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Study on future fuels for cargo vessels in the Baltic Sea

Study on future fuels for cargo vessels in the Baltic Sea. Nasif Rahman Laiva 2025 Espoo, 29.08.2013. Objectives. To analyze four non-conventional fuels considering Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) and Marine Gas Oil ( MGO ) combination as baseline properties Fossil fuels

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Study on future fuels for cargo vessels in the Baltic Sea

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  1. Study on future fuels for cargo vessels in the Baltic Sea Nasif Rahman Laiva 2025 Espoo, 29.08.2013

  2. Objectives • To analyze four non-conventional fuels considering Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) and Marine Gas Oil (MGO) combination as baseline properties • Fossil fuels • Liquefied natural gas (LNG) • Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) • Biofuels • Biodiesel (B100) • Bioethanol (E85) • Marine Gas Oil (MGO) as main fuel • To analyze the ability of these fuels to fulfill future (2025) environmental regulations on air emissions • To carry out a cost analysis based on the net present value (NPV) calculations of a case ship with the five fuel options Laiva 2025

  3. Major Upcoming regulations Laiva 2025

  4. Air emission assessment model (AEAM) Laiva 2025

  5. Case study: m/s Eira • Ice Class IA Super: Baseline case • 14 nautical mile per hour (knots) • 75% maximum continuous rating (MCR) of the engines • Ice Class IA • 14 knots • 75% maximum continuous rating (MCR) of the engines • Ice Class IA Super slow steaming: • 11 nautical mile per hour (knots) • 50% maximum continuous rating (MCR) of the engines Source: ESL Shipping Oy Laiva 2025

  6. Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) calculation for different fuels • EEDI = • The calculated EEDI is a theoretical measure of the CO2 mass emitted per unit of transport work (grams CO2 per ton nautical mile) for a particular ship design • Variation in carbon content and specific fuel consumption of fuels • Variation in engine’s power requirement for different Ice Class Laiva 2025

  7. Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) results Phase 0: starts from 2013 Phase 1: starts from 2015 Phase 2: starts from 2020 Phase 3: starts from 2025 Laiva 2025

  8. Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and Sulphur Oxides (SOx) emission results • All main and auxiliary engines pass Tier III with LNG • With LPG and ethanol, the passing limits are Tier II • HFO and MGO pass Tier I • Biodiesel can only pass Tier I with slow steaming • All the studied fuel contain very low sulphur than HFO and MGO, they all can pass SECA 2015 regulation Source: IMO MARPOL annex VI reg. 13 Laiva 2025

  9. Air emission assessment model results • Does not show much variations between Ice Class IA Super and Ice Class IA • Results are better in slow steaming case • LNG and then LPG give best results Laiva 2025

  10. Net present value (NPV) estimation: variables • Up to 2025, biodiesel as main fuel would be the most expensive • After 2025, heavy fuel oil (HFO) as main fuel would be the most expensive • Investments cost other than machinery costs have kept constant for both cases Laiva 2025

  11. Net present value (NPV) estimation: Annual fuel cost • About two third cost with 11 knots speed than 14 knots • Ethanol is much cheaper but its consumption is high for same power output • As a result, cost with ethanol is similar with LNG and LPG Laiva 2025

  12. Net present value (NPV) estimation • Slow steaming offers less NPV value for the ship for non-conventional fuels • Change in annual income with LNG/LPG for DWT/gross volume loss from 305 cubic meters net volume (119 ton) fuel tanks • In case with HFO and MGO, slow steaming provides better NPV because of their high fuel price in the future Laiva 2025

  13. Conclusions • LNG would be the best fuel option considering air emission properties and cost analysis • Small difference in results in case of Ice Class IA • Much better results on air emission properties in case of slow steaming • Slow steaming must be decided based on cargo flow in the market • Whole lifecycle CO2 emission analysis needed for biodiesel Laiva 2025

  14. Future Challenges • Cost reduction from less air emissions: Mainly on reduction of NOx and SOx emission • Port of Stockholm: up to 23% • Port of Mariehamn: up to 24% • Port of Rotterdam: up to 10% • CO2 trade: the EU scheme • The European Union Emission Trading Scheme: Cap and Trade Principal • 31 countries involved; 1,000 factories, power stations, and other installations with a net heat excess of 20 MW as of Jan 2013 • Shipping not included (near future?) Laiva 2025

  15. Thank you Laiva 2025

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