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VAMOS TO THE FUTURE : Report and emerging priorities Hugo Berbery – Dave Gochis C o-chairs

VAMOS TO THE FUTURE : Report and emerging priorities Hugo Berbery – Dave Gochis C o-chairs Iracema Cavalcanti – Paquita Zuidema Officer Members Carlos Ereño ICPO. With many thanks to US CLIVAR for their continued support. Variability of the American Monsoon Systems.

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VAMOS TO THE FUTURE : Report and emerging priorities Hugo Berbery – Dave Gochis C o-chairs

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  1. VAMOS TO THE FUTURE: Report and emerging prioritiesHugo Berbery – Dave GochisCo-chairs Iracema Cavalcanti – PaquitaZuidema Officer Members Carlos Ereño ICPO With many thanks to US CLIVAR for their continued support

  2. Variability of the American Monsoon Systems Science Programs • North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) • Monsoon Experiment for South America (MESA) • VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study (VOCALS) • Intra-Americas Study of Climate Processes (IASCLIP) • Cross-cuts • • Modeling • • Extremes • • Anthropogenic Climate Change • CLIVAR and GEWEX endorsed activity • • La Plata Basin Regional Hydroclimate Project (LPB) • (CLARIS-LPB and IAI-LPB)

  3. VOCALS – Achievements 2010/2011 • VOCALS OBSERVATIONAL SYNTHESES: The 20°S latitude line captures a wide range of boundary-layer/cloud processes, lending itself well to model-observational comparisons • Synthesis papers published documenting SE Pacific clouds and atmospheric structure, composition and variability sampled along 20oS during VOCALS-REx, Allen et al. (2011) and Bretherton et al. (2010) • Seven years of VOCALS cruise data compiled along 20oS and described in deSzoeke et al. (2010) PUBLICATIONS: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (EGU Journal) VOCALS Special Issue set up, currently 30papers in ACP special issue; 60-70 total. VOCALS-REx operations overview paper published (Wood et al. 2011) MEETINGS: Special VOCALS sessions at AMS Cloud Physics Conference (June 2010), and AGU Fall Meeting (Dec 2010); VOCALS 3rd Science Meeting Miami (March 2011); poster cluster planned for WCRP Open Science Conf. (Oct 2011). Special session requested for AGU Fall Mtg (Dec 2011).

  4. VOCALS – Achievements 2010/2011 • MODEL ASSESSMENT: Completion of PreVOCA Model Assessment: Modeling the lower troposphere in Southeast Pacific for Oct. 2006 period pre-VOCALS-REx. Paper published, Wyant et al. (2010). • Large scale dynamics well-represented but representation of clouds is poor in general, and coastal model boundary layers are too shallow •  Second phase of VOCALS Model Asessment (VOCA) began fall 2010, ongoing. Focus is upon aerosol-cloud-climate interactions. Participation from most major modelingcenters. • MODEL DEVELOPMENT: Two Climate Process Teams (CPT) supported by NOAA and NSF will use VOCALS observations and process modeling of VOCALS case studies. • Climate model improvement of PBL representations assessment (e.g. NCAR CCSM)

  5. IASCLIP • An integrated ocean-atmosphere research program focusing on the prediction of the weather and climate impacts of the warm water pool of the Americas (EastPac-Gulf-Caribbean). The WHWP is poorly predicted by research and operational models. • With cooperation of various federal and foreign funding agencies, IASCLIP seeks to improve and expand the observational network across the region as a means to improve NCEP operational models. Early warning systems and long term climate monitoring will benefit from the new network. • IASCLIP seeks to improve operational and research modeling efforts across the Americas through a better understanding of the climate processes within the region.

  6. IASCLIP StatusStatus of the Observational Network and Climate Modeling in the IASCLIP Domain CPO has supported An IASCLIP Team to visit countries within the region to assess government and university interest and possible participation in planned IASCLIP activities Radiosonde StationsLast Reporting Period

  7. The Challenge for the 2011 IASCLIP Forecast Forum is to unravel the indicators that are pushing some models towards El Nino within the backdrop of an active late Amazon monsoon and Atlantic cooling. FSU June Ensemble Forecast The 2010 Warm Water Pool Climatological area of 28.5 isotherm is shaded in red and the contours show the 28.5 isotherm for all ensemble members. The ensembles include 10 members/day from June 15 to June 24, 2010.

  8. Implementing the VAMOS Modeling Plan • Leveraging • WGSIP • VAMOS • CHFP, CMIP5, VOCALS, IASCLIP, NAME, MESA, LPB, CLARIS-LPB, CORDEX … • How To Coordinate Ongoing Activities into a Coherent Narrative? • Enabling/Facilitating Collaborative Science? • Exchange of Ideas VAMOS Modeling Survey:Is Coordination Needed? VAMOS Modeling Workshop Planned for 2012

  9. VAMOS Extremes Working Group Siegfried Schubert and Iracema Cavalcanti (cochairs) • The overall focus is on improving our understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of warm season extremes over the Americas • Develop atlas of warm-season extremes over the Americas • Evaluation of existing and planned simulations • New model runs to address mechanisms and predictability of extremes http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/subseasonal/atlas/Extremes.html

  10. Web page: Charaterizing Extremes for the recent past over the Americas http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/subseasonal/atlas/Extremes.html Basic climatologies Precipitation extremes SPI time series and maps Precipitation return values based on GEV fits, including impact of ENSO Various temperature extremes - latest Data sets: MERRA, CFSR, gridded station obs (CPC, CDC)

  11. Climatology – Annual Cycle of Daily Precipitation Annual Cycle of daily Precipitation MERRA CFSR CDC CPC Choice of Regions NAM Annual Cycle of daily Precipitation CFSR MERRA W. Brazil CPC CDC

  12. VAMOS Extremes WG EXAMPLES

  13. Miami Workshop on Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Processes in the Tropical Atlantic: VAMOS Comments Miami, FL, 23-25 March 2011 VAMOS is interested in promoting overlap with the following research communities: IASCLIP tropical Atlantic/ Intra Americas Seas, NAM, Amazon … VAMOS panel is supportive of a proposal to form a task team with the goals to: 1. refine scope of issue 2. tighten scientific hypotheses 3. structure a research framework

  14. La Plata Basin (LPB) Regional Hydroclimate Project (keywords: extremes, predictability, land use, CC) CLARIS – LPB: A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin IAI: Integrated research projects on land use in the La Plata basin CIC/GEF: Framework Program: Sustainable Management of the Water Resources of the La Plata Basin with respect to the Effects of Climate Variability and Change

  15. CLARIS LPB • 10 countries, 20 institutions • Coordinator: J.-P. Boulanger Courtesy of Anna Sorensson · WP3: Improving our description of recent past climate variability in La Plata Basin · WP4: Hydroclimate pastandfuture low-frequency variability, trends and shifts · WP5: RegionalClimate Change assessments for La Plata Basin · WP6: Processes and future evolution of extreme climate events in La Plata Basin · WP8: Land use, agriculture and socio-economic implications · WP9: Water resources in La Plata Basin in the context of climate change http://www.claris-eu.org/

  16. Integrated research projects on land use in the La Plata basin • Collaborative Research Network Program II (2006-2012) • The impact of land cover and land use changes (LCLUC) on the hydroclimate of the La Plata Basin (CRN2094). • Land use change in the Rio de la Plata Basin: linking biophysical and human factors to understand trends, assess impacts, and support viable strategies for the future (CRN2031). • Small Grant Program for the Human Dimensions (2007-2011) • Climate change and irrigated agriculture • Coming down the mountain: vulnerability of Andean communities to hydroclimatologic variability and global environmental change • Decision support system for risk reduction in soybean agriculture for eastern Paraguay and Rio Grande do Sul • Land use change, biofuels and rural development in the La Plata Basin • Five projects funded by International Development Research Centre (IDRC) (2008-2011)

  17. IAI on LPB: research themes IAI Synthesis Meeting in Asunción, Paraguay (4-7 April, 2011) Land use Rural development How can we unify approaches and refine our knowledge of what drives land use change and transitions? (agent based models, stochastic techniques and scenarios) LCLUC Water Climate Ecosystems Carbon How do LCLUCs interact with climate, Carbon balances, radiation effects, hydrological impacts and overall energy balance? Can the science of those processes be presented in a systematic way? Biofuels Agriculture Societal impacts Human dimensions How did the interdisciplinary collaboration between natural and human sciences contribute to significant advances in knowledge and what did we learn in the process? Vulnerability - Adaptation Capacity Building

  18. CLIVAR Imperatives 1. Anthropogenic Climate Change VAMOS Working Group on ACC NARCAPP + CLARIS LPB + …

  19. CLIVAR Imperatives 2. Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction (Monsoons; Extremes – drought; …) 3. Intraseasonal and Seasonal Predictability and Prediction (Role of land/ocean (GOALS); Initialization; Monsoons, ISV/MJO) VAMOS Working Group on Extremes Siegfried Schubert and Iracema Cavalcanti Annual Cycle of daily Precipitation VAMOS Modeling Working Group Ben Kirtman and Celeste Saulo Model biases

  20. CLIVAR Imperatives 4. Improved Atmosphere and Ocean Components of ESMs 5. Data Synthesis and Analysis 6. Ocean Observing System (Ocean model development; Analysis and Evaluation; Process studies/“Climate Process Teams”) VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study (VOCALS) Roberto Mechoso; Rob Wood Intra-Americas Study of Climate Processes (IASCLIP) Art Douglas AIP - VAMOS/VOCALS Workshop on model biases

  21. CLIVAR Imperatives 7. Capacity Building THE INTERNATIONAL SUMMER SCHOOL ON LAND COVER CHANGE AND HYDROCLIMATE OF THE LA PLATA BASIN VAMOS Newsletter (outreach) International Interdisciplinary In situ Classes + Lab + Field Trip

  22. Contributing as co-conveners Oral presentations Cluster Posters We expect to increase our collaborations with: - US CLIVAR - IAI - Other regional Agencies Thank you

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