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Modelling the conception to first birthday mortality curve

Workshop on Fetal and Infant Survival. Modelling the conception to first birthday mortality curve. Dr Paul Williamson & Prof. Bob Woods Department of Geography. 600. 600. 500. 575. 400. 550. 300. 525. Dying out of 1000 conceptions. Dying out of 1000 conceptions. 200. 500. 100. 475.

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Modelling the conception to first birthday mortality curve

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  1. Workshop on Fetal and Infant Survival Modelling the conception to first birthday mortality curve Dr Paul Williamson & Prof. Bob Woods Department of Geography

  2. 600 600 500 575 400 550 300 525 Dying out of 1000 conceptions Dying out of 1000 conceptions 200 500 100 475 0 450 0 200 400 600 Days after LMP

  3. Embryo: 14-41 days after LMP Early fetal: 42-195 days after LMP Late fetal (stillbirths): 196-279 days after LMP Early neonatal: 280-286 days after LMP Late neonatal: 287-307 days after LMP Post neonatal: 308-644 days after LMP

  4. Where y^ = predicted fetal-infant loss per 1000 conceptions x = days after LMP yo = 473.3523 xo = 280 A = -2549.0207 B = 0.1197 C = 28.9374 D = 6.8747 E = 1.1418 F = 84.4912 G = 154.719 H = 11.1787

  5. a) Component 1 embryonic and early fetal loss [14-196 days after LMP] [Exponential growth curve]

  6. b) Component 2 late fetal and neonatal [196-308 days after LMP] [Aysmmetrical sigmoidal (4 params.)]

  7. c) Component 3 post-neonatal [308-644 days after LMP] [Asymmetrical sigmoidal (3 params.)]

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