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Implications of Climate Change in the South West

Implications of Climate Change in the South West. Presentation Outline. The Science of Climate Change: a brief overview Future climate change: what can the South West expect? Impacts of climate change: how are key sectors affected? Drivers for adaptation: why preparing for change is essential

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Implications of Climate Change in the South West

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  1. Implications of Climate Change in the South West

  2. Presentation Outline • The Science of Climate Change:a brief overview • Future climate change:what can the South Westexpect? • Impacts of climate change:how are key sectors affected? • Drivers for adaptation:why preparing for change is essential • Taking action:adaptation case studies and tools

  3. The Science of Climate Change: a brief overview

  4. Climate = the average weather in a locality over a 30 year period Weather = what it is doing outside right now Weather vs. Climate

  5. The greenhouse effect

  6. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Temperature change ºC 1850 1900 1950 2000 Natural factors cannot explain recent warming Observed Model simulation Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research

  7. Temperature change ºC 1850 1900 1950 2000 Recent warming can be simulated when manmade factors are included: 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Observed Model simulation Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research

  8. 2003 summer temperatures could become regular by the 2040s Observed temperatures Simulated temperatures 2040s We are already committed to this from past emissions alone 2003 2003 temperatures normal by 2040s Source Met Office Hadley Centre 35,000 people died across Northern Europe as a result of the 2003 August heatwave – effective planning is essential

  9. Some change is inevitable IPCC Emission Scenarios High Medium Low World Stabilisation Scenario Peak in emissions at 2016 followed by an annual decrease of 4% We are locked into some change because of past emissions Start to diverge from 2030-40 Year Temp rise is difference from 1750

  10. Observed changes in the South West • Between 1961 and 2006… • Ave. summer temp. increased by1.41 °C • Summer precipitation decreased by8.8% • Winter precipitation increased by15.9% • Sea Level in Newlyn has risen 20 cm since 1920 • 9 out of the past 10 years have now brought serious flooding to the UK • Globally, the 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1997

  11. Mitigation reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) Adaptation preparing for the unavoidable impacts of climate change

  12. Regional Adaptation Response • Climate SouthWest focuses on climate change impacts and adaptation. Its mission is: • To help the South West Region of England to adapt sustainably to the impacts of climate change • Regional partnership funded by a range of public and private organisations

  13. Climate SouthWest Funders

  14. “Warming to the Idea” Climate SouthWest scoping study. Updated 2010 • Describes climate change scenarios for the South West • Identifies likely impacts • Suggests actions needed to respond www.oursouthwest.com/climate

  15. Future Climate Change: What can the South West expect?

  16. Increased summer temperatures Increased Tourism Increased Heat stress Infrastructure risks Risks to biodiversity Heat related deaths Risk to Food Security 2020s 2080s 2050s + 1.6C + 3.9C + 2.7C Map showing average summer temperature change, medium emissions scenario, 2080s But the temperature on the hottest day of the year could increase by up to 10ºC South-West England central estimate Medium emissions The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2.1ºC or more than 6.4ºC 17

  17. Decreased summer precipitation Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased drought Potential benefits for tourism Subsidence Serious water stress Decreased crop yields 2020s 2080s 2050s - 8% - 24% - 20% South West England central estimate Medium emissions Map showing average summer precipitation change, medium emissions scenario, 2080s For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -49% or higher than +6% 18

  18. Increased winter precipitation Increased winter flooding Increased subsidence Risks to urban drainage Severe Transport disruption Risks of national Infrastructure 2020s 2080s 2050s + 7% +23% + 17% Map showing average winter precipitation change, medium emissions scenario, 2080s South West central estimate Medium Emissions For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +6% or higher than +54% 19

  19. Relative sea level rise Weston-super-Mare: 12 cm Newlyn: 13 cm Poole: 12 cm 2020 2050 Weston-super-Mare: 26 cm Newlyn: 29 cm Poole: 26 cm central estimate Medium emissions The H++ scenario for mean sea-level rise around the UK is 93 cm - 190 cm approx by 2100  Note. Global average sea level rise: 1961-2003 = 1.8mm/year; 1993-2003 = 3.1mm/year (IPCC, 2007) 20

  20. More frequent and intense severe weather events Contribution to England & Wales winter precipitation from extreme 3-day events Met Office Hadley Centre

  21. © Bournemouth Tourism 2003 Heatwave led to 2000 deaths 2007 summer floods cost + £3 billion “Parched April leads to alerts over silage and grain sales” Western Morning News, 4th May 2011 Insured losses from weather-related events cost £1.5bn / yr “RESORTS PACKED AS RECORDS TUMBLE” Dorset Echo, 11th August 2003 ‘Disappointed Ducks’

  22. Impacts of climate change: How are key sectors affected?

  23. Climate SouthWest Key Sectors Business & Utilities Agriculture & Forestry Housing & Construction Biodiversity Transport Local Government Health Tourism

  24. Challenges Increased risk of disease Heat stress to poultry and livestock Increased risk of drought Loss of productive land due to sea level rise Increased soil erosion and run-off Opportunities New crop varieties Reduced frost damage Longer growing seasons Improved land management and woodland creation Impacts for Agriculture and Forestry

  25. Challenges Risk to drought vulnerable species Increased visitor pressure on natural environment Invasive non-native flora and fauna Change in SW natural environment Opportunities Flora and fauna move to northern distributions Integrated land management and habitat creation Impacts for Biodiversity © RSPB

  26. Challenges Business continuity Recovery costs from events Increased insurance costs Health and safety risks Disruption to supply chain / movement of goods and services Opportunities New market opportunities – goods and services Recreational and leisure opportunities Opportunities to enhance reputation Reduced energy demand in winter Impacts for Business & Utilities Slad Road, Stroud (Bernard Wakefield-Heath) http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire

  27. Challenges Development in floodplains More need for summer cooling Increased rain penetration Subsidence/landslips Rising demand for water but decreased supply Opportunities Less demand for winter heating More potential for solar energy Increased amount of trees Improved drainage infrastructure Changing design standards Impacts for Housing and Construction © White Design

  28. Challenges Protecting residents and business in flood risk areas Impacts on natural environment Impacts & pressures on infrastructure Service delivery continuity Opportunities Leadership by example Partnership working Improved health – outdoor lifestyles Business opportunities - tourism Impacts for local authorities and Local Strategic Partnerships

  29. Challenges Visitor destinations at capacity Increased insurance costs Damage to buildings Staff and visitor health and safety Coastal locations threatened by sea level rise and increased erosion Opportunities Potentially longer season Job creation Diversification Tourism in ‘off peak’ periods New market opportunities Impacts for Tourism © Bournemouth Tourism

  30. Challenges Increased pressure on transport system from increased visitors Increased disruption Increased damage to infrastructure Opportunities Increased scope for walking and cycling Less frost damage to infrastructure and less need for gritting Fewer ice/snow related accidents and infrastructure damage Impacts for Transport

  31. Challenges Over exposure to UV – cataracts & skin cancer Increased heat related deaths Impacts of air pollution Food poisoning Infectious / tropical diseases Opportunities Increased physical recreation – reduction in obesity Milder winters – reduction in excess winter deaths Fewer cold related admissions Impacts for Health

  32. Drivers for adaptation Why preparing for change is essential

  33. http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire http://news.bbc.co.uk 23.7.07 Gloucestershire floods 2007 The South West is vulnerable to the existing climate • 573 business properties directly affected (est. only 80% insured) • 350 000 without water for up to 17 days • 42 000 without power for 42 hours • 10 000 people trapped on M5 & railways • £14.3M - emergency repair & response costs for Gloucestershire businesses • Businesses out of action for months! • (Pitt Review, 2008)

  34. 2003 Heatwave – Bournemouth & Poole • 12th August 2003, Bournemouth & Poole • High temperatures (31+°C) attract record numbers of visitors • Accommodation full • 20% more traffic than usual • Pollution more than double Gov. Health Limit • 700 parking tickets issued over weekend • Emergency vehicles access blocked © Bournemouth Tourism The temperatures during the 2003 heatwave are likely to become normal in summer by the 2040s

  35. Climate Change Act 2008 • UK Climate Change Risk Assessment every five years • National adaptation programme must be put in place and reviewed every five years • Adaptation Reporting Power • Adaptation Sub-Committee

  36. Business drivers: Insurance In the SW, a 2°C rise could increase annual insured flood losses by 19% - leading to a potential pricing increase of up to 16%. A 4°C rise could increase losses by 29% - leading to a potential pricing increase of up to 27%. ‘The Financial Risks of Climate Change’ (ABI, 2009) Key messages for businesses: • Climate adaptation is likely to become part of insurance criteria • Well prepared businesses could save money on premiums • Unprepared businesses may not secure insurance cover

  37. Business drivers: Reputation • Growing awareness • 69% cite flooding as one of the most common effects of climate change • Businesses need to show they care and are ahead of the game • Responsible business • - Reputation as employer • Reputation to customers • People care

  38. Taking action: Adaptation case studies and tools

  39. Adaptation = Risk management © Environment Agency

  40. Flood case study: Old Mill Hotel, Bath • Temporary flood boards • ‘Tanked’ the underneath of the restaurant – i.e. sealed it • Management training • The laundry store was moved from the basement • Close contact is kept with the Environment Agency to monitor the risk • Catering facilities and staff are prepared - able to move a second kitchen and function room upstairs

  41. Drought case study: High Post Golf Club “Plan for future climate change and don’t be frightened to bang the drum and get some publicity for being pro-active – it’s usually free marketing!” Peter Hickling, High Post manager • Drought-resistant grasses • Water allocation process uses less water • Likelihood of disease reduced – less fungicide needed • Increased reputation – recognised as ‘on course for sustainability’ • Member support gained through open forum

  42. Construction case study: The Scarlet Hotel, Mawgan Porth Natural swimming pool – uses rainwater and no chlorination Natural ventilation (7%) and heat recovery ventilation (85%) Grey and rainwater harvesting systems Green roofs and landscaping with a soakaway

  43. Community case study: Slapton Line Partnership • Coastal erosion • Road can only be maintained for max 30 -50 years • Signagefor alternative routes • Contingency plan for road closures • Business Forum to discuss challenges and opportunities • Emphasising attraction of nature reserve

  44. Caravan and campsite flood risk management pack Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool ‘Changing Climate Changing Business’ DVD Online toolkit for tourism businesses www.climateprepared.com Case Studies www.oursouthwest.com/climate/casestudies Tools to support adaptation

  45. Preparing for flooding www.environment-agency.gov.uk

  46. Conclusions • Climate change is a “now” issue • We need to plan for current and future vulnerability • Planning proactively will be more cost effective than reacting • Opportunities for those who are resilient and able to adapt • Climate change impacts should be integrated into planning, policy • and decision-making

  47. The Costs of (In) Action: “Adaptation actions should be integrated into development policy and planning at every level. … ignoring climate change is not a viable option – inaction will be far more costly than adaptation” Stern Review, 2006

  48. Find out more and subscribe to the Climate SouthWest newsletter www.oursouthwest.com/climate

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