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Bryn Davidson DRAFT June 23, 2006

‘Scenario Coaster’ Coming to terms with the mainstream peaking scenarios. ... an addendum to ‘Our Future(s)’ . Bryn Davidson DRAFT June 23, 2006. 4 Energy Scenarios. Proactive Response Government, Society, Technology & Markets. “Lean Economy” *. “Techno-Markets”.

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Bryn Davidson DRAFT June 23, 2006

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  1. ‘Scenario Coaster’ Coming to terms with the mainstream peaking scenarios....an addendum to ‘Our Future(s)’ Bryn DavidsonDRAFT June 23, 2006

  2. 4 Energy Scenarios Proactive ResponseGovernment, Society, Technology & Markets “Lean Economy” * “Techno-Markets” aka “Powerdown”aka “Energy Descent” aka “Sustainable Development”aka “Sci-Fi Utopia” RapidDepletionand/or early peaking SlowDepletionand/or later peaking “Collapse” “Burnout” aka “Mad Max”aka “Easter Island” aka “Climate Chaos”aka “Business as Usual” Reactive ResponseMarkets, Technology, Society & Government * per David Fleming

  3. Global Oil Production - Peaking Scenarios CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere 2005 ASPO 2005 +20 yr. 2006 (likely head-start required to fully mitigate peaking*) * per the ‘Hirsch Report’ Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutterwww/trendlines.ca

  4. Global Oil Production ....... Which scenario is preferable? Which is scariest? 1970 2006

  5. Global Oil Production – A Scary Peaking Scenario - ASPO Compiled by Freddy Hutterwww/trendlines.ca Scary: Fossil fuel production pleateaus, then drops off unexpectedly. Very few countries have plans in place to deal with the massive economic turbulence... ....‘Collapse’. ...or if you cooperate locally....‘Lean Economy’ CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere2005 ASPO 2005 @#$%! where’d that come from?! +20 yr. 2006 Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutterwww/trendlines.ca

  6. Global Oil Production – TheScariestPeaking Scenario - CERA CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere2005 ASPO 2005 +20 yr. 2006 Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutterwww/trendlines.ca

  7. Global Oil Production – TheScariestPeaking Scenario - CERA Scary – Part 1: Fossil fuel production ramps up faster than ‘clean-fossil’ technologies that sequester emissions – leading to accelerated global warming, pollution, sprawl, and oil dependence. ...‘Burnout’ CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere2005 ASPO 2005 +20 yr. 2006 Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutterwww/trendlines.ca

  8. Global Oil Production – The ScariestPeaking Scenario - CERA Scary – Part 2: Fossil fuel production plateaus, then drops off a cliff... New technologies can’t come close to making up the difference... ....‘Collapse’ CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere2005 ASPO 2005 @#$%! +20 yr. 2006 Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutterwww/trendlines.ca

  9. Global Oil Production – The ScariestPeaking Scenario - CERA ‘Burnout’ + ‘Collapse’ = (Probably not a preferred future) CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere2005 ASPO 2005 @#$%! +20 yr. 2006 Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutterwww/trendlines.ca

  10. Global Oil Production – SmoothestPeaking Scenario - Laherrere Compiled by Freddy Hutterwww/trendlines.ca Not too scary: Oil and gas peak around 2012, but we’ve had a few years to get ready. We encounter some shortages, but the decline of oil and gas is slow enough that some of the ‘clean fuels’ actually make a bit of a difference. ....‘Techno-Markets’.. if the mainstream politicians got the incentives right back in ’06. CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere 2005 ASPO 2005 ! ....‘Lean Economy’... if you had to go-it-alone with just your local community. +20 yr. 2006 Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutterwww/trendlines.ca

  11. Global Oil Production – Energy Transition Strategies 1. Can you generate a broad consensus around the fact that (a) and (c) are possible, but probably not desirable. 2. If so, then plan your mainstream policies around a consensuspath* ...probably something similar to (b)?. 3. Develop contingency plans for dealing with either (a) or (c). 4.Start. Now. (a) CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere 2005 ASPO 2005 (b) (c) * Whether or not you think this is the most probable.. it needs to be the one we can agree on as being preferable – peakniks, economists, politicians, and everyone in between. +20 yr. 2006 Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutterwww/trendlines.ca

  12. ‘Scenario Coaster’ an addendum to ‘Our Future(s)’ These scenarios are a work-in-progress. Thanks to everyone who has commented thus far... Bryn Davidson604.728.0606bryn@dynamiccities.org Dynamic Cities Projectwww.dynamiccities.org Rao/D Cityworkswww.rao-d.com

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