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Class of January 13

Class of January 13. Self-interest or public service (Chretien, Goldenberg, research on motivation, Shalala) Choosing a party leader Student presentations on party websites Campaigning: evolution from 1970s to this decade Confidence of the House of Commons, majority and minority governments.

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Class of January 13

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  1. Class of January 13 • Self-interest or public service (Chretien, Goldenberg, research on motivation, Shalala) • Choosing a party leader • Student presentations on party websites • Campaigning: evolution from 1970s to this decade • Confidence of the House of Commons, majority and minority governments

  2. Self-Interest or Public Service? • Jean Chretien: for politicians self-interest and public service inseparable • Goldenberg: MPs want to become ministers, ministers and public servants want money for their departments – PIMBY syndrome, PMs set priorities, make patronage appointments • Research on motivation: people who join public service more altruistic than those who go into private sector • Public Choice – economists’ theory of the public sector

  3. Idealist Alternative to Public Choice Shalala reading • Lead by example and vision, things you want to do to improve the public good • Honesty, integrity, transparency • Don’t fudge the science, don’t let politics dominate policy • Get different disciplines in dept working together • Be willing to face bad news • It’s your friends, not your enemies, who get you into trouble

  4. Choosing a Party Leader • Process: who chooses? How is party membership determined? • Widespread trend to increasing involvement of party rank-and-file • Direct democracy, all party members votes equal: Alberta Conservatives • Representative democracy (Canada): all party members choose some convention delegates (federal Liberals) • Emergency choice of interim leader (federal Liberals) • Representative democracy (US): all voters in the primaries choose some convention delegates for either party • Support for preferred policies vs. broader public appeal • Experience or baggage (Bob Rae, Hillary Clinton, John McCain)?

  5. Campaigning • Student presentation on federal Conservative party website: Ritesh Kotak, Nisha Vijh, Alex Tong • Student presentation of federal Liberal party website: Peng Hao, Stefan Perera

  6. Developments in Campaigning since the 1970s • Leader’s tour: from public rallies to media events • Early US primaries the best example of retail politics • From detailed manifesto to vague promises back to manifestos (Liberal red book, discussed in Goldenberg) • First federal leaders’ debate in 1968; more debates, in both languages, earlier in campaign • Government choosing date for maximum advantage (Blakeney 1978) to fixed election dates (BC, ON) for a majority government • Increase in negative campaigning: personal attacks on party leaders • More sophisticated polling and get-out-the-vote (GOTV) technology • US Democrats: make information available for volunteers to GOTV • Federal Conservatives’ CIMS (constituency management information system) • Use of Internet since 2000, blogs since 2004, networking sites (YouTube and Facebook) since 2006

  7. On-Line Campaigning • An alternative channel to traditional television, radio, print, in-person campaigning • Particular appeal to younger voters • Functions: platform, candidates, pressroom, attacks and defence, “spin” for debates, online posting of ads and speeches, candidate blog or v-blog, fund-raising and volunteering • Your message is direct and unmediated • Fund-raising significance likely to grow with limits on donations • Mybarackobama.com the leading edge in online campaigning, now visit change.gov

  8. Minority Government Math House of Commons has 308 seats majority = 154 Results for 2008 election • Conservatives 143 (125 last Parliament) • Liberals 77 (96 last Parliament) • Bloc Quebecois 49 (49 last Parliament) • NDP 37 (30 last Parliament) • Independent 2 • Speaker (votes with government to break ties) is a Liberal Liberals + NDP + Bloc = 163

  9. The Confidence Convention • The Government (i.e. the Cabinet) must have the confidence of the House of Commons. If defeated in a confidence vote, budget vote, or vote on a significant issue, it must resign. The PM, as the Governor-General’s chief adviser suggests a course of action. The Governor-General (GG) usually dissolves Parliament, leading to an election, but may approach the leader of another party to form a government (more likely early in a mandate).

  10. Parliament – what happens next? • In December, Liberal-NDP coalition with BQ support intended to defeat government in confidence vote over economic statement • Harper asked GG to prorogue Parliament to pre-empt confidence vote • Budget to be presented on January 27 • If budget defeated, Harper will ask GG to dissolve Parliament (because Conservatives better prepared for an election, lead in polls) • Will Liberal-NDP coalition, with Bloc support, ask GG to form government?

  11. The Changeable Federal Electorate Recent history • 1968-84: Trudeau Liberals dominant • 1984: Mulroney (Progressive Conservative) landslide over Turner • Mulroney wins free trade election (1988) • 1993-2003: Chretien landslide over Kim Campbell (PC), PC-Reform split, birth of Bloc Quebecois • 2004: new Conservative party, Liberal minority • 2006: Conservative minority

  12. The 2008 Federal Election • Conservatives entered the campaign with a 10-15 point lead over the Liberals, but didn’t get a majority; Conservatives won swing votes in Ontario, BC • Conservatives’ negative advertising about Dion (not a leader) worked • Harper out of touch with deteriorating economy (“good time to buy stocks”) and cultural spending cuts hurt in Quebec

  13. The Surprising 2007 Ontario Election • Liberals and Conservatives even at start • Liberal strategy: McGuinty delivers results (education, health), attack Tory as a right-wing Mike Harris in disguise • Conservative strategy: Tory a strong leader, attack McGuinty as promise breaker/liar • Tory’s support for faith-based schools became the key issue • John Tory: “leadership matters” • Outcome: 71 Liberal, 25 Conservative, 10 NDP, 1 independent, John Tory not a member, defeated in Toronto

  14. Next Week Readings • Blakeney and Borins, chapters 1,2,3,5,8,18 (cabinet, relations between cabinet and bureaucracy, transition) • Goldenberg, chapter 4 • Chretien, pp. 33-40 (after Flanagan in readings package) • Optional: Goldenberg, chapter 5

  15. Student Presentations Next Week • Two groups of three students, one for the federal Cabinet (Ovi Ahsan, Fahad Jawaid, Karen Ng) and one for the Ontario Cabinet (Jenny Lu, Eleanor Lau, Chris Chung). Explain the composition of each cabinet on the basis of the considerations discussed in Blakeney and Borins, chapter 2 as well as Goldenberg, chapter 4 (ability, loyalty, representation, etc.).

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