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Strategic futures W estern Balkan

Strategic futures W estern Balkan. NFP Meeting, 25-26 February 2007 Anita Pirc Velkavrh. Report: Environmental trends and perspecitves in Western Balkan: towards sustainable consumption (to be published in 2009). Report structure. General environmental trends and perspectives

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Strategic futures W estern Balkan

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  1. Strategic futures Western Balkan NFP Meeting, 25-26 February 2007 Anita Pirc Velkavrh

  2. Report: Environmental trends and perspecitves in Western Balkan: towards sustainable consumption (to be published in 2009)

  3. Report structure • General environmental trends and perspectives • Based on CSI and outlook indicators • Using outcomes from CARDS project plus additional • Driving forces that shape Western Balkan environmental futures 3. Houshold consumption trends and perspectives • Food, transport, housing • Overview of consumption issues • Consumption and quality of life • Impact on the environment • Key trends and future perspectives • Key driving forces • Key actors: government, the business sector and civil society/NGOs

  4. complex and dynamic environment what if... Forward-looking assessment Past and forward-looking INDICATORS SCENARIOS driving forces of future environmentalchange uncertainties

  5. How are these elements addressed in the report? • Emphases of the reportis on driving forces • European and global • Regional • Consumption specific • Uncertainties are at the beginning stage of the analyses • more work is needed • Availability of scenarios is poor; what if question are difficult to answer

  6. Driving forces of environmental change and consumption • Politics • Legislation and policy • Globalisation and Trade • Global environmental change • Macroeconomic development • Markets and business • Land use and natural resource use • Technology • Population and migration • Consumer choice and behaviour • Personal needs, values and lifestyles

  7. Driving force: LAND USE CHANGE AND NATURAL RESOURCE USE

  8. Availability of indicators and scenarios - environment in general • Out of 37 CSI,regional assessment for WB is possible for 19 indicators for past14 indicators for future Bdiv Land use Municipal waste Water --------------------------------- water use Fishing Transport ----------------------------- transport Organic farming Energy--------------------------------- energy GHG emissions air emissions 2. Available scenarios studies: 16 for SEE/WB region and 24 on the country level

  9. Availability of indicatorsrelevant for consumption(food, housing, mobility) • 27 indicators were found relevant to be included • available for WB: • 13 indicators for past • 7 indicators for future

  10. Contribution to SOER 2010 • How can be indicators used in part C or part B? • Others?

  11. THANK YOU !

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