Mark Parrington * , Paul Palmer (University of Edinburgh)

1. Forecasting and in situ sampling of boreal biomass burning plumes over Maritime Canada during summer 2011:Flight planning and the first results from the BORTAS aircraft measurement campaign. • Mark Parrington*, Paul Palmer (University of Edinburgh) • David Waugh† (Environment Canada, Dartmouth) • Steven Pawson (NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) • Michel Bourqui (McGill University) • David Tarasick, Huixia He (Environment Canada, Downsview) • Edward Hyer (Naval Research Laboratory) • David Oram, Grant Forster (University of East Anglia) • Tom Duck, Kimiko Sakamoto, Mark Gibson, Jonathan Franklin (Dalhousie University) • *mark.parrington@ed.ac.uk • †david.waugh@ec.gc.ca

2. Overview • BORTAS measurement campaign. • Boreal biomass burning activity in July 2011. • Forecasting boreal biomass burning outflow for the BORTAS measurement campaign. • GEOS-5 CO forecasts. • Forward trajectory forecasts: LAGRANTO and FLEXPART driven by GEM meteorology and initialised with FLAMBE biomass burning emissions. • Observations of predicted boreal biomass burning outflow. • Aircraft measurements of biomass burning outflow over Gulf of St. Lawrence and Island of Newfoundland. • Enhanced aerosol and CO columns observed by lidar and FTIR over Dalhousie Ground Station. • Summary and conclusions.

3. BORTAS measurement campaign • Aerosol numbers distributions, composition (AMS, SP2). • VOCs, alcohols, ketones, aldehydes, ethers (WAS). • NOy speciation (LIF). • HCN, HNO3, formic acid (CIMS). • O3 (UV-abs). • CH3CN/oxygenates (PTR-MS). • CO2, CH4, CO. • j(NO2), j(O1D). • Semi-volatile VOCs. • Based out of Halifax NS, Canada from 12 July to 3 August 2011. • FAAM BAe146 aircraft. • 500 nautical mile range, approx. ceiling at 30000 ft. • 15 flights (including science transit flights between UK and Canada via Azores, ~20 hours). • Support from ground-based, in situ, and satellite observations.

4. Boreal biomass burning emissions during BORTAS-B • Total biomass burning CO emissions gridded to 1º × 1º horizontal grid over BORTAS-B campaign period (12 July - 3 August 2011). • Timeseries of C emissions from FLAMBE inventory for boreal regions through July and August 2011. • Eastern Siberia dominates boreal biomass burning emissions throughout the period. • Plumes from Canadian emissions sampled during aircraft campaign. • Fires in NW Ontario significant in early part of campaign period. Total CO emissions 12 July - 3 August 2011 FLAMBE daily carbon emissions: 1 July - 31 August 2011 Carbon emissions / TgC [1014 molecules/cm2/s] Day of year 2011

5. GEOS-5 CO forecasts • NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5). • global horizontal resolution ½ degree latitude × ⅔ degree longitude, 26 vertical levels (50 hPa vertical resolution in troposphere), 3-hour time resolution. • 5-day forecast output generated at 00z and 12z each day. • Forecast CO tagged for different emissions sources: • biomass burning emissions: boreal (latitudes > 50ºN) and non-boreal. • fossil fuel burning emissions:North America, Europe, Northern and Southern Asia.

6. Smoke plume forecasts from the LAGRANTO Lagrangian trajectory model driven by forecast meteorology from Environment Canada Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. global horizontal resolution 0.3 degree latitude × 0.45 degree longitude, hourly time resolution. animations and plots for BORTAS campaign available online at http://www.meteo.mcgill.ca/bourqui/BORTAS/ Smoke and carbon emissions initialised with Fire Locating And Monitoring of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) inventory. GEM-Lagranto smoke forecasts

7. Smoke plume forecasts from the FLEXPART Lagrangian trajectory model driven by forecast meteorology from Environment Canada Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. global horizontal resolution 0.3 degree latitude × 0.45 degree longitude, hourly time resolution. animations and plots for BORTAS campaign available online at http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/~huixiahe/ Smoke and carbon emissions initialised with Fire Locating And Monitoring of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) inventory. GEM-Flexpart smoke forecasts

8. Forecast outputs at ~1500 UTC on 21 July from forecasts initialized at midnight UTC on 20 July. Comparison of GEOS-5 CO forecasts against GEM-Lagranto (and GEM-Flexpart - waiting for data from Huixia). Consistent plume locations and distributions. GEOS-5 vs. Lagrangian trajectory plume forecasts GEM-Lagranto carbon plume from fires in NW Ontario GEOS-5 forecast CO from boreal biomass burning

9. Observed biomass burning outflow: BORTAS flight B624 Flight plan for 21 July 2011 • Fifth research flight of the campaign, 21 July 2011. • Science plan to sample biomass burning plume in mid-lower troposphere over Island of Newfoundland and Gulf of St. Lawrence. • Flight plan superimposed over GEOS-5 CO forecast at 750 hPa. • Aircraft altitude and measured CO correlate with location of outflow predicted by GEOS-5. Aircraft altitude CO measurements [m] [ppbv]

10. Aircraft observations of biomass burning tracers Aircraft altitude CO and acetonitrile • Biomass burning outflow from fires in NW Ontario observed at low altitude (2-4 km) off East coast of the Island of Newfoundland. • Strong correlation between CO and acetonitrile (CH3CN) observed by the aircraft. • r = 0.97 Altitude / km CO / ppbv; CH3CN / pptv Time / day of year Time / day of year CH3CN / pptv CO / ppbv

11. GEOS-5 predicted boreal biomass burning outflow (forecast initialised on 20 July, midnight UTC) in mid to lower troposphere over Halifax starting just before midnight 21 July. Layers of enhanced aerosol backscatter observed during aircraft spiral over Halifax and by Dalhousie lidar coincident to timing and altitude of predicted outflow. Two distinct layers observed at 2 km and 5km altitude correlate with enhanced CO and CH3CN. Enhancements in other measurements made at Dalhousie Ground Station: presented by Mark Gibson and Jonathan Franklin. Observed vertical profiles of biomass burning outflow over Halifax GEOS-5 CO from boreal biomass burning, 20110720_00z Approx. altitude / km 20 July, 12z 21 July, 00z 21 July, 12z [ppbv] Spiral aircraft profiles over Halifax, ~0100 UTC, 21 July 2011 Altitude / km Altitude / km Dalhousie lidar CO / ppbv; CH3CN / pptv Green backscatter coefficient / ×10-4

12. BORTAS measurement campaign, based out of Halifax NS, took place between 12 July and 3 August 2011. plumes from Canadian forest fires (especially in NW Ontario) seen throughout campaign period. Forecasts of plumes of biomass burning outflow for the BORTAS measurement campaign were used to direct the deployment of the aircraft. GEOS-5 CO forecasts provided reliable forecasts of the timing and location of plumes. Predictions of plume timing and location from Lagrangian trajectory models driven by GEM meteorology were consistent with GEOS-5 forecasts. The aircraft sampled the predicted boreal biomass burning outflow on the majority of the research flights. Aircraft measurements of biomass burning outflow over Gulf of St. Lawrence and Island of Newfoundland. Strong correlation between measured CO and CH3CN (and other organic species associated with biomass burning, not shown). Enhanced aerosol and CO columns observed by lidar and FTIR over Dalhousie Ground Station. Summary and conclusions