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The Structure of Error Components in 2010 Census Coverage Error Estimation: P-sample estimates

The Structure of Error Components in 2010 Census Coverage Error Estimation: P-sample estimates. Mary H. Mulry & Bruce D. Spencer U.S. Census Bureau Northwestern Univ. 2010 International Total Survey Error Workshop June 15, 2010. Census Coverage Error.

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The Structure of Error Components in 2010 Census Coverage Error Estimation: P-sample estimates

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  1. The Structure of Error Componentsin 2010 Census Coverage Error Estimation: P-sample estimates Mary H. Mulry & Bruce D. Spencer U.S. Census Bureau Northwestern Univ. 2010 International Total Survey Error Workshop June 15, 2010

  2. Census Coverage Error • Net error = omissions – erroneous enumerations = True Pop – census • DSE used to estimate True Pop • Enumeration sample (E-sample) • Population sample (P-sample) • Components of census coverage: Erroneous enumerations Omissions = net error + erroneous enumerations (weighted P-sample not suitable for component error)

  3. Error structure for component errors • Recent studies (Mulry 2008 2009, Spencer 2008 2009) • Have general design for simulation to study synthesis of sampling and nonsampling errors • Have decompositions of E-sample & P-sample nonsampling errors as functions of field & processing errors for net error & component errors • Have considered the data available from evaluations • E-sample models presented at 2009 ITSEW

  4. Dual System Estimator Enumerations not imputed Correct enumeration rate __________________________________________ Match rate DSE = from P-sample

  5. Focus on P-sample • Match rate estimates census enumeration rate for DSE • Sample selected independent of census • 170,000 HUs in US; 7,500 HUs in Puerto Rico • Interviews conducted Aug – Oct 2010 • Census Day was April 1, 2010 • Followup conducted early 2011 after initial matching to collect more info on unresolveds • Final matching after Followup

  6. P-sample seeks to answer to 2 questions • Is person in the P-sample? • Has to live in HU on Census Day • Complication for usual residence: Some move between Census Day & Interview Day • Does the person have a matching census enumeration at usual residence on Census Day?

  7. Interview asks(paraphrased) • Who lives here now? • Did each person live here on Census Day? • If not, where did the person live? • includes probes to aid memory • Did anyone else live here on Census Day? • If yes, where did they move?

  8. People in P-sample Stable Resident lives in sample block on Census Day & Interview Day P-sample out-mover moves to Group Quarters or out of US after Census Day In-mover moves into sample block after Census Day Sample block

  9. P-sample status Yellow = in the P-sample

  10. Types of errors in data affecting P-sample status • Membership in housing unit population • Usual residence on Interview Day • Usual residences on both Census Day & Interview Day • Geocoding housing unit interviewed

  11. How errors in P-sample status occur • Types of errors • Population member • IntD usual residence • CenD & IntD usual res. • Geocoding Failure to detect False detection

  12. Truth: Stable Resident in P-sample Coded out of sample Error Int Day in HU out of sample NP out-mover Not in HU Pop (GQ or out of US on Cen Day) Out-of-scope Int Day & Cen Day in HUs out of sample Interloper

  13. Errors in data causing errors in match status • Usual residence on Census Day • Causes search for match to look in wrong place • Identification of census enumeration • Geocoding housing unit

  14. Truth: Stable Resident has match Coded Error Cen Day in HU out of sample In-mover nonmatch Enumeration not found since items missing Stable resident nonmatch Stable resident nonmatch HU geocoded in wrong block

  15. Missing items can lead to problems in finding a match Census Joe Anders 40 Sue Anders 38 B. Anders 16 P-sample Joe Anders 40 Sue Anders 38 Bob Smith 17 Jim Smith 15 ? “B.” may be Bob, or Jim, or a 3rd son

  16. Geocoding error causes listing HU in the wrong block. Census enumerates in correct block. Match to census enumeration outside the search area is not found. P-sample person is coded nonmatch

  17. Sources of errors • Processing errors • 2 studies evaluate 2010 CCM • Data collection errors • 4 studies evaluate for 2010 CCM

  18. Info on processing error • Matching Error Study • All types of errors • Administrative Records Study • Types of error: ID enumeration, HU pop

  19. Info on data collection error • Respondent debriefings • Types of error: HU pop, CenDay & IntDay usual residence • Study of Missed Housing Units • Type of error: geocoding

  20. Info on data collection error • Recall bias study • Type of error: CenDay usual residence • Comparison of census operations with CCM results • Type of error: geocoding

  21. Next steps • Design estimators of E-sample & P-sample nonsampling errors • For use in simulation study to synthesize errors • Avoid double counting errors • Continue to develop better understanding of error structure

  22. mary.h.mulry@census.gov U.S. Census Bureau

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