The Frozen Conflict in Transnistria : Implications for European Neighbourhood Policy

1. The Frozen Conflict in Transnistria: Implications for European Neighbourhood Policy February 18, 2005 Seminar organized by: The Centre for European Policy (Brussels) The Open Society Institute (Brussels) The Moldova Foundation (Washington, D.C.)

2. Threats to Moldova • About 40% of Moldova’s industry is concentrated in Transnistria; there is no privatization or other economic reforms • Moldova is loosing millions of US dollars annually due to smuggling, and other illegal operations in Transnistria • Over 1 billion of USD as accumulated debts of Transnistria , which is considered as Moldova's debts to Russian Gazprom • Ethnic cleansing continues in the last 15 years in Traqnsnistria: the last 15 Romanian-language schools were closed and sealed in July - August, 2004 by Security Forces of Transnistria; two of these schools were partially destroyed, while Latin Script was prohibited in use • Transnistrian army: 18.000 gunmen; equipped with tanks, aircraft, reactive missiles, other conventional weapons from the Russian military arsenal of 14th Army

3. Threats to the regional & international security • Transnistria is a haven for: • Drug trafficking • Human trafficking • Money laundering • Arms smuggling; sources: • Huge Russian military arsenal • Local arms manufacturers: • small arms • Grad and Duga multiple-rocket launchers • antitank mines • rocket-propelled grenades • Alazan rockets modified to carry radioactive material

4. Trigger of change • growing consent across society, political parties, NGOs, that conflict settlement is a real priority for the country • civil society initiative, with 27 of NGOs supporting the 3D Strategy in September 2004 • massive popular disapproval of the federalization, with 74% of the population against it (Opinion Barometer, 1998 - 2004, IPP) • new international 'windows of opportunities' (EU and NATO Enlargement, Action Plan EU - Moldova within the ENP)

5. The 3D Strategy and Action Plan for the Settlement of the Transdniestrian conflict

6. Objective: to reach a long-lasting and sustainable resolution of the “frozen” conflict, followed by full and comprehensive re-integration of the break away region into the constitutional realities of Moldova Methodology: Demilitarization Decriminalization Democratization Timeline: 2005- 2008 (4 years)

7. 3D implementation mechanism • Substitution of the negotiation format (CSIA) • Supervisory Council • International Civil Provisional Administration (ICPA) • Civil Police Force under UN mandate (CPF) • Crisis Management Unit (CMU) • Special Fund for Regional Development • Regional Ombudsman

8. Main tools of the settlement strategy (schema - map)

9. Demilitarization • Full and unconditioned withdrawal of Russian troops and ammunition • Decommission paramilitary, security and other military forces and secure the repatriation of foreign national mercenaries illegally deployed in the region • Confiscation of all weapons held by various groups and decommission regional arms-manufacture plants

10. Demilitarization – Withdrawal of Russian troops and ammunition • FULL and UNCONDITIONED • Overseen and monitored by ICPA and technical assistance UN agencies, OSCE • Confirmed and acknowledged by credible international experts • CPF immediately take control over the remaining supplies • ICPA assess environmental damage

11. Demilitarization – Decommission and repatriate illegal military forces • Neutralize combat readiness, set up controls over the combat hardware and arms • Complete dissolution of forces • Withdrawal of citizens of neighboring states who were enrolled in the secessionist structures and declaration as non grata persons • Conduct professional investigation on their former activities to deal with insecurity in the region • Reintegration of appropriate military personnel intro special peacekeeping units

12. Demilitarization – Confiscation of arms and stop arms production • Collection of conventional ammunition and weaponry • Cease, suspend, block existent arms production facilities in the region • Install strict customs control • Install control over Tiraspol airport

13. Decriminalization • Curb and ultimately suppress transnational regional organized crime • Offer opportunities for reintegration in a law-abiding order

14. Decriminalization-suppress organized crime • eradication of illegal income sources and ways of making fraudulent profits • Removal of actors involved in illegal trafficking • Freezing of foreign accounts of the separatist regime • Pass legislative amendments to disband groups • Oversee cross border traffic on railways and highways • Set up international customs missions • Establish control over Tiraspol airport

15. Decriminalization- re-integration in a law abiding environment • - Allow East investment only if registered and working under RoM laws • Pass legislative amendment to regulate the re-integration • Conduct investigations into the origin of the capital in the region • All resources collected from accounts, assets and other property illegally held by top separatist leaders deposited in the Special Fund for the Development of the Region

16. Democratization • Recovery and relief for the civil population residing in the region • Institutional, social and economic development

17. Democratization – Recovery and relief • Dismantle the Soviet type structures • End the region’s political, psychological and informational isolation • Assist the population to overcome propaganda-inculcated fears and stereotypes • Return refugees to their homes, restitute seized assets and property • Restore and upgrade basic public services • Reintegration of businesses from the region into unified legal economic area and consolidate market economy • Create democratic climate, preparatory to the holding of local elections in 2006 and general elections 2009

18. Democratization - Development • -enhance local autonomy and participation in public life (co-owners of change and not part of the problem) • consolidate independent and professional civil institutions (judiciary, schools, media) • Implement international human rights standards, ensure civil and political rights • Encourage West capital investments, involve local businesses to promote law based market economy • Support local democratic initiatives and institute multi-year programs to promote administrative capacities and Rule of Law • Identify and support democratic, Europe-involved local political leaders

19. Action Plan – central authorities of RoM • Development and approval by Parliament of a conflict settlement strategy • Reconsideration of the Moldo-Russian Ceasefire Agreement 1992; Disavowal of the 1997 Memorandum • Official request to replace peacekeeping troops (Russian) with CPF operating under an UN mandate • Development of a comprehensive program for the reintegration of the population • Conditional recognition of privatization carried out in the region • Review and development of the legislative framework in Moldova on the political and administrative decentralization • Participation in the creation of a Special Fund for the reconstruction of the region • Effective support and logistics for the installation of the ICPA in the region

20. Action Plan – EU and USA • Involvement in negotiations under the new "3+1+3" format and formulation of a common position – CSIA • Effective support and resources for the installation of the ICPA • Creation and allocation by the EU of a Civil Police Force for Moldova (CPF) • Negotiation and coordination of a multi-annual program of technical assistance from the EU and UN • Finalizing the process of destruction of ammunition and withdrawal of foreign arms and troops • Systematic and thorough inspection of weapons stocks in the separatist region • Support the implementation of a radical reform of its security structures, including reform of civilian security

21. Action Plan – International communityUN, OSCE, WTO, Stability Pact • Replacement of the current peacekeeping forces with civil police troops under an international mandate • Changing the mandate of the mediating countries • Surveillance through Interpol of mafia chiefs, traffickers in arms and human beings, smugglers from the region • Participation in the creation of a Special Fund for the reconstruction of the region

22. Action Plan - Ukraine and Romania • Participation in the design and functioning of the CSIA • Initiating consultations with Moldova on forging a common position towards the EU's Neighborhood Policy • Dislocation of organized crime in the region through a new framework of coordination and cooperation • Open a branch of the Ukrainian and Romanian Consular Office in one of the major cities of the region • Monitoring of commercial and trade relations between Ukrainian and Romanian business and Transnistrian companies

23. Action Plan – Russian Federation • Complete, immediate and full withdrawal of Russian military units, ammunition and all combat vehicles and arms from the region • Participation in the design and functioning of the CSIA • Breaking off all official relations with the leaders of the unrecognized, separatist PMR • Effective support for the implementation of the Road Map • Participation in the creation of a Special Fund for the reconstruction of the region • Participation of Russian firms in the process of destruction of ammunition that cannot be withdrawn from the region

24. Action Plan – Civil Society • -Establishment of a Coalition of NGOs for the territorial reintegration of Moldova • -Creation and multiplication of a network of Information and advice centers • -Monitoring of aggressive propaganda of hate speech, and increasing democratic influence on public opinion • Creation of social and public/private partnerships at local community level in the eastern districts • Setting up democratic support groups in the region through democratic education programs • Encouragement of the establishment of a pro-European network of youth organizations in the region

25. 3D strategy supported by 26 NGOs