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Minnesota’s Labor Markets: What’s in Store?

Minnesota’s Labor Markets: What’s in Store?. Steve Hine Research Director Labor Market Information Office MN DEED November 13, 2008. Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi. In the short term, a slowing economy …. Minnesota began to slow before the nation

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Minnesota’s Labor Markets: What’s in Store?

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  1. Minnesota’s Labor Markets:What’s in Store? Steve Hine Research Director Labor Market Information Office MN DEED November 13, 2008 Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  2. In the short term, a slowing economy … • Minnesota began to slow before the nation • Weakness has been across all sectors • Our low unemployment advantage has diminished or disappeared • Forecasts are of further weakness over the next couple years • Labor market slack may reach historic highs Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  3. 47,000 job gap 4 years Employment since the last recession Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  4. 500,000 job gap Compare that to the 1990s Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  5. 2.3% 0.4% Over-the-year growth rates are lower … Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  6. About 60,000 jobs in MN … and forecasted to go even lower Source: Global Insight US Economic Outlook, November 2008 Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  7. Annual Job Growth – Past, Present and Future Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  8. Job Declines = Rising Unemployment Rates 8.3% Source: Global Insight US Economic Outlook, November 2008 Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  9. 244,000 …And More Unemployed Seeking Work Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  10. 30,691 29,073 More People Filing for Unemployment Benefits … 16,721 Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  11. 40% 30% … and receiving and exhausting benefits Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  12. The short run bottom line? • If current forecasts are accurate, Minnesota will: • Lose about 60,000 jobs between the end of 2007 and the end of 2009 • Add an additional 70,000 unemployed persons to the current 175,000 • Reach all-time highs in the number unemployed and UI claimants, recipients and exhaustees Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  13. We face different challenges in the long term • Significant slowing in our labor force growth • A much older workforce • A more ethnically diverse workforce • Severe labor shortages rather than surpluses • New challenges in matching worker skills and job requirements Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  14. 226,000 Workers 707,000 Workers Growth in labor force will slow … Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  15. … and it could be worse if participation doesn’t improve Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  16. What does it mean? • Between 2005 and 2010, MN is averaging about 30,000 new workers per year. • This will slow to 23,000 between 2010 and 2015, 14,000 between 2015 and 2020, and 3,000 per year between 2020 and 2025. • Our economy will grow at one-tenth its current rate in 15 years, and won’t pick up much for at least ten years afterward! Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  17. Growing older workers, shrinking younger ones Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  18. Change in age cohorts over next 20 years Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  19. Responding to an older workforce • Almost all labor force growth will be in the older cohort • One in three of the workforce of 2035 are already of working age today • The P-16 “pipeline” of skilled workers will shrink dramatically • “Re-skilling” existing workers will become more crucial Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  20. Where will these workers work?Industry projections 2006 to 2016 Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  21. Over 3 new jobs in 10 will be in Health Care Labor Market Information Office www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

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