Population Modelling in the London Thames Gateway - a new approach for small area geographies

1. Population Modellingin the London Thames Gateway- a new approach for small area geographies Professor Allan J. Brimicombe BA(Hons) M.Phil. Ph.D. C.Geog. FRGS FGS Centre for Geo-Information Studies University of East London, UK a.j.brimicombe@uel.ac.uk http://www.uel.ac.uk/geo-information

2. Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA) Project EASY The study area London Thames Gateway

3. Project EASY ONS small area population estimates • Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and LSOA • For LSOA estimates, data sets used are: • NHS patient register • Child benefit • Older persons dataset • Special populations: • Prisoners • UK armed forces • Foreign armed forces and dependents • Constrained to Local Authority MYE • The first three data sets are used to calculate • change ratios for quinary are groups and gender • which are then applied to the previous year’s • estimate. • Key assumption is that the relationship between • these data sets and the true population remains • the same for all years at small area geographies.

4. Project EASY GLA 2007 round demographic projections • Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and Ward • Change analysis 2001-2006 based on ONS MYE • Future fertility rates and gender/age-specific survival rates based on ONS 2006 MYE • Main determinant of population distribution is the 2004 London Housing Capacity Study and DCLG 2004-based household projections • Inputs are: • Base population • Fertility • Mortality/survival • 2001-02 migration matrix • 2001 migration flow age structures • 2002-03, 2005-06, 2006-07 gross inflows and net flows • Development data • 2004 household representative rates

5. 2001 Census -3 -2 -1 now future ONS Borough ONS GLA GLA Ward ONS UEL models UEL models LSOA Project EASY Population estimates and projections • Locally accessible data sets • Up-to-the-moment estimates • Small geographical areas (LSOA) • Can be carried out locally by analysts • Good quality data Social Infrastructure Planning Local Authorities & PCTs Community Infrastructure Levy £

6. Project EASY Modelling total Council Tax properties (2001 census)

7. Project EASY Key variables Count of properties by Council Tax bands Multiple Home Occupancy Child Benefit Schools Census (PLASC)

8. Project EASY Structure of the models Total Estimated Population Population in Households without Dependent Children Population in Families with Dependent Children Households without Dependent Children Families with Dependent Children School Census Separate model for each Borough Occupied Households Child Benefit Records Dwelling Counts by Council Tax Band Houses with Multiple Occupancy

9. Project EASY Variables by Borough Once built, the relationships are assumed to broadly remain between censuses and by plugging in the variables for each subsequent year, the population can be estimated at LSOA....even up-to-the-moment. So, what are the results.......

10. Project EASY Comparing at 2001

11. Project EASY Comparing at 2005

12. Project EASY Waltham Forest

13. Project EASY Havering

14. Project EASY Redbridge

15. Project EASY Greenwich

16. Project EASY Hackney

17. Project EASY Change 2001-2006

18. -3 -2 -1 now future Social Infrastructure Planning Local Authorities & PCTs Community Infrastructure Levy £ Project EASY Next steps 2001 Census EASY EASY LSOA (age structure) Tools