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Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

This technique uses objectively chosen analog years to forecast future seasons based on historical data and climate indices. It automates the process of comparing previous years to the current year and finding consensus analog years. The forecast includes temperature and precipitation predictions.

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Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

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  1. Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

  2. Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years • The Technique • 2012-13 Verification • Analogs for Upcoming Winter • The Forecast

  3. Analog Seasonal Forecasting • Look at this year so far…

  4. Analog Seasonal Forecasting • Look at this year so far… • Look for past years that are similar to this year …

  5. Analog Seasonal Forecasting • Look at this year so far… • Look for past years that are similar to this year … • Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.

  6. Analog Seasonal Forecasting • Look at this year so far… • Look for past years that are similar to this year … • Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.

  7. Climate Indices • NOI (Northern Oscillation Index) • AO (Arctic Oscillation) • AAO • TNI • Atlantic Tripole SST EOF • AMO • AMM (Atlantic Meridional Mode) • ACE (Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Intensities) • Solar Cycle (Flux) • Monthly Hurricane Total • MDR Hurricanes SST Anomaly • MDR - Tropics SST Anomaly • Central India Monsoon Precipitation • Sahel Rainfall • Brazil Rainfall • SW USA Monsoon • Global Mean Temperature • ESPI • Globally integrated angular momentum PNA (Pacific North American Index) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) Jones NAO EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) TNH ONI NTA (North Tropical Atlantic Index) CAR (Caribbean Index) MEI BEST Nino 3 Nino 1+2 Nino 3+4 Nino 4 Pacific Warm Pool Tropical Pacific SST EOF TNA TSA WHWP WP (West Pacific Index) QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode) NP (North Pacific Index)

  8. Not just the index… But sensible weather… IE Warm/Cool… Wet/Dry

  9. Automate the Process • Compare each previous year to this year… • Compute a “Goodness of Fit” number… • Sort “Goodness of Fit”… • Print/Save results… • Do this for multiple indices… • Find “Consensus” analog years

  10. Last Year’s

  11. 2012/13 Forecast Summary Forecast: Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Near Near Above Near NearNear Temp: Below Above Below Near Above Near Precip:

  12. 2012/13 Forecast Summary Forecast: Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Near Near Above Near NearNear Temp: Below Above Below Near Above Near Precip: Observed: Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Near Below Near Above Near Above Temp: Above Below BelowBelow Near Above Precip:

  13. 2012/13 Forecast Summary Forecast: Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley P P Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Near Near Above Near NearNear P Temp: Below Above Below Near Above Near Precip: Observed: Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Near Below Near Above Near Above Temp: Above Below BelowBelow Near Above Precip:

  14. 2012/13 Verification • 3 “Hits” • 6 One-category errors • 3 Two-category errors

  15. On to Next Winter…

  16. On to Next Winter…

  17. On to Next Winter…

  18. Last Year’s Indices CPC SOI, MEI, ONI, BOM SOI, Nino 3.4 Anom, Nino 3 Temps, Nino 4 Temps, PNA, PDO, NAO, AO, WP, and the QBO.

  19. This Year’s Indices CPC SOI MEI ONI PDO

  20. Choosing Analogs Art or Science? Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09

  21. Choosing Analogs Art or Science? Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06

  22. Choosing Analogs Art or Science? Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06 George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08

  23. Choosing Analogs Art or Science? Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06 George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08 Pete Parsons: 1967/68 1980/81 2006/07

  24. Choosing Analogs Art or Science? Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06 George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08 Pete Parsons: 1967/68 1980/81 2006/07 Jim Little: 1961/62 2007/08 1967/68 1996/97 1964/65 2001/02

  25. Choosing Analogs Art or Science? 1981/82 1985/86 1985/86 1988/89 1990/91 1996/97 1996/97 2001/02 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2007/08 2008/09 1959/60 1961/62 1962/63 1964/65 1967/68 1967/68 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1979/80 1980/81

  26. Composites November…

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