Research Director , Adjunct P rofessor Jari Kaivo-oja Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC)

1. Changing Social Structures in the Baltic Sea Region: urgent NEEDs for target minded Baltic Sea green growth co-operation and systemic social innovations ResearchDirector, AdjunctProfessor Jari Kaivo-oja Finland FuturesResearch Centre (FFRC) Turku School of Economics, University of Turku

2. Changingeconomicstructures: keythemes • Green growthparadigm, globalclimatechange, CO2emissions • Economicgrowth, employment, investments • Householdincomes, welfare, • Incomedistribution • Varioustrendanalyses

3. Fromtriplehelix to quartethelix (Kaivo-oja 2011) The Academia The Industries The Government Consumers and end-users

4. Sixthwave and greengrowth as an europeanchallenge The expansion of resource efficienttechnologies Globalization: decentralization of globalpowers The rise of bioeconomy Key megatrends Key Driverds for the 6th Wave Key innovationplatforms Demographicchange Implyingageing and longevity Digitalization and dominance of second economy Growth of healthservices Key trajectories for social change Maturingenvironmentalconcerns Rise of complexdocieties Web-basedempowerment of people

5. 3-level model of systemicinnovation Landscape SixthWave: Megatrends and macrotrends Socio-technicalregimes Socio-technicalregime A Socio-technicalregime B Socio-technicalregime C Socio-technicalregime D Socio-technicalregime E Nichelevel: New ideas and inventions Niche B Niche C Niche D

6. From internet to robotics: a futuresource for productivity and smartness Source: ASIMO 2012 SeemoreEuropeanRoboticsWeek 2013: http://www.eurobotics-project.eu/eurobotics

7. Systemicinnovationperspective: ”Killer innovationmodel” (Kaivo-oja 2011) Systemic TBI innovation Business-innovation Technologicalinnovation Social innovation

8. Example of systemicinnovationthinking(Korean Ubiquitous City Association 2006)

9. Green growthstrategy as innovationchallenge (Green Growth Knowledge Platform 2013) Green growth requires that public agencies are • (1) able to price externalities and value environmental assets, • (2) stakeholders are able to find innovations (technological, business and social innovations) to break unsustainable development paths, • (3) the creation and dissemination of new environmentally sustainable technologies, goods and services, • (4) sectoral shifts and changes in comparative advantage that inevitably imply winners and losers.

10. Green Growth and Needs of Socio-CulturalChanges (Source: GreeenGrowth Knowledge Platform 2013)

11. Stages of Public Policy for the BalticSeaPolitics Typical stages of public policy are: • (1) Agenda setting, • (2) policy formulation, • (3) decision-making, • (4) policy implementation and • (5) monitoring and evaluation.

12. GDP growth (%) in the BalticSeacountries, years 1961-2012

13. Baltic Sea region (average growth rate of 11 BS countries, %)

14. Average economic growth, Baltic Sea countries (average GDP growth of the BS countries, %)

15. Employment rates of native- and foreign-born population by educational attainment in some Baltic Sea countries, year 2007 (OECD 2012)

16. Employment rates of native- and foreign-born population by educational attainment in some Baltic Sea countries, year 2011 (OECD 2012)

17. Real household disposable income: changes in some Baltic Sea countries (OECD 2012)

18. Investments (Grossfixed capital formation, % changes) in someBalticSeacountries, in the EU-27, EA17, Russia: changes in 1999-2001, 2008-2010 (OECD 2012)

19. Active population in the Baltic Sea countries (%, 15-64 years old)

20. Active population in the BalticSearegion, years 1960-2012

21. Youth population under the age of 15 in some Baltic Sea countries and in the EU-27, 2000-2050 (OECD 2012)

22. Elderly population (65 or over 65 years) in some Baltic Sea countries and in the EU-27, 2000-2050 (OECD 2012)

23. Population less than 15 years old and 65 or over 65 years old in the Baltic Sea countries (OECD 2012)

24. Value added of industry in the Baltic Sea countries (%, value added of GDP), years 1966-2010

25. Average, valueadded (% of GDP) in Balticcountries, years 1996-2010

26. High-tech exports in some Baltic Sea countries, years 2007-2012 (Eurostat 2013)

27. Employment in high- and medium-high-technology manufacturing sectors, Share of total employment (%) (eurostat 2013)

28. Employment in knowledge-intensive service sectors, share of total employment in some Baltic Sea countries, years 1997-2008(eurostat 2013)

29. Research and developmentexpenditure, bysectors of performance, % of GDP (Eurostat 2013)

30. CO2 emissions in Germany, in Poland and in the Russian Fed., years 1992-2009

31. CO2 emissions (tons) in Baltic Sea countries, years 1992-2009

32. Grossdomesticexpenditure on R&D in someBalticSeacountries, years 1981-2010

33. Venture capital investments, % of GDP in some Baltic Sea countries, years 2007-2012 (Eurostat 2013)

34. Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D - GERD (million current PPP $) in EU-28, EU-15, USA, Japan, China, Russia and South Africa

35. Some POLICY recommendations • Co-operation in the field of the development of social innovations (education, employment and jobcreation) is a challengingissue in the BalticSearegion: morestrategicco-operation is neededamong BS partners • Moreproductiveuse of innovation and R&D allocationsareneeded in nearfuture • BalticSeacountriesshould position themselvesmoresystematically and aggresively in the globaltradearena • The BalticSeacountriesarekeyplayers in the EU´sinnovationpolicyarene: theyshouldgetmoreattention inside in the R&D/innovationfield the European Union • Green Growthchallenge is a sharedchallenge in the BalticSeacountries: Green Growth Knowledge Platformneedsmorepoliticalattention in the BalticSeaco-operation

36. Thankyou! ResearchDirector, Adjunct Prof. Jari Kaivo-oja Finland FuturesResearch Centre, Turku School of Economics Email: jari.kaivo-oja@utu.fi Web: http://www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/Pages/home.aspx Tel. +358-(2) 333 9832, +358-(41) 753 0244