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Near-real time monitoring of the upper ocean from altimetry for tropical cyclone studies

This study investigates the use of detailed upper ocean thermal structure to identify regions of high thermal energy that can contribute to the intensification of tropical cyclones. It includes estimates of Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential using altimetry data, as well as comparisons with actual observations. The findings have implications for predicting cyclone intensity.

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Near-real time monitoring of the upper ocean from altimetry for tropical cyclone studies

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  1. Near-real time monitoring of the upper ocean from altimetry for tropical cyclone studies Gustavo Jorge Goni and Mark DeMaria* Gustavo Goni is at sea, Peter Black is making the presentation United States Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Miami, Florida, USA. *NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO, USA **CIMAS, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA Gustavo.Goni@noaa.gov www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data CBALST Workshop Miami, Florida, USA, April, 2005

  2. From SDSU web page Regions of tropical cyclones

  3. Wang, 2004 Hurricanes in the North Atlantic

  4. Hurricane Opal, 1995

  5. Courtesy of NOAA/NHC Track and intensity forecast

  6. Why not just SST’s ? Hurricane Opal, 1995

  7. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Objective Investigate if a detailed description of the upper ocean thermal structure can be used to identify regions of very high thermal energy that, in turn, could contribute to the (sudden) intensification of tropical cyclones.

  8. Estimates of Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Synthetic temperature profile Reduced gravity approximation model in combination with SST and historical hydrography www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data

  9. Altimetry: groundtracks, spatial coverage Blended alongtrack data of JASON-1, GFO, ENVISAT

  10. Estimates of Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (September 20, 2004)

  11. Comparison with actual observations

  12. AOML-TCHP fields in SHIPS RESEARCH MODE: Altimeter-derived TCHP as one of the 16 intensity predictors of tropical cyclone intensification • Weekly SHA and SST fields • 1992 – 2003 • Tropical Atlantic and E.Pacific • Daily SHA and SST fields • 1992 – present • Tropical Atlantic and E.Pacific

  13. Hurricane Ivan: TCHP* fields in SHIPS with TCHP without TCHP Frances Ivan Altimeter-derived TCHP as one of the 16 intensity predictors during Ivan * TCHP fields generated at NOAA/NHC

  14. Sea surface temperature (Frances & Ivan, 2004) ΔSST (Frances) ~ -1 to -8C ΔSST (Ivan) ~ -1 to -5C

  15. Depth of the 26C isotherm (Frances & Ivan, 2004) ΔD26 (Frances) ~ -10 to -70m ΔD26 (Ivan) ~ 0 to -70m

  16. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (Frances & Ivan, 2004) ΔTCHP (Frances) ~ -10 to -80kJ/cm2 ΔTCHP (Ivan) ~ 0 to -80kJ/cm2

  17. Global estimates of Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data

  18. Global fields of TCHP September 20, 2204

  19. Typhoon Nida (2004) and TCHP Taiwan Philippines Intensification

  20. Current work Daily TCHP fields Continue comparison and validation Improve access of data

  21. Immediate Future Work As part of NASA transfer to NOAA from science to operations, we will do the following work this year: Receive TCHP fields from NRL (computed using MODAS). Evaluate NOAA/AOML and NRL fields using real-time TCHP estimates from XBT, profiling floats, moorings. Provide NOAA/NESDIS with the best fields to incorporate into SHIPS and JTWC’s STIPS.

  22. END Email: Gustavo.Goni@noaa.gov www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data

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