC

34. Forest Certification • But Strong support for forest certification in general • Forest Products Association of Canada more proactive than US counterparts • Requires members undergo third party certification according to FSC, or CSA or SFI

35. Area certified: by Country Certification system

36. Area Certified: by Region and Certification system

37. Forest Certification • Strong divisions remain between FSC supporters on one hand, and CSA, SFI on the other • Biggest promise of certification – collaborative problem focused learning – has yet to be fully realized.

38. Analytical Framework: Forest Certification Forest Certification Strategic Long Term Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through Strategic Short Term

39. Analytical Framework: Decision Continuum according to Key Issue Areas Efforts to curb Illegal logging Domestic forest regulations Global Forest Code Canada-US Softwood lumber dispute Forest Certification Climate Change Strategic Long Term Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through Strategic Short Term

40. Analytical Framework: Where We Believe Decisions Ought to Be Located Efforts to curb Illegal logging Domestic forest regulations Global Forest Code Canada-US Softwood lumber dispute Forest Certification Climate Change Strategic Long Term Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through Strategic Short Term (California or Delaware effect)

41. Analysis: Racing to the Top or the Bottom? • How ought organizations act? • Can forces of globalization be harnessed to produce win win solutions? • How can we “ratchet up” problem solving efforts?

42. 1) Encourage the “California Effect” (Vogel) • Phenomenon where business in regulated markets see a self interest in having their competitors equally regulated. • Leads to upward global standard. • Prerequisite: active environmental and social NGOs • Spark initial regulations and then encourage them elsewhere • Under this analysis: conflict between NGOs and industry healthy • Interaction leads to win win • Huge potential in case of global forest code • Yet to be realized

43. 2) Discourage the “Delaware Effect” • Phenomenon when firms flee to less regulated regions of the world – lax standards, wages, and so on. • Companies fleeing to Indonesia or Malyasia or from US Pacific Northwest to US Southeast, example of this. • In these cases, economic globalization is bad for environment and social protections

44. 3) Think Long-Term Strategic • The accelerating pace of change means California effect, by itself, cannot possibly hope to deal with complex situations • Need multi-stakeholder collaborative learning linking proposed solutions to problems in positive feedback loops • Examples already exist • Right here!

45. Strategic Long Term – BC Examples Joint Science Collaborative processes Spirit Bear initiative Clayoquot Sound Processes “a new way of thinking about how you do forestry” “This collaboration is something we have to take into the future, and it is something the world can learn from." Premier Gordon Campbell Commission on Resources and the Environment Strategic Long Term Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through Strategic Short Term

46. How Can We Facilitate Long-Term Strategic Efforts? • We think the way out is development of brand new institutions – existing ones not doing the job. • Offer these as food for thought

47. Analysis: Create Forward Looking Institutions • BC center for strategic forest policy • non-partisan research and dissemination of BC’s forest policies • Encourage collaborative learning across stakeholders

48. Analysis: Create Forward Looking Institutions • Canada-US forestry Commission • Assess important questions surrounding softwood dispute. • Could remove fuel from softwood fire

49. Analysis: Create Forward Looking Institutions 3) World Forest Organization • A global forest organization focused on policy learning and environmental monitoring • Could shift global forestry efforts away from strategic short term calculations to long term learning about on-the-ground environmental performance.