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2013/14 Crop Market Outlook

Explore the latest projections for US corn and soybean supply and use, crop ratings, world production, livestock margins, meat prices, export trends, ethanol grind, and futures prices. Gain insights on acreage shifts and supply/demand concerns for 2013 and beyond.

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2013/14 Crop Market Outlook

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  1. 2013/14 Crop Market Outlook Northeast R&D Farm Fall Field Day Nashua, Iowa Aug. 28, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Corn Crop Rating

  5. Objective Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

  6. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  7. Soybean Crop Rating

  8. Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  9. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  10. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  11. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  12. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  13. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  14. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  15. Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  16. Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  17. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  18. Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  19. Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  20. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  21. Ethanol Stocks

  22. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

  23. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

  24. Current Corn Futures 4.77 4.68 4.56 Source: CME Group, 8/27/2013

  25. Current Soybean Futures 12.77 11.42 10.82 Source: CME Group, 8/27/2013

  26. New Crop Prices

  27. Corn Prices vs. Costs

  28. Soy Prices vs. Costs

  29. 3 Month Outlook - Temps

  30. Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

  31. Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

  32. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Can the new crop beat the summer heat? It had been so far, so good • Then can it beat the freeze? • New crop ratings are decent, Eastern vs. Western Corn Belt • Corn demand rebounding? • Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?

  33. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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