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Plan to Action?. Dr. Herman van Schalkwyk. Talent: What do we need going forward?. We need young professionals that can take the economy into the next generation. Make agriculture an attractive industry. Need a fresh outlook on the challenges presented by the global economy.
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Plan to Action? Dr. Herman van Schalkwyk
Talent: What do we need going forward? • We need young professionals that can take the economy into the next generation. • Make agriculture an attractive industry. • Need a fresh outlook on the challenges presented by the global economy. • Incorporate new technologies which can: • Improve knowledge and access to knowledge, • Improve yields, • Improve the attractiveness of the agricultural industry, • Improve access to food.
Economic outlook • Cosatu and its effect on the economy and employment must be carefully looked at. • We need to address productivity and limit the effect of strikes. • The SA government has however made significant progress and had numerous achievements over the last two decades. • We are currently out of the recession and may even achieve a growth rate of 4.5% in 2015.
Megatrends • Aging economies shifted the focus towards Africa, • Lower overall global growth rates, • Move from the age of knowledge to the age of intelligence, • Lower returns from passive investments (will make money from increased productivity), • Schools have not adapted to enable young adults for the changing economic environment (young adults are unemployable), • Africa is continent of choice in the near future (Africa has the resources and farming will be profitable), • Wars will continue to be fought, but the game will chance, • Natural disasters will come out of the blue and is regarded as one of the biggest flags in the near future especially in the agricultural sector, • Dictatorial regimes will become rarer, but won't necessarily be replaced by democracy, • Work life balance is now even more illusive.
Political outlook • Labour unrests and instability (social, institutionally, psychologically). • The weak currency • Poor economic performance and expectations • Weak national leadership • Uncertainty about the political and economic sustainability • Both the ANC and the DA supports the NDP • What will the political environment hold for us?
Discussion panel • Capital investment in SA agriculture declined significantly which is a major source of concern, • Increases in net farm income since 2007 has not changed investment trends • Increased labour uncertainty and regulatory environment. • Land reform is a major uncertainty (green paper). • We must put focus on property rights, otherwise investment will not take place. • Land audit needs to be done. • What will the impact of the 52% increase in wages be?
Discussion panel • Certain companies had to restructure and shift focus away from labour costs. • We have to work together to turn labour relations around. • Labour must start to realise that they must be rewarded for productivity. • Must get the balance right between labour costs and productivity. • Skilled labourers versus seasonal labourers. Will this be used to drive political agenda's? • We all need to give our bit to social progress in the country.
What must our action plan be? • We need certainty and stability regarding property rights. • We need a proper selection criteria to improve the success of land reform. • We need to explore ways to stabilise the rural areas to avoid rapid urbanisation. • We need policy certainty and free market to prevail. • We need to limit risks.
Food security, the future? • We are not making progress, the situation is deteriorating. • Looming global food crisis due to severe droughts. • Can address food security through international aid (can be inefficient). • Government intervention to provide food security. • Government should be very careful how they intervene.
Conclusion • As South Africans we may feel that politically, socially and economically we are in a bad shape. Some may even feel that Clem Sunter's 25% chance for a failed state is low. • Negative feelings/thoughts lead to negative actions resulting in the outcomes that we have predicted in the first place. • It is good to know the red flags that was identified by Clem Sunter. • It is also good to be able to identify our countries' problems and challenges.
Conclusion • However, what we need is collaboration, trust, creative thinking and action. • Can we get agreement among politicians on what they want for our country for the long run? • How do we create a caring society? • How do we get South Africans to work to a common good? What is the South African dream? • We owe our children a better future!!
Conclusion • We need: • More dialogue • More collaboration • More understanding • More trust • More solutions • Action, Action, Action…………
Conclusion • If all of us including, labour unions, organised agriculture, government, politicians, business leaders, etc. work together towards a common good we might well avoid the pitfalls that has been identified. This will require leadership. All of us need to contribute. Remember: If I care and you care then we care!!
