Assessing the vulnerability of Hawaiian native plants and forest birds to climate change

1. Assessing the vulnerability of Hawaiian native plants and forest birds to climate change Overview and preliminary reflections

2. CC vulnerability assessment Science magazine 12/2011 Prioritized species lists based on climate change threats Prioritized climate impacts research Prioritized species lists based on non-climatic threats, bio-cultural values Assessment of management capacity and options Climate Change adaptation planning

3. Challenges to project ecological impacts of climate change in Pacific Islands Be robust to fragmented data/ information Must consider current threats Large number of target species

4. Existing tools: Spreadsheet models Nature serve tool Rely heavily on expert synthesis Not coupled with quantitative research and model-derived information Little consideration of other threats

5. Bayesian network model approach • Increasingly used in ecology/ conservation biology • Very intuitive way to define knowledge about particular issue/topic • Especially in fields fraught with uncertainty • Two underlying aspects: • Graphical representation of causal links among factors • Underlying probability-based model reflecting ‘strength of influence’ among factors

6. Example of BN model • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office? • What are the relevant factors?

7. Example of BN model • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office? • What are their ‘typical’ conditions? (i.e., Bayesian priors)

8. Example of BN model • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office? • How does the likelihood of having a good coffee cup change with increasing information?

9. Example of BN model • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office? • How does the likelihood of having a good coffee cup change with increasing information?

10. Example of BN model • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office? • Issue is not as simple!

11. Example of BN model • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office? • Issue is not as simple!

15. Benefits and expected outcomes • Intuitive holistic representation of complex response to CC • Including non-climatic threats • Better integrates knowledge from other relevant efforts (primary research, modeling efforts, expert knowledge, etc.) • Can be easily applied to multiple species with diverse sets of information • More amenable to data gaps • Helps define/ prioritize research gaps • Model structure allows for learning with growing CC knowledge

16. LESSONS LEARNED

17. VAs must address multiple expectations (better, faster, cheaper!) • End-users (need relevance/applicability) • Not enough to consider general needs and interests • If possible, consider how/where/when information taken by end-users • Researchers need to be interested (novelty, science merit)

18. Dealing with uncertainty • Address it head on • Pre-assessment discussion with end-users • During analysis • Interpretation and dissemination • Make effort a dynamic process: • VA should create a foundation to build on

19. VA is not the endpoint! • Pathway from VA to climate change adaptation is not straight forward • Survey of past vulnerability assessment uses: • Follow-through action is essential to utility! CC Vulnerability assessment Prioritized species lists based on climate change threats Prioritized climate impacts research Prioritized species lists based on non-climatic threats, bio-cultural values Assessment of management capacity and options Climate Change adaptation planning

20. VA is not the only possible first step in CC adaptation planning • When should we consider other options? • VA primary value as a group learning/ discussion instrument • Scenario planning and other adaptation strategy evaluations may be better

21. VA is not the only possible first step in CC adaptation planning BUT, what is not a valid reason for not doing a VA: • “We have a full plate already! We have too many other things to consider!” • Win the battle, lose the war • No regrets options • Likely can’t do it all- prioritization is always critical

22. Questions? For more information on the PICCC: http://www.doi.gov/lcc/index.cfm Or contact me directly: Lucas Fortini Lucas.fortini@piccc.net