Compilation of International Trade-in- Services Statistics in Spain: ITRS vs. Enterprise Survey

1. Compilation of International Trade-in- Services Statistics in Spain: ITRS vs. Enterprise Survey José A. Isanta Head of Unit (ITS Survey) e-mail: jaisanta@ine.es Business Statistics Directorate www.ine.es Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

2. Institutional set-up. General description of the BoP/ITS collection system Banco de España (BE) is responsible for compiling and disseminating BoP statistics in Spain BoP statistics are mainly based on ITRS and some direct reporting BoP item Other Servicesis currently estimated by ITRS. Future: INE’s ITS Survey?? The ITS survey was jointly designed by INE and BE in 2004-2005 as a precaution against ITRS probable expiration in the future Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

3. Institutional agreement INE-BE to estimate BoP-Other Services with a survey -Gentlemen’s agreement to be formalised in near future when survey reliability is verified -The survey is included in the National Statistical Plan and is fully financed by INE -INE sends survey’s micro and macro data to BE to be compared to those obtained by ITRS -Survey results (levels) are not disseminated by INE, only indices and yearly variation rates Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

4. INE is responsible for, - Building & maintaining business registers - Design, programming & printing all questionnaires - Sampling design - Fieldwork organisation - Training staff - Edition and imputation procs. - Grossing-up - Final Tabulations - Methods, studies and analysis (eg: response comparison, geographic breakdown) BE is responsible for, - Design questionnaires with INE - Sending quarterly ITRS reporters/figures on foreign receipts & payments (Other Services) to INE - Design the Survey’s Collection and Methods Manual with INE - Participate in training courses to INE’s fieldwork statisticians - Methods, studies and analysis (eg: microdata comparison) INE-BE responsibilities for the survey Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

5. The Survey Aim Value of imports and exports of services by residents of Spain vis-à-vis non- residents.Travel and transactions through commercial presence are outside the scope of the survey Scope Population: Resident institutional units (enterprises or other organisations). Time scope (fequency of reporting): the calendar quarter Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

6. Sampling Design(introduction) -Lack of an administrative register or another source to play the role of a singlepopulation frame to select a representative sample. -The information of reporters on foreign receipts and payments of Other services (ITRS) is a good starting point. - Additionally, it was decided to use other populations coming from different Spanish institutions. Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

7. Institution Sub-population (SP) Source availability/ agreed availability Frames (F) Banco de España (BE) SP1: Register of reporters on foreign receipts and payments on Other services (ITRS) Monthly/ Quarterly F1: Stable units from SP1 Spanish Tax Agency (TA) SP2: Register of Large enterprises’ VAT returns Monthly/ Monthly F2.1:VAT returns on international transactions in goods or services? F2.2: VAT returns on domestic transactions Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) SP3: Central Business Register Yearly F3: SP3 – enterprises with NACE: A, B, L, P, Q - enterprises with fewer than 10 employees Sampling Design(Sub-populations SP’s and Frames F’s) Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

8. Sampling Design(Sampling procedure) -Sampling technique: A classical stratified random sampling procedure on each frame with equal probability of selection, but selecting more of the sample in those strata with a higher number of enterprises trading in services with non-residents according to BE data. -Stratification variables:principal economic activity at the 2-digit level of NACE rev.1 and enterprise size measured in number of employees (size intervals). Geographical dimension has not so far been used when stratifying Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

9. Sample size and rates: 2005 vs. 2010 Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

10. Questionnaire Filter question: Did you export or import services during the reference quarter ? Yes/No Two main tables - Services Filter Table to help respondents tick the correct service’s box Table to register import/export values and counterpart country for the services previously ticked Questionnaire formats -Paper, electronic (e-questionnaire), website and XML-web Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

11. Questionnaire (Services filter table) 51 EBOPS sub-items Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

12. Questionnaire (exports/imports table) Exchange rate: quarterly average or Monthly average, last day of the quarter, last day of the month, transaction day, others Literal description of the ITS transaction according to the respondent Counterpart country Monetary value in € for each transaction Service code according to previous Table:’ Filter table’ Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

13. Other Services’ Exports (ITRS vs. Survey) Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

14. Other Services’ Imports (ITRS vs. Survey) Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

15. BoP-Other Services (ITRS) vs. ITS (Survey)(Comparison by type of service) Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

16. ITRS strengths: - Census of foreign receipts and payments on services transactions over threshold (50,000 EUR) ITRS weaknesses: - Threshold increases - EC and ECB Regulations on statistics and finance - Integration of bank settlements and netting/clearing settlements -Cash accounting principle Survey strengths: -Flexibility -Accrual accounting principle -Gross values -Improves services classification Survey weaknesses: - Sampling error - Incomplete reports -Manuals’ definitions may not be directly transferred to questionnaires Strengths and weaknesses of the ITS collection systems Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

17. Survey Response Rates Conclusion: More than 50% of surveyed units do not report exports or imports in the questionnaire. Do all null reporters cheat or don’t they really trade services at international level ? Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

18. Matching units’ response rates Conclusion: More than 20% of total matching units are null reporters under suspicion. This rate for stable units reaches 18% (very high !!) Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

19. BoP-Other Services (ITRS) vs. ITS (Survey)(Matching units analysis) Conclusions: Due to ‘cheats’ or ‘lack of understanding’ the survey supposedly misses more than 8% of total BoP-Other services exports and imports. In the case of stable units it reaches 10% Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

20. BoP-Other Services (ITRS) vs. ITS (Survey)(Non-matching units analysis) Conclusions: 1.Survey should include more ITRS reporters in the sample and 2. ITRS is missing some reporters captured randomly by the survey Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

21. Economic crisis and threshold raise effects on ITRS Note: Reporting threshold up to 50,000 EUR came into effect in 2008 (Spain). In 2007, around 60% of reporters reported transaction values below 50,000 EUR Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

22. High degree of concentration Conclusion: On average, more than 3000 reporters were necessary in 1999-2002 to cover 80% of both exports and imports of services. In 2009 only 1245 reporters. Problem: Reporters volatility (10% decrease of receipts + payments between 2008 and 2009) Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

23. What’s next…. - Regulation EC 924/2009 related to border payments in the Community and SEPA (ITRS expiration by law ??). -Joint decision BE-INE about the survey’s future: * Sampling re-design, incorporating most of ITRS reporters into the sample? * Due to the high degree of concentration just have an Annual ITS Survey and a Quarterly ITS Survey able to capture 80% of total exports and imports (UK model). *Study: Directives 2008/8/CE and 2008/9/CE related to the place of services provision and VAT returns -Adoption of NACE 2009, 6BPM, MSITS and EBOPS 2010. - Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?

24. Thank you for your attentionFor further contact:jaisanta@ine.es Do we have the right numbers? No, we probably don’t, but we are getting closer and closer Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ?