2009 Implementation Strategy

1. Wildland Fire Decision Support System and the 2009 Implementation Strategy for the Federal Wildland Fire Policy: Air Quality Tools and Opportunities Pete Lahm – Forest Service Fire and Aviation Management

2. 2009 Implementation Strategy • Every wildland fire will be assessed following a decision support process that examines the full range of responses. • The system currently under development to support this is the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS). • A decision support and documentation system – not a decision making system, • Meets all current operational plan preparation needs, • Meet national, interagency wildland fire management needs.

3. Management Response Principles • Every unplanned wildland fire will receive a management response, • Every response is developed from the full range of tactical responses, • Responses may vary in time as well as in space, • Management responses must meet FMP and Land and Resource Management Plan objectives.

4. 2009 Fire Season National Acres Burned Year-to-date 5.7M 10-yr average 6.4M About 90% of 10-yr ave with Alaska accounting for 3M acres

5. Principles of Decision Support • Decision support processes provide information used by managers when they are making decisions, • Decision support does not replace decision making, • Decision support information comes from a variety of sources, ranging from experience to quantitative analysis procedures, science, • Decision support information has applications across a range of scales and concentrations.

6. What is Needed? • Better risk characterization: • Risk identification • Quality risk-informed decision making: • Risk acceptance - achieving objectives? • How is success measured? • Resource use and tactical decisions: • “speed, agility, and focus” - “overwhelming mass” • potential for success – mobility = decreasing resources when the probability of containment is low – increasing resources when the probability of containment is high. • Better accountability, • Measures of performance, • Decision command and control • Reporting

7. What is WFDSS? • A system that: • Is consistent with accepted models of risk-informed decision making, • presents a risk characterization in support of wildland fire decision making. • makes risk characterization intuitive, logical, relevant, understandable, and accessible. • assembles, consolidates, and presents information to decision makers. • can easily share information among approved users. • An analytic – deliberative process that is an iterative, information-goal directed process. • Web-based with mapping & reporting functions

8. What is WFDSS Used For? • To improve strategic decision making for all wildland fires, • To simplify support to decision making, • To document decisions and rationale, • To simplify decision documentation process and sharing of analyses and reports. • Interrelationships with other databases and information sources, • LANDFIRE • ROSS • ISUITE • FPA

9. When is WFDSS Used? • Eventually on every wildland fire. • For planning purposes prior to ignition and for environmental planning and project planning. • Implementation schedules will vary among agencies (2010 should have all FLM’s using it).

10. WFDSS Process and Events Land and Resource Mgmt Plan Response Level 3 Response Level 1 Response Level 2 Fire Management Plan • Begins at time of ignition • Initial action • No decisions • Basic analysis • Preplanned actions/decisions • Extended action and/or resource benefit objectives • More detailed analysis and planning • Developed Course of Action • Decision(s) • Most detailed analysis and planning • Detailed Course of Action – may include long-term considerations • Decision(s)

11. WFDSS Subsection Areas Information Situation Objectives Course of Action Validation Decision Summary Periodic Assessment

12. Reports Information Periodic Assessment Decision Summary Situation Validation Objectives Course of Action WFDSS Framework Decision Documentation Decision Support WFDSS Implementation Actions

13. WFDSS Air Quality Tools Integration WFDSS AQ Portal Various Air Quality Tools

14. Goals: • To provide “one-stop” portal access to the most useful and relevant air quality tools • To use data from WFDSS to drill-down into existing tools for relevant information • To modify tools as necessary to better serve WFDSS needs • To avoid the need for duplicate entry of information • To provide help and how-to-use instructions • 8 Tools Identified • Includes climatologies, current conditions and forecasts • Many give fire-specific, customized information • More can be added

15. Split by meteorology and smoke impact tools: • Increasing complexity as one proceeds down the page.

17. Fire Information • Fire Location information passed from WFDSS • User can also set Fire Location on page (through Google Maps app or Lat/Lon) • More information from WFDSS to be passed in later versions

18. Tools • Smoke Guidance Point Forecast • Smoke Guidance Maps • RAWS Wind-roses • Current Air Quality Monitoring Data • Climatological Ventilation / Mixing Height Statistics • Probablistic Smoke Impacts based on Climatology • Custom While-you-wait Trajectories • Custom While-you-wait Fuels, Fire Consumption, and Smoke Impact Modeling • Each Tool briefly explained on website • What is this? & How can I use it? information provided for each tool • Tools labeled and searchable based on characteristics to help quickly identify what you are looking for • Tools provided by USFS AirFire, DRI/CEFA, FCAMMS, STI

19. Closer Look • How does it work? • What kinds of output is available? • What can this output be used for? • WFDSS sends information (currently fire location) to a portal website • The website converts this information into forms understandable by the various tools and drills into the tool to show relevant information • Users can upload the resulting maps, etc… back into WFDSS • Text summaries, maps and other graphics • Forecasts, real-time monitoring, and climatological summaries • Long list of user generated potential uses

21. WFDSS Text Air Quality Forecast (active) • Smoke Guidance Point Forecast • 7 day point specific forecast in 12 hour steps • mixing height speed and direction, ventilation rate, Haines Index

22. Product Delivery Web based Animation loops Forecast grid of individual forecasts Raw data output for GACCs (via FTP) Maps available by GACC Google Earth overlay (coming soon)

23. Example mixing height map

24. Example ventilation rate map

25. Example transport wind map

26. RAWS Windroses • Climatological wind directions • Based on nearest RAWS station • Daytime and nighttime treated separately • Single click results from WFDSS portal

27. RAWS Windroses Daytime Nighttime

28. Ventilation Climate Information System (VCIS) • Climatological Mixing Height and Ventilation Index • Based on 40-yr model run • AM and PM treated separately • Single-click results from WFDSS portal

29. VCIS Example Output

30. SMARTFIRE Trajectories • On the fly trajectories • Single click results from WFDSS portal

31. SMARTFIRE Trajectories

33. Custom, while-you-wait fuels, consumption, and smoke dispersion modeling. Uses NWS NAM meteorology and the BlueSky Framework.

39. 2009 Implementation Strategy – After Action Review • Strategy test in 2008 • Strategy out for all Federal agencies March 2009 (after SE fire season and just before western fire season) • Two types Wildland Fire: • Wildfire (unplanned ignition, natural / human) • Prescribed Fire (planned ignition) • Allows multiple objectives on wildfires that are adaptive through time and space tied to FMP and L/RMP • Adaptive to allow risks and potential for success to be fully addressed • Adaptive to respond to changing weather, fuels, resource availability, resource effects, etc.

40. AAR-Results • Interagency group addressed: • Communications • Air Quality • Reporting • Planning • WFDSS/Decision-making • Operations • Interagency comprehensive communications plan released with strategy needed • Assumed multi-year implementation • 2009 was a transition year • Any pre-season work facilitated the transition • Risk discussions held on 30 fire-prone Forests yielded greater understanding and success

41. AAR-Results - continued • Communications • Develop a national interagency comm. plan • Consistent terminology • Training • Interagency Implementation website • Air Quality • Communication plan for wildfire a successful approach (MT/ID) • Outreach plan needed for public • Coordination between agencies/units… • Accountability/evaluation process • WFDSS Air Quality tools • Training

42. First Look: 2010 Fire Season Graphic shows typical El Niño impacts during the winter …but this year’s El Niño is not behaving in the usual way

43. Increased risk of California floods & burned area concerns More Nor’easters

44. Preliminary Wildland Fire Outlook for 2010 Normal to Above Normal to Below Normal to Below ?