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Maurizio Sajeva Firenze, dicembre 2009

PACT Second plenary technical workshop Roma, ISIS, 14 December 2009 Task 4.2. "Risks and governance in the transition process towards post carbon societies “ Maurizio Sajeva. Maurizio Sajeva Firenze, dicembre 2009. The ‘Pathways for Carbon Transition’ (PACT ) project.

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Maurizio Sajeva Firenze, dicembre 2009

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  1. PACT Second plenary technical workshop Roma, ISIS, 14 December 2009 Task 4.2. "Risks and governance in the transition process towards post carbon societies “ Maurizio Sajeva Maurizio Sajeva Firenze, dicembre 2009 Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  2. The ‘Pathways for Carbon Transition’ (PACT ) project • FP7 Cooperation Work Programme: Theme 8 – Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities – SSH • moving to a post-carbon society: entire economic systems based on carbon free energy infrastructures • scenario of high complexity and criticality • changes are dependent on socio-economic and cultural patterns of the society • they affect the society, the market and the productive systems Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  3. The PACT project • The transition and development of energy systems and related infrastructures towards a post-carbon society for 2050 • Stakeholders’ assessment: perception of changes and future impacts (actors’ behaviour and risk acceptability) • Socio-economic analysis: evaluation of economic operators’ expectations (perceived risks and opportunities) for the adoption of alternative urban models and road transport paradigms Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  4. The PACT project: WP 4.2. • The transition and development of energy systems and related infrastructures towards a post-carbon society for 2050 • Risk governance theorisation for a broader scenarios perspective and the determination of roles and responsibilities. • Stakeholders’ assessment: perception of changes and future impacts (actors’ behaviour and risk acceptability) • Socio-economic analysis: evaluation of economic operators’ expectations (perceived risks and opportunities) Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  5. Macroeconomic perspective Scenario 1 x (x1;.. Xn) Integrated perspective: Governance of complex systems Scenario 2 y (y1;.. Yn) Socio-economic perspective Scenario 3 z (z1; .. Zn) Business perspective (management) Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  6. COMPLEX SYSTEM (criticality of risk scenarios, risk extended to all society, uncertainty) JOINT INTEGRATED RISK GOVERNANCE CULTURAL BACKGROUNDS, BELIEFS (Cultural Theory of risk, plurality of risk perceptions) RISK MANAGEMENT SOCIETY AND STAKEHOLDERS (stakeholder theory) The theoretical framework Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  7. Globalisation of markets and complexity • Risk management in contexts characterised by particular complexity • Technological development • Market development: critical complex systems run by private businesses • Interconnection of sub-systems (businesses) • Complexity of relations between parts of a same system • Criticality for the whole society and economic development • Uncertainty and plurality of perspectives: uncertainty of scientific knowledge • Stakeholders’ values and risk perceptions might be in dispute, while decision to be taken urgent: preferred risk management policies might differ substantially • The socio-economic aspects related to operators’ expectations and propensity to invest, consumers behaviour will be concerned. Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  8. The empirical application, a risk governance model: a framework for participatory decision-making • Policy options (a different organisational scheme) • Stakeholders’ perspectives • Risk scenarios • Risk management: measures and standards (joint mandatory and individual voluntary) • Enforcement measures • Socio-economic impact assessment and accountability towards stakeholders. • Interface between science, policy and society: information and communication Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  9. Partecipatory analysis • Risk governance theorisation • Identification of options and technological /political choices • Qualitative evaluation of perspectives of risk and opportunites: our focus group, intervews • Stakeholders’ assessment (on-line questionnaire) • Definition of scenarios through the quantification of choices: on-linequestionnaire on the desirability and feasibility of strategic policies and technological choices • Classification of choices, cluster analysis) and elaboration of results. Socio-economic analysis of future transition scenarios and analysis of energy development pathways Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  10. Main interview’s questions • How will new technological energy systems be phased in by 2050? What experience will producers and consumers have with the introduction of new energy systems? • What are the risks and benefits associated with implementation of new energy technologies on stakeholders? • What priority energy infrastructure (networks) needs to be built to achieve an effective transition towards carbon neutral energy systems? • What are the risks and benefits associated with the building of new infrastructure on stakeholders? • Which elements in current and future regulatory and legislative requirements are effective in providing stability and predictability during the transition towards carbon neutral systems? Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  11. Interpretation of data and socio-economic analysis of future transition scenarios:cost-effectiveness analysis of energy development pathways towards a post-carbon society The WP 4.2. empirical framework Data collection: elicit responses from participants about the evolution of the energy and transport industry. This includes technical and infrastructure, regulatory, legislative and societal issues. Quantitative evaluation: • On-line questionnaire • Clustering for the classification of choices • Elaboration of results Qualitative evaluation • Focus groups • Questionnaires • Direct interviews • Stakeholders’ assessment Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  12. Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  13. Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  14. Which stakeholder group do you belong to? Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  15. What is your background area of expertise? Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  16. Which is you appreciative value system? Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  17. What are your overarching theories? Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  18. What is you risk perspective? Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  19. What is your attitude in relation to future development and problem-solving? Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  20. What kind of regulatory, market and policy structure do you support for guaranteeing security and security of energy supply, economic development, environmental and social sustainability, health protection and general well-being? Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  21. Challenges in the practical application How to face political / market power and represent all concerned stakeholders (political aspect) How to involve stakeholders: private systems operators do not want others to push their buttons. How to empower effective public-private partnership How to set enforcement and sanction systems Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  22. MANY ENERGY RELATED INITIATIVES LAUNCHED at EU level • CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES • COMPLEX SYSTEMS • INTERCONNECTED STRUCTURES NEED OF BETTER UNDERSTANDING THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS • SECURITY & SOCIO ECONOMIC ISSUES: • National defence • Economic development • Political and economic stability • Competitiveness • Innovation and technology • Knowledge & human resources • Systems reliability • Environmental issues • Business & Market PLURALITY OF PERSPECTIVES: understanding socio-economic implications of security by JOINT INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT EnergyGovernance network: a multi-perspective approach by a multi-disciplinary and multi-cultural scientific community Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

  23. Main publications • Governing Risks in the European Critical Electricity Infrastructure. Masera, Marcelo; Wijnia, Ype; de Vries, Laurens; Kuenzi, Caroline; Sajeva, Maurizio; Weijnen, Margot. (2006). In A.V. Gheorge, M. Masera, M. Weijnen, and L. de Vries (Eds.), Critical Infrastructures at Risk — Securing the European Electric Power System, 109–138. Dordrecht (The Netherlands): Springer. ISBN 1-4020-4306-6 • A strategic approach to risk governance of critical infrastructures. Sajeva, Maurizio; Masera, Marcelo. (2006). International Journal of Critical Infrastructures (IJCIS), 17. • Risk Governance of the Electric Power System in North America: New Strategies for Facing Technological and Economic Changes (Technical EUR Report Nº 22288 EN). Sajeva, Maurizio; Stefanini, Alberto; Masera, Marcelo. (2006). Ispra, Italy: European Commission JRC. • Risk Governance Strategies for Critical Infrastructures. Sajeva, Maurizio. (2006). Paper presented at The 3rd International Conference "European Electricity Market" EEM06 The European Electricity Market Challenge of the Unification, Warsaw (Poland) (24–26 May 2006). • Evolutionary Risk Governance Strategies for Security Assurance of European Critical Networked Infrastructures. Sajeva, Maurizio (Speaker). (2006). Presentation at 9TH AICEI CONFERENCE RISK AND INFRASTRUCTURES: AN ISSUE OF GOVERNANCE?, DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY (15–16 JUNE 2006). • Risk governance for critical complex infrastructural systems; Network Industries Quarterly, vol. 9, no 3. 2007 • Risk governance for critical complex infrastructural systems: the threat of climate change risk (http://www.carbon-business.com/carbon-business/issue-3-spring-2008) Risk and Governance in the transition process towards a post carbon society

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