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Tracking HIV Trends in a Low Prevalence Country Signals Change in the Epidemic. Genesis May J. Samonte , MD HIV Surveillance and Strategic Information Unit National Epidemiology Center. HIV in the Philippines. Country Population: 90 million First HIV case reported in 1984:
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Tracking HIV Trends in a Low Prevalence Country Signals Change in the Epidemic Genesis May J. Samonte, MD HIV Surveillance and Strategic Information Unit National Epidemiology Center
HIV in the Philippines • Country Population: 90 million • First HIV case reported in 1984: • Filipino heterosexual male migrant worker • 5,000 HIV cases from 1984-2010 • Major HIV Data Sources: Philippine HIV & AIDS Registry National Behavioral and Serologic Surveillance
Modes of Transmission of Reported HIV Cases (1984 - 2005) Source: Philippine HIV & AIDS Registry
Average Number of New HIV Cases Reported per Month Source: Philippine HIV & AIDS Registry Was this due to better reporting? Or an increase in HIV testing? Was it because of effective advocacy? Or ARV availability? Was the increase in HIV cases real?
Modes of Transmission of Reported HIV Cases (2005 - 2008) Source: Philippine HIV & AIDS Registry
Shift from Heterosexual Transmission to MSM • Median age was becoming younger • Most of the cases from 19 – 29 age group • Cases were from the highly urban areas • Not migrant workers • Not sex workers Source: Philippine HIV & AIDS Registry
Philippine Integrated HIV Behavioral & Serologic Surveillance (IHBSS) • Conducted every 2 years since 2005 by the Dept of Health • Behavioral and serologic surveillance of FSW, MSM, and IDU • Sites • 10 Sentinel Sites nationwide • Added 4 sites in 2007, 9 sites in 2009 • Sampling Method • Registered Establishment Based FSW: Simple Random Sampling • Freelance FSW & MSM: Time Location Sampling • IDU: Respondent Driven Sampling
Female Sex Workers • Feel at-risk for HIV: • 62% RFSW • 62% FFSW • Correct knowledge: • 80-90% RFSW • 70-80% FFSW • Tested and know results: • 27% RFSW • 8% FFSW Condom use during sex with last client Source: 2005 to 2009 Philippine IHBSS
People Who Inject Drugs / IDU Shared needles during last injection • 68% feel at-risk for HIV: • 80% have correct knowledge about HIV • 1.5% have been tested for HIV and know their results Source: 2005 to 2009 Philippine IHBSS
Males who have Sex with Males MSM who Practiced Anal Sex and Condom Use with Last Partner • 60% feel at-risk for HIV: • 80-90% have correct knowledge about HIV • 7% have been tested for HIV and know their results Source: 2005 to 2009 Philippine IHBSS
HIV Prevalence Trends in 10 Sentinel Sites Source: 2005 to 2009 Philippine IHBSS
2009 IHBSS Prevalence Rates Source: 2009 Philippine IHBSS
Modes of Transmission of Reported HIV Cases (2005 - 2010) Source: Philippine HIV & AIDS Registry
Conclusion • In a low prevalence setting, tracking HIV trends was beneficial to signal changes in the epidemic • Significant increase in the number of new cases • Shift from heterosexual transmission to MSM and IDU • The interplay of risk factors: IDU-FSW, IDU-MSM • Timely strategic information is critical for evidence-based decision making • Program expansion: Registered FSW have the lowest HIV and syphilis prevalence rates. Need to scale up coverage of Freelance FSW. • Re-focus strategies: Immediate innovative programs for MSM. • Policy change: Harm reduction program for IDU.