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Modelling for London 2012 Olympics

Modelling for London 2012 Olympics. Steve Miller Transport for London. Introduction. Transport for London The Railplan Model Olympics Demand Stratford International Station. Transport for London.

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Modelling for London 2012 Olympics

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  1. Modelling for London 2012 Olympics Steve Miller Transport for London

  2. Introduction • Transport for London • The Railplan Model • Olympics Demand • Stratford International Station

  3. Transport for London • Transport for London (TfL) is the integrated body responsible for London's transport system. • Its role is: • to implement the Mayor's Transport Strategy for London • manage the transport services across the capital for which the Mayor has responsibility. • TfL manages: • London's Strategic Road Network • London’s buses, • The Underground (LUL), • Docklands Light Railway (DLR) • London Trams (Croydon Tramlink). • London Riverboat Services

  4. Public Transport Issues for London Limited investment in new rail infrastructure Limited potential to increase rail capacity “Sweat the Assets”; i.e.: • Spread the Peak (demand and supply) • Increased crowding

  5. The Railplan Model • Runs on EMME/2 usually under UNIX • AM Peak Crowded Transit Assignment model of London (Based on Congtras.mac) • Underground • Rail • Tram • Bus • Docklands Light Rail (DLR)

  6. The Railplan Model • Uses Size 16 licence • 1,500-3,000+ Zones • 50,000+ Links • Distribution-Mode Split model outside Railplan

  7. Railplan Features Developed since 1988 (Rel 3!) Congestion on Route Choice Quantify social benefit of reduced crowding Forecast station flow patterns to aid station planning

  8. The Railplan Model Dimensions Demand Year Trips (3 Hrs) 2001 1,836,318 2011 2,195,962 Growth 2% p.a.

  9. The Railplan Model Dimensions Network (2001 Base) No. Zones 1,571 No. Nodes 14,648 No. Links 49,596 No. Lines 1,836 No. Segments 84,225

  10. Network Usage (2001 Base) Mode Lines Serv. Kms Pass. Kms N Rail 949 41,470 9,195,488 Underground 125 13,778 2,826,332 Light Rail 6 615 67,120 Tram 4 471 24,575 Bus 752 77,433 998,301

  11. Olympics Demand Could the system cope?

  12. Olympics Demand What about the P.M. Peak?

  13. Creation of PM Model Network • “Flip” the A.M. lines in Excel Demand • Transpose the A.M. Demand; then • Adjust to available count data • Add Olympics Demand

  14. PM Peak: Conclusions • Total LUL trips in the PM peak is higher than the AM peak • LUL trips in the peak direction in the PM is lower than the AM • National Rail boardings in the PM peak are generally lower than the AM peak by almost 20% • Olympics demand could be managed easier than AM

  15. Stratford Regional Station

  16. Complexities Serves: • LUL Central Line • LUL Jubilee Line (terminating) • Docklands Light Railway (terminating and through) • National Rail radial services (local and express) • National Rail orbital services • International Station connection • Very major adjacent redevelopment

  17. Station Layout

  18. Demand matrix 2016 PM peak

  19. Central line westbound - dispersal illustration B

  20. Scheme Summary

  21. Conclusions • Olympics demand could be managed, assuming infrastructure required for “legacy” purposes was in place • However, visitor management would be critical • Railplan assisted in confirming strategy, and providing data for station modelling.

  22. www.tfl.gov.uk

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