Regional River Management: Recent developments in the Great Lakes Basin

1. M. J. Wiley & M. Omair School of Natural Resources and Environment University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Regional River Management: Recent developments in the Great Lakes Basin

2. Why are we here? • To learn about research and conservation activities in the Gangan Basin • To explore possibilities of collaborative research focusing on River Ecosystem Management

3. Ganga Watershed St. Lawrence Watershed Percent 80 60 40 20 0 Land cover within 5km of the river Land cover within 5km of the river Percent 80 60 40 20 0 Crop Developed Forest Shrubland Grassland Barren Crop Developed Forest Shrubland Grassland Barren

5. The ecological complexity of large river systems and the many, inter-related impacts of our own societies on this ecology, make practical management and restoration activities in large rivers Regional River Management: Recent developments in the Great Lakes Basin • Ecosystem Management Approach : Collaborative, Interdisciplinary, Cross-institutional • Classification frameworks for regional Ecological Inventory, Modeling & Assessment

6. Ecosystem Management Approach: Cross-institutional, interdisciplinary research Collaborative, Stake-holder sensitive Planning and Management Some examples: • {Bi-lateral treaties and management activities (Canada-U.S.)} • Inter-University science supported by state agencies and private foundations • Inter-State collaborations with Federal support: Fisheries Agencies MI,WI,IL, • USGS Great Lakes Aquatic Geographic Analysis Program (AGAP) • Strong involvement of local Citizens, NGO’s, and other stakeholders • Laurentian (Great Lakes) and Gangan Basin Researchers?

7. Michigan Rivers Inventory VSEC units MAP 2. Ecological Classification frameworks for regional Ecological Inventory, Modeling and Assessment 280 main stem river segments and 2000+ tributary units [mri-vsec v1.0]

8. What is Ecological Classification? Identifying the “fundamental units of nature” (Tansley 1935) Biological character Geomorphic character Integrated multi-factor [Ecological] Character of a River Segment Hydrologic character Chemical character

9. structural and functional units of river ecosystems • Functional Ecosystem Units • Watersheds • { = Landscape (Regional) ecosystems? } Structural Ecosystem Units The relatively homogeneous river segments we encounter having distinctive biology, temperature, chemistry, etc.; Valley Segment Ecological Unit = Biogeocoenose = Ecosystem type these are local structural expressions of functional watershed units

10. Raisin River mainstem units

11. Au Sable River mainstem units

12. Example applications: regional inventory Basin-wide hydrologic assessment of classification units useful for regional fisheries resource And water quality planning Lake Michigan Tributary Systems

13. Example application: River Otter (Kotanchik 1997) MDNR Trapping record PCB threshold Hg threshold

14. Otter and contaminant data aligned on MRI-VSEC segments Otters present high trapping success PCB contaminated Hg contaminated both

15. Logistic modeling of Otter distribution Logistic Regression Results Prediction success: 83% Primary predictors: - Extreme hydrologies - PCB contamination - Urban development - Ag development + conifer forests Using moderls to plan restoration

16. Landcover alterations pose a major threat to aquatic ecosystems in the Great Lakes Basin 1820 1995 2020 2040 Modeling timelines for 3-State EPA-STAR project. GIS maps based on original 1810-1830 GLO surveys, Current Air photo, and Neural Net (LTM) projections for the future.

17. Integrated, GIS-linked Computer modeling provides one tool for regional river-based planning and management: Muskegon River example Our goal is to use MREMS to evaluate the risks and benefits of alternate land and water management strategies in a spatially explicit way. A 2002 conference with regional Stakeholders developed specific management scenarios for evaluation. Issues of concern identified by stakeholders in Muskegon River Partnership meetings include: (1) Negative effects of development and urbanization; (2) Increasing bank erosion and sedimentation (3) Impacts of power and recreational impoundments

18. MREMS VSEC Modeling framework Valley Segment Ecological Classification Unit (Seelbach et al. 1997) All modeling input & output is referenced to the VSEC channel units map and can be displayed in GIS format

19. An illustration, from the current Muskegon River study, of our method for linking valley scale ecologicalclassification (VSEC) units to landscape sensitive models. A..Sample sites are used to represent the entire VSEC unit theyoccur in, based on the mapping objective of ecological homogeneity. B.VSEC unit ID # is used to geo-reference andquery the associated catchment, buffers, site databases etc. C. Query results are used as inputs for regional models ofrelevant processes as illustrated here for soluble phosphate load. All segments are processed simultaneously in a matrixmodeling environment. Once modeling is completed predicted results are mapped back into the GIS using the VSECspatial framework. Coupled to changing input data sources on landcoverdistributions, this process can generate bothforecasts and hind-casts of ecological status.

20. 50 40 30 20 10 0 past present future Soluble P per day at high flow (g/d) River classification based assessment and modeling techniques retain high spatial resolution across large regional assessments, and are being used by The Nature Conservancy to map the entire Great Lakes Basin for conservation planning; by the USGS Aquatic GAP Program for the Great Lakes Basin; also in a new Three-State Regional Assessment Project; and in Muskegon River Basin Initiative.

21. The same modeling approaches can be used to organize and interpret biological resource inventories and to identify future risks to river biodiversity

23. Why are we here? • To learn about research and management activities in the Gangan Basin • To explore possibilities of collaborative research on River ecosystem management

24. Generalized Methodology Inventory and Data compilation Landscape analysis leading to regional modeling Ecological Classification Modeling of reference condition Status Assessment Risk Assessment

25. An illustration, from the current Muskegon River study, of our method for linking valley scale ecologicalclassification (VSEC) units to landscape sensitive models. A..Sample sites are used to represent the entire VSEC unit theyoccur in, based on the mapping objective of ecological homogeneity. B.VSEC unit ID # is used to geo-reference andquery the associated catchment, buffers, site databases etc. C. Query results are used as inputs for regional models ofrelevant processes as illustrated here for soluble phosphate load. All segments are processed simultaneously in a matrixmodeling environment. Once modeling is completed predicted results are mapped back into the GIS using the VSECspatial framework. Coupled to changing input data sources on landcoverdistributions, this process can generate bothforecasts and hind-casts of ecological status.