Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

1. Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 22 November 2010 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline • Highlights • ENSO Current Status • MJO Current Status • Monsoons Current Status • Southern Hemisphere Circulation • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast • Forecast Verification

3. Highlights Australia: Heavy rainfall fell across eastern Queensland, with moderate amounts accumulating across New South Wales. The GFS forecasts continued unsettled weather across eastern Australia, with above average accumulations across the interior southeast. Southern Africa:Scattered showers fell across southern Africa during the previous week. The GFS forecasts an increase in rainfall coverage and intensity during the upcoming week. South America: Scattered showers and thunderstorms fell across Brazil’s central core soybean farmlands, while drier weather persisted in Rio Grande do Sul. Across Argentina, below-average rainfall was observed along and east of the Parana River. The GFS forecasts an increase in precipitation coverage across central and eastern Brazil, while below average rainfall persists in southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina.

4. ENSO Current Status • General Summary: • La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific. • Negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean. • La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011. During the last 4-weeks (24 Oct – 20 Nov 2010), SSTs were at least 1.0°C below average between 165°E and the South American coast, with departures more than 2.0°C below average in small areas east of the International Date Line. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation. • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength • Line colors distinguish different months RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean MJO Current Status During the previous week, the MJO signal became incoherent. The GEFS ensemble consensus forecasts a continued incoherent MJO signal in the tropics. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

6. Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South America Southern Africa Australia Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR With the rainy season started across southern Africa, a sluggish start to the rains spurned small to moderate deficits across much of South Africa and Mozambique. Generally below average precipitation was observed across South America, particularly in the central Amazon basin, where the rainy season signal was weak. Three-month precipitation across northeastern Brazil and central Argentina remained near to above-average. Near- to above-average rainfall was observed across most of Australia during the previous 90 days. A small area of below-average rainfall was observed in Western Australia’s primary wheat growing region. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

7. 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation C A A A Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. • During 14 – 20 Nov 2010, an anomalous upper-level cyclonic circulation feature persisted just off of Brazil’s southeastern coastline.

8. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations. • During 7 – 13 Nov, an area of strong anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed across northeastern Australia, and was associated with heavy rainfall.

9. Australia • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, heavy rainfall (locally >130mm along the coast) fell across the eastern half of Queensland. Widespread light to moderate rainfall continued across wheat, cotton, and sorghum croplands of New South Wales, while dry weather overspread Australia’s southern tier.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the previous 15 days, above average rainfall fell across the eastern third of Australia, with the heaviest amounts observed across east central Queensland.

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the previous 30 days, near to above average rainfall was observed across central and eastern Australia.

13. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • 30-day rainfall time series across the Australian wheat belt depict the substantial moisture boost across southern Queensland, as well as the plentiful moisture observed across southern Australia despite the recent dryness.

14. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly • Near to below average temperatures across central and eastern Australia contrasted with hot weather in Western Australia.

15. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 22 Nov 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 (22 – 28 Nov 2010), continued unsettled weather is expected for eastern Australia, with above average rainfall possible in interior New South Wales and eastern South Australia.

16. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 22 Nov 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 (29 Nov – 5 Dec 2010), wet weather is forecast to continue across much of Queensland and coastal New South Wales. Lighter rain is expected across the remaining croplands of eastern Australia.

17. Southern Africa • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

18. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • Scattered showers across South Africa brought near average weekly accumulations. Drier weather prevailed across Zimbabwe and Mozambique.

19. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the last 15 days, locally above-average rainfall fell across southeastern South Africa and Lesotho, with below average rainfall continuing further north.

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below average rainfall was observed in South Africa’s western corn belt and throughout Mozambique.

21. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • 30-day rainfall time series depict the below average rainfall across South Africa, with near average rainfall further north in Botswana and Zimbabwe.

22. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Near average temperatures were observed across South Africa’s maize triangle during the previous week.

23. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 22 Nov 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 (22 – 28 Nov 2010) widespread rainfall is expected across southern Africa during the upcoming week.

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 22 Nov 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 (29 Nov – 5 Dec 2010) drier weather is expected across South Africa, but heavy rainfall is possible in Zimbabwe and central Mozambique.

25. Brazil & Argentina • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • First Freeze in southern Argentina • GFS Forecast

26. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • Scattered showers and thunderstorms were observed across central and eastern Brazil during the previous week, while below-average rainfall persisted across southern Brazil, most notably western Rio Grande do Sul. • Below average rainfall continued along and east of the Parana River, with light to moderate showers falling across the interior north and central croplands as well as southern Buenos Aires. Brazil Argentina

27. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days Total Anomaly • Generally below average rainfall was observed across Brazil, with deficits increasing in coverage and intensity further south. • Widespread below average rainfall was observed across Argentina during previous two weeks, with above average rainfall limited to southern Buenos Aires. Brazil Argentina

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly • Near to above average rainfall was observed across central and northeastern Brazil, while below average rainfall persisted across southern Brazil. • Below average rainfall was observed across northern and central Argentina during the previous 30 days. Brazil Argentina

29. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • Below average 30 day accumulations in northern Argentina and southern Brazil contrasted with near to above average rainfall in central and southeastern Brazil.

30. Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Near average temperatures were observed throughout most of Brazil.

31. Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Near average temperatures were observed throughout most of Argentina.

32. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 22 Nov 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly • For Days 1-7 (22 – 28 Nov 2010), a strip of heavy rainfall is expected across central and eastern Brazil, while pockets of drier weather persist in the south. Below-average precipitation is forecast to persist across northeastern Argentina as well.

33. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 22 Nov 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly • For Days 8-14 (29 Nov – 5 Dec 2010), widespread rainfall is expected across central and eastern Brazil, with dryness continuing across Rio Grande do Sul. In Argentina, persistent below average rainfall across northern farmlands is forecast.

34. Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars USDA Crop Information