1 / 9

ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD

ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD. Presented by Group 3 Members: GUNGOOSINGH Sonali HUNG CHEONG LAN Kriss PIERRE-LOUIS Antoine QUATRE Rudolph RAMDAWOR Nitish. INTRODUCTION. Simple method of population forecasting. Based on the results of at least two censuses.

tan
Download Presentation

ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD Presented by Group 3 Members: • GUNGOOSINGH Sonali • HUNG CHEONG LAN Kriss • PIERRE-LOUIS Antoine • QUATRE Rudolph • RAMDAWOR Nitish

  2. INTRODUCTION • Simple method of population forecasting. • Based on the results of at least two censuses. • Results obtained from extrapolation of values from latest enumeration.

  3. HOW METHOD WORKS? Assumption : Present population density changes uniformly with time. Where P – population at any given time t k – constant rate

  4. HOW METHOD WORKS? Arithmetic Increase Method Equation: Where Pf– future population after time t (years) P0 – present population k – constant rate

  5. EXAMPLE Population of Reduit from following census figures:

  6. EXAMPLE

  7. EXAMPLE P0 = 120,000 k = +857.1 ≈ +860 In 2022 : t = 10  Pf = 120,000 + (860 x 10) = 128,600 In 2032 : t = 20  Pf= 120,000 + (860 x 20) = 137,200 In 2035 : t = 23  Pf = 120,000 + (860 x 23) = 139,780 In 2042 : t = 30  Pf = 120,000 + (860 x 30) = 145,800

  8. DISCUSSION • Simplest method of extrapolation. • Valid if approximately equal incremental increases are noted in recent censuses. • Method gives too low estimates with time. • Used for short term estimates only, i.e. ≯ 30 yrs • Can be applied to population of large cities.

  9. THANK YOU!

More Related