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5. EAST ASIA UNITED? Why does Asian – or Asian-Pacific – integration

5. EAST ASIA UNITED? Why does Asian – or Asian-Pacific – integration (or non-integration) matter? Why are APEC & ASEAN in trouble? Why has ASEAN+3 ‘taken off’? What stands in the way of a (more) ‘united’ East Asia? What must happen for a (more) united East

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5. EAST ASIA UNITED? Why does Asian – or Asian-Pacific – integration

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  1. 5. EAST ASIA UNITED? • Why does Asian – or Asian-Pacific – integration • (or non-integration) matter? • Why are APEC & ASEAN in trouble? • Why has ASEAN+3 ‘taken off’? • What stands in the way of a (more) ‘united’ • East Asia? • What must happen for a (more) united East • Asia to develop?

  2. WHY DOES ASIAN (OR ASIAN-PACIFIC) INTEGRATION MATTER? • Single East Asian market could have favourable impact on business environment • United EA would have stronger influence on trade rules • United EA would have greater capacity for management of regional crises & other issues • United EA would create tripolar world with possibility of shifting alliances between US, EU & EA • United EA could prompt US military withdrawal … whereas AP integration would secure US role, influence

  3. 2. WHY ARE APEC & ASEAN IN TROUBLE? • Both caught unawares & unprepared by Asian crisis – credibility affected. • APEC hamstrung by irreconcilable US-Japan trade rows • Crisis destabilized ASEAN’s ‘anchor’ state – Indonesia • ASEAN weakened by Indo-Chinese enlargement • Crisis awakened protectionist reflexes of some ASEAN states – especially Malaysia • ASEAN can’t be master of own economic destiny (1.5% of world economy only!)

  4. 3. WHY HAS ASEAN+3 ‘TAKEN OFF’? • Impact of Asian economic crisis: • * Heightened awareness of economic interdependence • of Northeast & Southeast Asia. • * Resentment v. US about IMF’s management of crisis • * Expectation that Japan would manage it more ‘gently’? • Asian reaction to US-Japanese conflicts in APEC • Absence of global trade liberalization progress • Growing perception of ‘common foe’ (US) • Inter-state coordination ‘practice’ through ASEM (Asia-Europe Meeting)

  5. 4. WHAT STANDS IN THE WAY OF A (MORE) UNITED EAST ASIA? • The US (whose military presence is widely valued)? • No less diverse than ASEAN itself in terms of: • * Economic systems, openness & development • * Political systems • * Patterns of external relations • * Continuing strong intra-regional tensions (N/S Korea; • China/Taiwan; China/Japan; Thailand/Myanmar, etc) • Lack of unequivocal, acceptable hegemonic power: • * Japan – economically dominant, but – WWII memories • * China – demographically dominant, but – still weak • economically & mistrusted (authoritarian politics)

  6. WHAT MUST HAPPEN FOR (MORE) UNITED EAST ASIA TO DEVELOP? • Comparatively rapid economic growth (leading to growing interdependence) • Reduction of vast economic disparities • Resurgence of economic regionalism elsewhere in response to stalled global trade liberalization talks • Democratization in still authoritarian states • Defusing or ‘containment’ of regional ‘flashpoints’: • * Koreas’ conflict • * China/Taiwan • * Internal conflicts in Indonesia • Sino-Japanese reconciliation • Strong political leadership – more Kim Dae Jungs! • Reforms to make such leadership possible in Japan

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