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Ozone production and its sensitivity to emissions

Ozone production and its sensitivity to emissions. An overview of the work conducted at LISA. Isabelle Coll and Fanny Lasry. Analysis of the factors influencing O 3 production Isabelle Coll, Fanny Lasry (LISA). Constitution of an optimized model configuration through

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Ozone production and its sensitivity to emissions

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  1. Ozone production and its sensitivity to emissions An overview of the work conducted at LISA Isabelle Coll and Fanny Lasry

  2. Analysis of the factors influencing O3 productionIsabelle Coll, Fanny Lasry (LISA) • Constitution of an optimized model configuration through • The simulation of episodes with various chemical and dynamical inputs • The generation of validation indices of model-measurement comparison • A detailed analysis of the simulation results • The observation of ozone formation on the ESCOMPTE domain trough • The identification of the location of destruction and production areas • The simulation of specific dynamical periods : which effect on ozone formation ? • Following ozone production along the VOC decomposition pathways (prospective : to be conducted) • Where and when do VOC species and families produce ozone? • Which VOCs are most involved in fast ozone production rates? in ozone peaks? • Which VOCs most participate in regional ozone export? • Which link with ozone control policies? Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

  3. At ground level on ESCOMPTE IOPs Ozone production rates up to 45ppbv/h Identification of photochemically active air masses and inert ozone plumes Possible to identify geographical/quantitative trends in the ozone – ozone formation relationship ? Large variability of the PO3 plume shape, extent and intensity from one day to another => “statistical analysis” from one period to another => effect of dynamics or effect of emissions ? < 07/08 12/08 Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

  4. Identification of ozone chemical regimes • Greater consistency • Problem of the intermediate zone VOC limited NOx limited Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

  5. … O3 ? SPECIES + OH PRODUCTS ALKANES C3H8 BENZENE Following PO3 along VOC degradation • Idea : to bring information on the participation of each VOC species/family to ozone production by marking primary and secondary species evolution • Tracers of VOC degradation => information on • Number of VOC molecules degraded at each location • Transport and degradation of secondary species The results expected from these studies should bring a better understanding of the development of regional ozone episodes in relation with precursor emissions. Statistic analysis of their participation in high PO3 Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

  6. Simulation of scenarios of emission reduction Isabelle Coll, Fanny Lasry (LISA), S. Fayet (AIRMARAIX)J.L. Ponche (LPCA), S. Cautenet, J. Arteta (LaMP), R. Vautard (LMD) • The project PRIMEQUAL 2 – PREDIT Scenarios • influence of realistic strategies and arbitrary scenarios of reduction of the emissions, over various durations, in order to constitute a tool for the evaluation of environmental policies • questions are centered around the combination of actions to be conducted in order to respect current and future european ozone thresholds • How to avoid ozone pollution peaks ? • Which realistic emission modifications can be proposed to reduce ozone background pollution ? Consequence of the new European legislation Local decisions to reduce air pollution Traffic modulations Evolutions of the road network Emergency actions Modifications pf NMVOC emission specifications Réduction of punctual NOx emissions Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

  7. The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project CHIMERE contribution • Scientific objectives • To establish a link between ozone and its chemical precusors • in order to identify and quantify the chemical factors most involved in the development of photochemical pollution • What are the responses of ozone to the emissions of its precursors (NOx, the globallity of the VOCs, each VOC individually)? How to quantify it? • Is there a variability of the ozone responses to emissions according to the type of meteorological situation? How to determine it? • Which category(ies) of emitter(s) do(es) mostly participate in ozone production? • To establish a map of these relationships • this will allow the geographical analysis of the efficiency of emission reduction scenarios • To quantify the impact of ozone control policies on several time scales • What is the efficiency of the legislations for the year 2010? On ozone episodes / long term efficiency ? • Impacy on ozone peaks, 8h-mean ozone concentrations, background pollution Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

  8. Theoretical scenarios Realistic scenarios Definition:Simulations with reductions of the emissions of ozone precursors (VOCs, NOx, combined reductions, and reductions on each VOC) Objectives: Analysis of the ozone-precursors relation on the site Evaluation of the pertinence of the realistic scenarios Results:Sensitivity to the main categories of emitter Ozone sensitivity to emissions of its precursors Definition:Simulations with emissions projected for the year 2010 Objectives:Qualification of the efficiency of measures engaged for the year 2010 Results:evaluation of the impacts on ozone concentrations The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project CHIMERE strategy Simulations conducted on ~30 days on the ESCOMPTE domain representative of various and contrasted pollution events - IOP2, 3, 4 and 1-16 august 2003 Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

  9. NOxVOC_40 O3 increase VOC_40 NOx_40 Necessary to combine efforts on NOx and VOCs Maxima of ozone Significative impacts expected - 20 to - 40µg/m3 O3 decrease Difference with the reference • Precursors to play on ? • Expected effects ?

  10. O3 increase Difference with the reference TOT_40 GSP_40 TRAFIC_40 O3 decrease • Location of the impacts of anthropogenic activities

  11. No effect on exceedance Increase of ozone : Threshold exceedance No more threshold exceedance • Effect of ozone threshold exceedances : Road traffic and industrial emission = - 40% Ozone max 10/08/03 Ozone max 12/08/03

  12. Ozone maximum Situation 2010 Noxcov_40 • Emission scenarios : projection to year 2010 • Regulation seems to be efficient • Necessary to test it over a long period • First guess : persistence of measures over several days Anyway => necessary to add supplementary measures

  13. The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project Expected results • Spatial analysis of VOC influence • Geographical scale of impact of emission reduction • Influence on the redistribution of urban and regional ozone maxima and means • Study of the evolution of pollutants in the urban and industrial plumes • Evaluation and proposal of efficient emission reduction policies • Study of the influence of emission reductions on background pollution (long term study) – Statistical evaluation of the impact of new regulations on air quality Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

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