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Current and planned research with data collected during the IFEX/RAINEX missions

Current and planned research with data collected during the IFEX/RAINEX missions. Robert Rogers NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division. NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX). GOALS : Through a partnership with HRD, NHC, and EMC, improve forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity by.

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Current and planned research with data collected during the IFEX/RAINEX missions

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  1. Current and planned research with data collected during the IFEX/RAINEX missions Robert Rogers NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division

  2. NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) GOALS: Through a partnership with HRD, NHC, and EMC, improve forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity by • developing and refining observing technologies that improve real-time monitoring of TC intensity and structure; • collecting observations that span the TC lifecycle in a variety of environments to initialize and evaluate the operational numerical modeling system (e.g., HWRF and next generation global models); and • conducting research to improve our understanding of the processes important in TC intensity and structure change (e.g., external and internal impacts on TC structure and intensity, phase changes of moisture and surface fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum)

  3. Vertical cross-section of Doppler winds Lower-fuselage radar image for Hurricane Katrina 1028 UTC 29 August 6 6 9 9 1-km kt 136 90 113 45 0 22 68 Doppler-derived winds at 1 km 1-km altitude GOAL 1: New observing technologyReal-time Doppler Radar analyses • Airborne Doppler radar: • 1st transmission of real-time quality controlled observations and analyses to NHC from aircraft in Hurricane Katrina (27 August, again on 28 August). • Can allow for the diagnosis of wind structure and intensity in real-time • 38 real-time analyses (including Katrina, Ophelia, Rita, Wilma were sent via SATCOM to NHC. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2003/doppler.html

  4. Katrina 110 100 90 80 70 Low bias at high wind speeds reduced 0930 UTC 29 August H*Wind analysis (including Air Force flight-level winds) 0930 UTC 29 August H*Wind analysis (including NOAA SFMR winds) 100 90 80 70 GOAL 1: Refined observing technologyImproved SFMR algorithm for high winds • SFMR: • 1st season with both NOAA WP-3D aircraft operating new commercial SFMR transmitting surface wind estimates back to NHC. • Numerous storms with winds>50 m/s enabled evaluation and modification of operational algorithm to improve surface wind estimation >50 m/s. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2005/sfmr.html

  5. GOAL 2: Lifecycle measurements for model initialization and evaluation 5 tropical cyclones flown from beginning to end of life cycle: • Dennis (tropical storm to post- landfall) - together with NASA ER-2 (TCSP) • Gert (tropical disturbance to landfall) - together with NASA ER-2 (TCSP) • Katrina (tropical storm to landfall) - together with NRL P-3 (RAINEX) • Ophelia (tropical depression to extratropical transition) - together with NRL P-3 (RAINEX) • Rita (tropical storm to hours before landfall) - together with NRL P-3 (RAINEX)

  6. GOAL 2: Lifecycle measurements for model initialization and evaluation Example of use of Airborne Doppler data in HWRF 3-DVar scheme With Airborne Doppler data First-guess field Hurricane Ivan 750 hPa streamlines and isotachs (m/s) valid 18 UTC Sept 7 2004 (from Liu et al. 2006)

  7. GOAL 2: Lifecycle measurements for model initialization and evaluation Example: MM5 simulations of Hurricane Dennis 1.5 km Doppler winds (m/s) 0213-0300 UTC 7 July 2144-2224 UTC 7 July 850 hPa MM5 winds (m/s) 01 UTC 7 July 22 UTC 5 July

  8. GOAL 3: Intensity and structure change research • Research topics • Environmental influences on structure and intensity changes in Hurricane Rita • Along-band variations in microphysical statistics (e.g., transition of vertical motion and reflectivity statistics from convective to stratiform) as sampled by ELDORA and NOAA P-3 tail radars • OSEs and OSSEs using ELDORA and NOAA P-3 tail radar data to design optimal flight tracks for assimilation of Doppler radar data

  9. Structural changes in Hurricane Rita GOAL 3: Intensity and structure change research Environmental impacts on structure and intensity changes in Hurricane Rita CIMSS shear 06 UTC 21 Sept SSM/I 85 GHz 0154 UTC 21 Sept P-3 LF image and flight tracks 19 UTC 21 Sept

  10. GOAL 3: Intensity and structure change research Environmental impacts on structure and intensity changes in Hurricane Rita CIMSS shear 03 UTC 22 Sept TRMM 85 GHz 1442 UTC 22 Sept P-3 LF image and flight tracks 20 UTC 22 Sept

  11. GOAL 3: Intensity and structure change research Environmental impacts on structure and intensity changes in Hurricane Rita CIMSS shear 06 UTC 23 Sept Aqua 89 GHz 0808 UTC 23 Sept P-3 LF image and flight tracks 2145 UTC 23 Sept

  12. GOAL 3: Intensity and structure change research Structural changes in Hurricane Rita 21 Sep 22 Sep Wind speed (m/s) at 5 km Wind speed (m/s) at 1 km Ratio of 5-km to 1-km winds

  13. HRD data sets

  14. HRD data sets

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