A Retrospective of 20 Years of ISMOR JD Smith & MR Bathe, Cranfield University

1. A Retrospective of 20 Years of ISMOR JD Smith & MR Bathe, Cranfield University

2. ISMOR Retrospective • Outline/Sources • Themes • Attendees • Papers • Paper Categories • Observations/Comments • Repository

3. ISMOR Retrospective • Review of ISMOR 1 to 19 • Themes • Papers • Attendees • 2 levels of Review • ‘Stats & Facts’ • Impressions/Ideas

4. ISMOR Retrospective • Sources • Papers available from David Faddy , HVR Library • Bound volumes of papers (ISMOR 1-10) held in Cranfield University Library at RMCS • Personal copies of papers • ISMOR delegate lists • ISMOR programmes • NONE is perfect

5. ISMOR Themes

6. ISMOR Themes/World Events 1

7. ISMOR Themes/World Events 2

8. ISMOR Retrospective • Total Papers • 600 • Total Attendees • 1830 • Nations represented • 20 (rounded for papers/attendees)

9. ISMOR Retrospective • ISMOR Attendees/Paper Numbers Plenary Sessions introduced

10. ISMOR Retrospective Switzerland Turkey Israel Singapore Sweden Australia Spain Korea Croatia Czech Republic Nationality of attendees: UK US Canada Denmark Germany France Italy Netherlands Norway Belgium

11. ISMOR Attendees

12. ISMOR Attendees

13. ISMOR Attendees

14. Review of ISMOR PapersAnalysis by Nationality of Papers

15. Review of ISMOR Papers Analysis by Nationality

16. Review of ISMOR Papers • ISMOR Paper Categories • Model Design • Hard OA • Soft OA • Study Descriptions • V&V • Human Factors • Mathematical Approaches • C2

17. Review of ISMOR Papers • ISMOR Paper Categories • General categorization • Limitations • Interpretation • Trends rather than absolutes • Possibly papers in more than one category • No ‘others’ category

18. Review of ISMOR Papers • Subject by year (graph)

19. Review of ISMOR Papers • Subject by year (graph)

20. Review of ISMOR Papers • Subject by year (graph)

21. Review of ISMOR Papers • Subject by year (graph)

22. Review of ISMOR Papers • Observations • Study descriptions/reports in the majority • Includes activity descriptions • Hard OA/Soft OA balance • Hard OA predominates but soft usually included • Human Factors • Consistent inclusion • Mathematical Methods • Appeared in early years (low level) • Reappeared recently

23. Review of ISMOR Papers • Observations • V&V rare • C2 continuing strand • Some papers dated/contextual • Eg • 2 ISMOR • Value of Tactical Nuclear Weapons • Gulf War 1

24. ISMOR Year? • An approach to modelling obstruction effects. • Human factors in operational testing. • Multivariable control theory for Lanchester type models. • The importance of considering information errors in combat modelling. • Modelling subjective decision-making. • Experiments with the battlefield engagement simulator and trainer. • An analysis of tank attributes.. • Simulating the command,control and subordinate systems. • The air threat to anti-tank helicopters. • On model assumptions and inputs for the analysis of reactive defense options. • Concepts for a tactical fire control decision aid. • Psycho1ogical stress and performance Component parts,processes,principles and structures of an anatomy of military combat • Mathematical modelling of the tank gunners target tracking ability and it's contribution to the effectiveness of the fire.

25. ISMOR Year? • An approach to modelling obstruction effects. • Human factors in operational testing. • Multivariable control theory for Lanchester type models. • The importance of considering information errors in combat modelling. • Modelling subjective decision-making. • Experiments with the battlefield engagement simulator and trainer. • An analysis of tank attributes.. • Simulating the command,control and subordinate systems. • The air threat to anti-tank helicopters. • On model assumptions and inputs for the analysis of reactive defense options. • Concepts for a tactical fire control decision aid. • Psycho1ogical stress and performance Component parts,processes,principles and structures of an anatomy of military combat • Mathematical modelling of the tank gunners target tracking ability and it's contribution to the effectiveness of the fire. 1985

26. ISMOR Year (2) • The relationship between battle intensity and disease rates among the marine corps combat and support units. • Automated movement planning. • Operational research in the field. • A geopolitical database for policy planning and operations in a new world order. • Identifying wartime manpower requirements through the use of computer simulation. • Scenarios-foundation for combat developments. • Influence of digital terrain resolution on automated route selection. • The relevance of quick response tools to air defence in out-of-area operations. • A decision oriented approach to design and development. • Developing maritime scenarios. • Global force capability requirements for US defense planning. • Modelling complex wartime medical systems. • Operations research and improved estimation of medical support requirements. • Modelling the Canadian total force. • Threat related attrition system. • RAF strike command wargaming in support of training and planning.

27. ISMOR Year (2) • The relationship between battle intensity and disease rates among the marine corps combat and support units. • Automated movement planning. • Operational research in the field. • A geopolitical database for policy planning and operations in a new world order. • Identifying wartime manpower requirements through the use of computer simulation. • Scenarios-foundation for combat developments. • Influence of digital terrain resolution on automated route selection. • The relevance of quick response tools to air defence in out-of-area operations. • A decision oriented approach to design and development. • Developing maritime scenarios. • Global force capability requirements for US defense planning. • Modelling complex wartime medical systems. • Operations research and improved estimation of medical support requirements. • Modelling the Canadian total force. • Threat related attrition system. • RAF strike command wargaming in support of training and planning. 1992

28. ISMOR Retrospective: 1984 The first ISMOR included papers on: • Field Trials and Modelling (D Rowland) • Generalised Terrain Modelling Using Graphics (A S & A A M Douglas) • Automated Decision Making in Combat Models (L F Jones) • Human Factor Performance in Combat Modelling (K Ellis & S Labuc)

29. A View on Combat Modelling From The First ISMOR • Generalise Lanchester theory to provide the formal basis for combat theory • Concentrate on the parity condition • Exploit the practical roles of combat theory, which are: • those which arewholly internal to the model world • those which in someway effect a transition between the model world and the real world • those which directly relate to the real world in the sense that they could be used asthey stand in forming the ultimate analytical judgement .

30. A View on Combat Modelling From The First ISMOR (continued) • Sustain the manipulation of symbols • Examine extreme cases • Make an early appreciation of numerical sensitivities • Collect the results from controlled modelling as contributions to theory • Develop combat theory to take advantage of the strides in computer technology Extracted from “Combat Modelling in Defence Studies” by W T Lord

31. Archive of ISMOR Papers • Soft copies of past ISMOR papers • MoD funded • Dstl Knowledge Services • Scanned all ISMOR documents available • Hardcopy still available • All in pdf format • Available for retrospective (just!) • Plan for availability through UK OR Society website & Cranfield University library • Initially an index of titles • available to order subject to approval • Later fully electronic