Workshop on Enhancing South West Asian Climate Change Monitoring and Indices 4-9 October, 2004

1. A Regional Approach to Climate Change Analysis Workshop on Enhancing South West Asian Climate Change Monitoring and Indices 4-9 October, 2004 R. Sagir - S. Sensoy TSMS, TURKEY

2. WEATHER, CLIMATE and CLIMATIC CHANGE Climatology is the science that seeks to describe and explain the nature of climate, why it differs from place to place, and how it is related to other elements of the natural environment and to human activities. Weather is the state of the atmosphere, over a brief period of time. For example, we speak of today's weather or the weather this week. Climate represents composite of day-to-day weather overa longer period of time. In other word, climate is the average stateof the atmosphere. Weather and climate transcend national boundaries, and accordingly; *National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), as well as daily national weather forecasts and warnings, cannot be achieved without regional and international data. * Consequently, observations throughout, and even beyond, a region are of considerable interest to individual countries within the region, as are products based on such observations. If we know the status of the climate today and the differences between this and the recent past, we can begin to plan for the future. (Obasi, 2001)

3. Why we think about globally? Basic question to be answered in physical climatology is: what causes the variations in heat exchange, moisture exchange from time to time and place to place or why do climates differ? First step in a scientific approach to the answer is observation. Observations of intensity and duration of solar radiation, temperature, humidity, evaporation, cloudiness and fog, precipitation, visibility, barometric pressure, and winds. Their occurrence in a particular combination results from transfers of energy and mass in the climate system. The transfer processes are in turn influenced by differences in latitude, altitude, land and water surfaces, mountain barriers, local topography, and such gross atmospheric features as prevailing winds, air masses, and pressure centers. Energy from the sun drives the earth’s weather and climate, and heats the earth’s surface; in turn, the earth radiates energy back into atmosphere.

4. Mechanism of Greenhouse Effect N2, O2 RADIATIVE FLUX BALANCE -18°C H2O, CO2, CH4, N20, CFC, O3 Without the greenhouse effect, temperatures on Earth would be –18°C The greenhouse effect is a naturaloccurrence that maintains Earth's average temperature at approximately +15°C +15°C

5. This picture is shows that there are the borders between the countries; But there is no border in the weather and climate.

6. AIR MASSES AFFECTING SW ASIA mP cP POLAR (Cold) It is originated from Russia and Siberian. It is cold and dry air masses and characterized by fog and dry cold at nights. When it passes over Black Sea, it gets moisture and can cause orographic rainfall in the Black Sea costal region. mP Its source is Atlantic Ocean and passes over Europe. It brings rainfall to the Black Sea Region and snow to inland regions. If it comes from over Mediterranean it became more effective. It is warm and humid. This air mass forms over Asor Islands. It brings a lot of precipitation especially to the western part of Turkey in the ssummer. mT T R O P İ K A L (Warm) It is hot and dry. It is originated from North African Desert. If it meets northern systems or gets sufficient moisture over Mediterranean, it can cause rainfall. cT

7. What is the significance of climate? • Climate variability has impacts on all countries and on all strata of socio-economic activity • So called climate ‘disasters’ usually take prime position in the headlines but normal inter-annual climate variability continually affects agricultural production, water resources, energy and many other sectors. • Climate monitoring, prediction and early warning upon which appropriate actions are taken will undoubtedly assist in mitigating some of the negative impacts of climate variability while taking advantage of the positive impacts

8. Data requirements Weather and climate data are required in order to understand, monitor and predict climate phenomena. * Initialization of models * Validation of models * Verification of forecasts * Construction of time series for trend and climate change detection (long-term datasets) * Climate database is used to provide basic and tailored climate information in form of atlases including means, variability and return periods,daily rainfall frequencies,etc. *The database also forms a documentation of past climate events for inter-disciplinary impact studies

9. Temperate and wet all the year round Temperate and wet all the year round Hot and dry summers, cold and harsh winters Hot and dry summer, cold and harsh winter In IPCC 3 rd assessment, it was clear that nearly half of the global land Surface was not going to be represented in the Climate Research article. SW Asia is one of them. This workshop is intended to fill this lack of information.

10. output input Prec Tmax Tmin Why we study with daily data? Because the monthly means filter out important information. Long term daily data allows for analyses of wide variety of extreme events. 27-

11. CONCLUSION • Climate extremes often have the most impact on society. • ETCCDMI constituted climate indices derived from daily data for the analysis of extremes. • IPCC 3rd assessment report didn’t represent half of the global land surface. Locations not analyzed include SW Asia. • The weather and climate and climate change are the global issues. Regional approach is needed. • Homogeneity adjustments of daily data are so potentially difficult only a few countries adjust their daily data

12. Extreme weather events occurred in Turkey

13. Thanks for your attention R.Sagir - S.Sensoy Tel :+90(312) 302 24 57 Fax :+90(312) 361 23 71