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AIM Model Presentation

AIM Model Presentation. Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi Yuzuru Matsuoka Kyoto University, Japan. Brief introduction of the AIM Projection of Global Warming Mitigation of Global Warming. Atmospheric Chemistry. meteorology. geophysics. economics. policy sciences. pedology.

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AIM Model Presentation

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  1. AIM Model Presentation Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi Yuzuru Matsuoka Kyoto University, Japan Brief introduction of the AIM Projection of Global Warming Mitigation of Global Warming Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002

  2. Atmospheric Chemistry meteorology geophysics economics policy sciences pedology paleo- climatology geochemistry ecology hydraulics Policymaking Process AIM (Asian team) IMAGE (Netherlands） GCAM （USA） Integrated Assessment Model Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002

  3. The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model • AIM is an abbreviation of Asia-Pacific Integrated Model. • It is one of Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), and a large-scale computer simulation model developed to promote the integrated assessment process in the Asia-Pacific region • Collaborated study by Japan, China, India , Korea, Thailand and Malaysia members. • The AIM project is started in July 1990, and began an international collaboration system from 1994. Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002

  4. Population model Technology Economic model Lifestyle Energy model APEIS IPCC UNEP/GEO3 Eco-Asia EMF19 National government private companies Land use model Japan team India team China team Korea team Thailand team Malaysia team Carbon cycle Atmospheric chemistry Ocean uptake Climatic change Water resource Sea level rise Human health Ecosystem Agriculture The AIM Approach Mitigation of Climate Change AIM/Trend AIM/Emission, AIM/Material GHG emissions model develop- ment apply AIM/Climate Climate change Adaptation of Climate Change AIM/Ecosystem Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002

  5. AIM/Emission AIM/Climate AIM/Emission Atmos-phere Socio-Econ. & Emission Scenario Ocean Land Surface Water Resource Land-use Crop Productivity Socio-Econ. Factors Food Demand And Supply AIM/Ecosystem Adaptation Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002

  6. Socio-Economic Scenarios Population Resource Base Lifestyle AIM/emission Regional / National Bottom-up Model GDP SO2, NOx, SPM Emission End Use Energy Efficiency Food Consumption Pattern Social Energy Efficiency Industrial Process Change Technology Change Industrial Production Exploitation Technology Resource Base Other Inputs GDP GDP Regional Air Pollution Model Population Population Energy Resource Goods & Service Demand Goods & Service Supply Energy Service Demand Energy Price Primary Energy Supply Social Energy Efficiency Change Final Energy Demand Final Energy Supply Biomass Energy Demand Goods and Service Price Energy Conversion Technology Efficiency End Use Technology Change Land Input Energy Conversion Technology Cropland End Use Technology Pasture Forest Biomass Farm Global Energy-Economic Model Other Land Global Land Equilibrium Model GHGs Emissions AIM/climate Model AIM/Emission Coupling of Top-down model and Bottom-up model Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002

  7. A1FI (A1C) A2 A1FI (A1G) A1B B2 A1T B1 CO2 Emission Scenarios Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002

  8. AIM/Climate AIM/Climate AIM/Emission Atmos-phere Socio-Econ. & Emission Scenario Ocean Land Surface Water Resource Land-use Crop Productivity Socio-Econ. Factors Food Demand And Supply AIM/Ecosystem Adaptation Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002

  9. AIM/emission Natural change convection and transport of aerosol, SO2 and NOx Balance and Chemical model of GHGs Carbon cycle model CH4 model N2O model CFCs model Climate model Radiative forcing, Energy balance Ocean model Upwelling-Diffusion ocean model Sea level rise model Ice melt Thermal expansion Global temperature change Glaciers Greenland Antarctica GCM,RegCM experiments Spatial interpolation with GCM Regional temperature change Sea level rise AIM/Climate Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 Climate model Radiative forcing, Energy balance

  10. Frequency of occurrences Temperature change (C) Temperature change between 1990 and 2100 Simulated 7 GCMs are GFDL R15a, CSIRO Mk2, HadCM3, HadCM2, ECHAM4/OPYC, CSM 1.0 and DOE PCM Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002

  11. Climate change in Asian-Pacific countries from 1990 to 2100, increase in DJF Precipitation change Temperature change Frequency of occurrence Frequency of occurrence Temperature change (℃) Precipitation change (%) Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002

  12. AIM/Ecosystem AIM/Climate AIM/Emission Atmos-phere Socio-Econ. & Emission Scenario Ocean Land Surface Water Resource Land-use Crop Productivity Socio-Econ. Factors Food Demand And Supply AIM/Ecosystem Adaptation Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002

  13. Wheat productivity change in some countries from 1990 to 2100 With CO2 fertilization Without CO2 fertilization Frequency of occurrence Frequency of occurrence Productivity change (%) Productivity change (%) Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002

  14. Costs and Benefits Atmospheric Stabilization GDP reduction relative to SRES scenarios Wheat productivity change in India from 1990 to 2100, with CO2 fertilization Frequency of occurrence GDP loss (%) Productivity change (%) Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002

  15. Some Representative results of AIM calculation • Global temperature increases in 2100 are 3.1±1.1℃, lower and upper 5 percentile temperatures are 1.6 and 5.1℃. • Climate change impacts are serious in some sectors and countries. India, wheat productivity, 34±16% and 53±20% decrease w/wo CO2 fertilization. • Some impacts are recovered by these mitigations. In the Indian case, the percentages of recovered are; • The costs of atmospheric stabilization are in GDP% loss Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002

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