The Taiwan – China Question

1. The Taiwan – China Question Juha Tähkämaa, M. Soc. Sc. University of Turku AsiaNet 2005

2. The Taiwan – China Question • ORIGINS & CURRENT SITUATION •  CURRENT ARGUMENTATION OF THE PRC AND ROC •  US POSITION ON THE TAIWAN ISSUE •  FUTURE PROSPECTS TAIWAN IS NOT A STATE OR COUNTRY – ITHASNO PRESIDENT, PARLIAMENT OR GOVERNMENT

3. Origins of the Taiwan Question • Migration from southern China from the 17th century on → the Taiwanese • Under Chinese jurisdiction from 1684 • Occupied by the Japanese 1895 • Returned to China 1945, at the time Republic of China • Chinese Civil war →The Republic of China defeated and withdrew to Taiwan in 1949

4. The Birth of Two Chinas • The Republic of China (on Taiwan) ↔The People´s Republic of China (in mainland) • Both claimed to be the sole legal government of China and rule the same area (mainland & Taiwan island) • Both agree (even today) that Taiwan is a part of China →the question is of which China • Neither conceded defeat in the Civil war

5. Two Chinas • The PRC (People´s Republic of China • The ROC (Republic of China)

6. The Taiwan Question and the US • The US had supported the ROC in mainland for years • Support cut-off in the aftermath of WWII because of ROC`s inefficiency and corruption + the attack on the communist party • After 1949 the US considered the ROC a lost cause • Korean War in 1950 changed everything → The ROC became an indispensable ally • Defense Treaty in 1954 • The US diplomatically recognised the ROC

7. The ROC Government in Taiwan • Relationship to the Taiwanese strained • Marshall Law imposed on the island in 1949 -> lasted until 1987 • Civil rights of the Taiwanese severely limited • No Taiwanese political opposition allowed to emerge • Official policy was to retake mainland • The ROC government ruled with the political support of the US government until 1979 • After this the US started to pressure the ROC government to democratizise its political system

8. The PRC Arguments on the Taiwan Question • Taiwan is a part of China → historical reasons • There is but one China and that is the PRC → the ROC ceased to exist in 1949 • The Taiwan Question is an internal affair → as Taiwan belongs to China, its fate is an internal affair

9. Key PRC Documents of Taiwan Policy The PRC Constitution (1982): “Taiwan is part of the sacred territory of the People's Republic of China. It is the lofty duty of the entire Chinese people, including our compatriots in Taiwan, to accomplish the great task of reunifying the motherland”

10. Key PRC Documents of Taiwan Policy Taiwan White Paper 1993 (Taiwan Affairs Office, latest document) • The Taiwan question is an internal question of China • The Taiwan question is largely caused by the intervention of foreign powers dating from the Opium Wars and the Unequal treaties of the 1920´s, and later the US in the 1950´s. • Taiwan has been a part of China from 17th century onwards • Taiwan has been given back to China after the Second World War • The Cairo Declaration of 1943 clearly states that Taiwan shall be returned to China (NB!) • Taiwan and China shall be reunited according to the idea of “peaceful reunification” and under the “One Country, Two Systems” policy.

11. Key PRC Documents of Taiwan Policy The One China Principle and Taiwan Issue 2000 • a response to the growing Taiwanese independence movement and Taiwanese consciousness on the island. • China (PRC) won the civil war over the ROC and replaced the ROC as the sole legitimate government of China and the sole representative of China in the international arena. Therefore the PRC government exercises sovereignty also over Taiwan, which was returned to China after the Second World War.

12. PRC Starting Point: • The ROC government is not a legitimate government anymore and has not been since 1949, when the PRC was established. • The ROC has no right to govern over Taiwan and should admit defeat and concede Taiwan to China. • This would mean the end of the ROC government as it exists now, and the ultimate resolution of the Chinese Civil War and the Taiwan Question.

13. PRC Unification Policy One Country, Two Systems • Taiwan can maintain its capitalistic economic system • Taiwan can have its own currency • Taiwan can have its own military • Taiwan can have its own representative offices abroad • Taiwan can maintain its own judical system • All matter of foreign and defence policy will be decided in the central government of China • Taiwan can have its representative in the central government

14. PRC Unification Policy • BUT: Taiwan would become a part of the PRC with a similar status than Hong Kong, more or less • “Peaceful reunification” a key issue → China wants it to happen without the use of force • However, the PRC reserves an option to use force if Taiwan declares independence • The Taiwanese oppose One Country, Two Systems and demand that China gives up the threat to use force → China refuses to do either

15. The ROC´s Political Development and Unification Policy I • Between 1950´s and 1970´s a hostile policy towards the PRC • The goal was to retake mainland and overthrow the communist government • Three No´s policy: no contacts, no negotiations, no compromise (no travel, mail, telephone, shipping or flights to mainland China) • The dream of retaking mainland became unrealistic latest in the 1970´s • In 1971 ROC lost its seat in the UN and in 1979 the US cut its diplomatic ties to ROC and recognised the PRC → The end of the ROC´s international status

16. The ROC´s Political Development and Unification Policy II • The US pressured the ROC to democratize its political system in Taiwan • Chiand Ching-kuo started to gradually democratize Taiwan, but no change in China policy (died 1987) • 1986 DPP 1988 Lee Teng-hui → full democratization • 1992 Parliament elections →more Taiwanese in the leading positions of the ROC government in Taiwan (Pres. Lee!) • Changes in China policy and a more Taiwanese identity

17. The ROC´s Political Development and Unification Policy III Guidelines for National Unification 1991 • The goal is a “free, democratic and equitably prosperous China” • Acknowledges the One China principle and states that Taiwan is a part of the Chinese territory • Short term goal: both sides acknowledge each other as political entities and renounce the use of force • Mid-term goal: establishment of direct transport & communication lines • Phase three: unification • Ultimate goal: unification and a new constitution for a democratic China

18. The ROC´s Political Development and Unification Policy IV • Critics: make unification impossible and ensure that Taiwan and China will never unify • Already the shot term goal is practically unreachable • LTH heavily criticized from PRC • Chen Shui-bian president in 2000 • Even more pro-Taiwan in his policies than Lee • Has constantly irritated the PRC with his statements • Taiwan a “sovereign nation” or “sovereign country” • Has even managed to anger President Bush

19. Political Parties in Taiwan and Their China Policy I • Democratization has lead to the mushrooming of political parties • Four major parties garner 90% of votes The KMT: • Founded the ROC in 1912 • Withdrew to Taiwan in 1949 • The only party in the ROC government and parliament in Taiwan until 1992 • Initial policies towards PRC hostile • Change in the 1990´s → currently considered to be moderately pro-China • Does not exclude unification • Lien Chan 2004: unification not a goal • Internally divided on the issue

20. Political Parties in Taiwan and Their China Policy II The DPP: (Democratic Progressive Party) • Founded in 1986 • The first opposition party in Taiwan • Does not support unification with China • Stand on the independence issue shifting: occasionally favors openly, occasionally not • In general and internationally regarded as a pro-independence party

21. Political Parties in Taiwan and Their China Policy III The PFP: (People First Party) • A spin-off from the KMT established in 2000 • Chairman James Soong ambiguous on China policy • Basically moderate and conciliatory towards China • Does not support Taiwan independence • Stand on One China wavering • Will perhaps merge with the KMT?

22. Political Parties in Taiwan and Their China Policy IV The TSU: (Taiwan Solidarity Union) • Founded by former President and KMT chairman Lee Teng-hui • The most radical pro-independence party • Aims to create the Republic of Taiwan • Most voters in Southern Taiwan • A buffer-party for the DPP? • Support diminished in the 2004 parliamentary elections

23. Political Parties in Taiwan and Their China Policy V General remarks: • Open debate about independence vs. unification has increased in Taiwan since the 1990´s • Still most parties try to remain ambiguous on the issue in order not to alienate voters • Voters are cautious and favor status quo • Debate about independence has increased, but not perhaps support

24. The US Position on the Taiwan Question I • The US role on the Taiwan question crucial → the Defense pact in the 1950´s + military troops on the island • Severing of diplomatic ties in 1979 The Shanghai communiqué w/PRC in 1972: • The US states that there is but one China • Taiwan is a part of China • Promises to withdraw its troops from Taiwan

25. The US Position on the Taiwan Question II Joint communiqué of 1978 w/PRC: • Establishment of diplomatic ties • The US acknowledges the government of the PRC as the sole legal government of China • The people of the US maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan • The US acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is a part of China

26. The US Position on the Taiwan Question III Taiwan Relations Act 1978: • The US will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services….to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability • Not an international agreement, just a domestic US act

27. The US Position on the Taiwan Question IV • The basic US position since 1979 has been that the Taiwan question should be resolved by peaceful methods • Neither side should take unilateral actions • Does not state that the Taiwan issue is a domestic issue, as the PRC constantly states • George W. Bush very favorable towards Taiwan • 2001: “Whatever it takes” comment → caused international alarm • 2003 statement with Wen Jiabao: strong opposition to President Chen´s proposed referendum

28. Recent Developments Between China and Taiwan • Some positive developments have taken place during the past 15 years • No official contacts still exist • Travel between China and Taiwan allowed since the end of the 1980´s • Currently 1 million Taiwanese live in China and 25 million trips are made from Taiwan to China → only 800,000 from China to Taiwan • Economic integration immense • More than USD 100 billion invested from Taiwan to China? • Taiwanese enterprises account for most of China's IT-exports

29. Recent Developments Between China and Taiwan II • Political hostilities remain • No direct flights • Specialized Shipping Zones in Taiwan (Kaohsiung harbor) • “Direct” charter flights during the Chinese New Year 2004 & 2005 • Taiwanese business leaders pressure the government to open up direct links

30. Unification or Independence? • More than 80% of Taiwanese favor status quo (www.mac.gov.tw) • About 10% favor immediate unification or independence • More than 80% do not support One Country, Two Systems policy • Chen Shui-bian & desinification • The ROC state apparently has no future • If Taiwan declares independence, the PRC will attack • Perhaps economic integration will push China and Taiwan together • The PRC, ROC and US agree that Taiwan belongs to China, but to which China? • The Taiwan independence movement questions this viewpoint .