Estimation of the value of unquoted shares of enterprises in the public sector

1. Estimation of the value of unquoted shares of enterprises in the public sector Central Bureau of Statistics Israel

2. Introduction • Balance sheets for Israel have been prepared for 1995, and annually from 2001. • In the first versions the market value of unquoted shares was estimated using simple comparisons with traded shares. • The methods were improved for public sector enterprises in 2005 as presented in this paper, using accepted approaches for evaluation of shares in financial theory.

3. Problems with methods used previously • Comparisons with data for traded enterprises were made at an aggregate level. • Main deficiency: estimation not linked to the profitability of the enterprises or their lack of liquidity. • Also difficult to match kinds of activity of public sector enterprises with the industries of enterprises traded on the stock exchange.

4. International Recommendations • SNA 1993 13.73: “The value of shares in corporations that are not quoted on stock exchanges or otherwise traded regularly should be estimated using the prices of quoted shares that are comparable in earnings and dividend history and prospects, adjusting downward, if necessary, to allow for the inferior marketability or liquidity of unquoted shares. “ • ESA 1995 gives similar, but more detailed recommendations.

5. International task forces on unquoted shares • Eurostat and OECD task forces 2003 and 2004 recommendations: • In principle one may arrive at a market value for all unquoted shares using the multiplier: a weighted average of the ratio between the market price of the shares and the equity in enterprises with traded shares.

6. International task forces on unquoted shares (cont’d) • Establishment of a suitable data base with following characteristics: • Small enterprises and enterprises with a very large multiplier should be excluded. • Very large enterprises (Stoxx600 in Europe) should be excluded. • List of shares on stock exchange should be divided into 10 NACE industries. • Use data from domestic market or an international data bank (such as the Pan European).

7. Common methods of estimating the value of enterprises • There are a number of common methods of estimating the value of enterprises derived from existing theory on financial markets. • Such methods are for example used when determining the price of a share, when an enterprise is launched on the stock exchange. • The choice of methods of evaluation of the value of an enterprise is dependent upon the purpose of the evaluation, the available data, resources, and time.

8. 1. Asset value method • Cost of the assets after deducting liabilities either at net sales value or at the value of use (or re-exchange value). • Does not take into account intangible assets such as goodwill, accumulated knowledge, management abilities, patents, etc.

9. 1. Asset value method (cont’d) • A certain advantage for evaluating real estate enterprises and similar enterprises, where the market value of the assets themselves is the major part of the value of the enterprise. • Disadvantage: ignores potential for future profits, except the assets recorded in the balance sheets of the enterprise.

10. 2. Comparison of similar transactions • Uses the actual price of transactions made by similar enterprises with respect to activity, operational characteristics, tradability and financial data, and made within a reasonable period before the time of the evaluation.

11. 2. Comparison of similar transactions (cont’d) • Advantages: reflects all parameters that affect the prices of willing buyers and willing sellers, and no need for debatable forecasts. • Disadvantage: difficulty of finding similar enterprises.

12. 3. The multiplier method • The multiplier method is similar to the method of comparison of similar transactions, but it is based on prices of traded shares of enterprises in the relevant industry. • Using the average ratio between the market value of shares and a chosen accounting parameter in the industry, where the enterprise is active.

13. 3. The multiplier method (cont’d) • Advantage: simplicity. • Disadvantage: does not take into account a number of factors affecting the specific value of the enterprise, and making it different from other enterprises in the same area, such as: rate of growth, structure of capital, political events.

14. 4. The discounted cash flow method • Future cash flows are discounted using the price of capital reflecting the risk of the enterprise's activity, expressing the revenue that an investor would expect to receive from an enterprise with a similar risk. • Forecasts of sales, cost of sales, overhead, taxes and capital formation in order to derive the expected cash flow.

15. 4. The discounted cash flow method (cont’d) • Advantage: matched to the specific enterprise and relating to unique factors affecting the enterprise. • Disadvantage: difficulty of forecasting the relevant future income, expenditure and investments, and determining the appropriate price of capital.

16. Public sector enterprises in Israel

17. Proposed method • The proposed method is a combination of the above-mentioned methods and it includes: • Adjustment of equity of the enterprise with unquoted shares using the multiplier: market value/own funds at book value of a "similar enterprise" traded on TA stock exchange. • Comparing the multiplier own funds at book value/annual net profit. • Estimation of differences in liquidity of traded share and non-traded share for public sector companies.

18. Proposed formula • P = R * K * E * N where: P – market value of unquoted shares R – own funds at book value of the non-traded public sector market enterprise (the part that is held by government); K – multiplier market value/own funds at book value of a similar enterprise on TA stock exchange; E – proportion between multipliers own funds at book value/annual net profit in enterprises compared; N – multiplier representing liquidity differences;

19. Proposed treatment • Handle each public sector market enterprise separately. • Treat enterprises with profits, loss and mixed results as 3 different groups • For the computation of a weighted average multiplier, the data are chosen by industry (areas of activity) within the group "Tel Aviv 100", relevant for the area of activity of the unquoted public sector market enterprises. • When the own funds at book value of a "government enterprise" is less than zero (for example bankrupt enterprises with government guarantees to pay their debts) the market value is zero.

20. Special cases • For enterprises, which according to the government decision mainly act as providers of goods and services not for profit, but where the activity is market production – one should use the multiplier method as done for other market producers - except the comparison of profitability between enterprises. • For enterprises where the character of their activity is similar to quasi-corporations - the book value of own funds multiplied only by the relevant liquidity multiplier has been used.

21. Results

22. Conclusion • Estimates of market value of unquoted shares may be refined, using a combination of accepted methods for evaluation used in financial management, and comparing with similar enterprises (as to activity, size, profitability) traded on the stock exchange. • A data base with stock exchange information, and special multipliers for different groups (by level of profitability) is important. • It seems possible to implement similar methods for other sectors as well.