Weis Decisions Index

1. Weis Decisions Index Roaring Lions Weather Associates

2. “Meteorology has made leaps and bounds.”- John VittorioMeteorological Advancement Director • Brief overview of weather over the Weis coverage area. • Progression of forecasting techniques over the past 100 years. • Examine weather forecasting skill today and where it is heading in the future.

3. Regional Annual Snowfall

4. Hurricanes

5. Major 20th Century Advancements

6. Increase in Computing Power • Nearly exponential • Greatest increase during 2000’s • Projected to keep increasing

7. Numerical Prediction Models • Need excellent data set of initial conditions. • Use super computers to solve complex equations that represent activity in the atmosphere. • “NAM”- North American Model • “GFS”- Global Forecast System • “European Model”- European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model

8. Skill in Forecasting • Forecast for 500mb or about 18,000 feet above the surface. • Spin in the atmosphere at this level is associated with high and low pressure. • Based on S-1 score that measures average percent error.

9. Steadily Improving • Tornadoes are very difficult to predict. • Weather research and more advanced. computer models have increased warning time. • Lessons learned in tornado prediction are applied to forecasts in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

10. Hurricane Sandy • Predicted with extraordinary accuracy. • Meteorologist will use Sandy as an example for future hurricanes. • In the near future, most hurricane forecast can be this accurate

11. “We know grocery.”- Christy ShieldsGrocery Industry Analyst http://www.weismarkets.com/about-weis/

12. Locations

13. Travel Times

14. Sustainability • Weis Markets, Inc. mission statement is “committed to our customers and communities to continually adopt sustainable practices to minimize our impact on the environment today for tomorrow.” • Weis Markets, Inc. is dedicated to “going green” and most of their competitors feel the same way.

15. Competitors • Ahold – Stop and Shop, Giant Carlisle, Giant Landover, and Peapod • Delhaize America, Inc. – Food Lion, Hannaford, Bottom Dollar, Harvey’s and Sweetbay.

16. Weis Markets, Inc.

17. Ahold

18. Delhaize America, Inc.

19. Labor Ratio • Weis Markets, Inc. has only 161 stores and has 108 laborers per store. • Ahold has about 756 stores and has around 108 laborers per store. • Delhaize America, Inc. has 1,549 stores and has a laborer to store number of 70.

20. “Our index is tailored for your company.”- Joshua KarahalisWeather Index Developer • Throughout the years we have seen our fair share of weather and we have always had to deal with what Mother Nature brings our way. • Great strides have been made in weather prediction and we, at the Roaring Lions Weather Associates, have taken these advancements to tailor a weather index just for you!

21. What is the Weis Decisions Index? • Our index converts meteorological data from multiple forecasts into an easy to use map. • The forecasts we use come from two advanced numerical weather prediction models known as the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasting (ECMWF). • Each boast higher skill than other numerical models and provide specific forecasts for our index. • We also consider Model Output Statistics (MOS) for a base when considering what may happen in the future.

22. What is the Weis Decisions Index? • The index will use the following parameters: • High Winds • Precipitation Rate • Snowfall Rate (Winter) • Ice Accretion (Winter) • Visibility • As you can see two parameters, snowfall rate and ice accretion, only occur in the winter and will be tailored to our winter equation.

23. Parameters and Index Equations • Meteorological winter is observed between December 1st and March 1st. • Due to the wide range of weather events observed in the Northeast around this time we expanded meteorological winter to cover between November 1st and April 1st. • Our non-winter equation excludes snowfall rate and ice accretion, which weighs wind speed, precipitation rate and visibility more.

24. High Winds • This category focuses specifically on wind gusts, which is defined as a rapid fluctuation in wind speed with a variation of ~11.5 mph or more between peaks and lulls. It is the maximum instantaneous wind speed. • Wind gusts are potentially hazardous to truckers because their big trailers are susceptible to strong winds. Trucks have been known to be pushed over several lanes and off of roadways due to intense wind gusts. • Most states heed high wind warnings and issue alerts to truck drivers. High winds can shut down highways to big rigs if the state feels lives will be endangered.

25. High Winds • The table we use to evaluate the severity of wind gusts and their accompanied numerical value is shown here:

26. Precipitation Rate • Instead of focusing on total precipitation we chose to use the rate at which the precipitation is predicted to fall. • Higher precipitation rates have the potential to flood poor drainage areas and can shut down roads that are prone to flooding. • Due to these potential hazards associated with high precipitation rates trucking, staffing and sales can be directly affected.

27. Precipitation Rate • The table below identifies multiple precipitation rates and their accompanied numerical value:

28. Snowfall Rate (Winter) • Like precipitation rate, we will only consider the rate at which the snow falls. • Trucking is not the only thing affected by high snowfall rates during the day. • Employees and customers will also feel the adverse effects of heavy snow. Since employees and customers need to travel to the store the potential for heavy delays and dangerous road conditions hinders their ability to make it to the store as long as it is snowing at a high rate.

29. Snowfall Rate (Winter) • The table below shows our estimated snowfall rates with their assigned numerical value:

30. Ice Accretion (Winter) • One of the most hazardous winter weather phenomena is ice. It is tough to see and even harder to predict, which makes it extremely dangerous for motorists. • An ice storm is the biggest threat to the distribution center and stores because of the potential for long-term power outages. • Like snowfall rates, employee and customer travel will be adversely affected due to hazardous road conditions.

31. Ice Accretion (Winter) • Listed below is the amount of ice accretion and its associated point:

32. Visibility • Reduced visibility is another hazard for motorists (truck drivers, employees and customers) and can occur via intense precipitation or fog. • High snowfall rates can reduce visibility to near white-out conditions with visibilities close to zero miles, which would force motorists to slow down and ultimately stop their vehicle. • Values associated with fog will be handled depending on the severity of fog forecasted.

33. Visibility • Below are a range of visibilities and their associated numerical value:

34. Winter Equation • This equation accounts for all events. It is shown here with categories wind (W), precipitation rate (PR), snowfall rate (SR), ice accretion (IA) and visibility (V): • WDI (winter) = [20(W) + 15(PR) + 20(SR) + 25(IA) + 20(V)] / 20. • For general purposes, we consider a snowstorm to have a snowfall rate of 3 points or higher, which would be enough snow for road crews to fall behind. Taking this into consideration, precipitation rate is assigned 2 points.

35. Non-Winter Equation • This equation covers everything except for snowfall rate and ice accretion and is shown here: • WDI (non-winter) = [35(W) + 30(PR) + 35(V)] / 20. • As you can see, there are increased weights on all three categories because they are a major factor in road delays in this period, which have a direct effect on an employee’s ability to get to work on time, a trucker’s time to ship goods and a customer’s willingness to drive under dangerous road conditions.

36. Index Updates • We will provide daily maps for days 1-7 so that Weis Markets, Inc. can make the necessary accommodations if dangerous weather is forecasted. • Each daily forecast will be updated at 0Z (7pm EST/8pm EDT) and 12Z (7am EST/8am EDT). • There will be four maps provided for each day covering the periods: • 0-6Z (7pm/8pm EST/EDT – 1am/2am EST/EDT) • 6-12Z (1am/2am EST/EDT – 7am/8am EST/EDT) • 12-18Z (7am/8am EST/EDT - 1pm/2pm EST/EDT) • 18-0Z (1pm/2pm EST/EDT – 7pm/8pm EST/EDT)

37. The Index • The points based system has gone through multiple runs with various weather situations and the table below is our best estimate at potential impacts each range of our Weis Decision Index:

41. “Increasing profit margins.”- Tyler JankoskiProject Manager and Writer • We can save Weis an estimated $5,342,319 per year in shipping, spoilage, and labor expenses. • TheTruckersReport.com estimates that it costs $180,000 per year to operate one commercial truck. • According to TTR, 39% of the expense is for diesel fuel alone, while 26% is for the driver’s salary.

42. Savings on Shipping • Shipping costs Weis about $60,499,470 per year. Using TTR’s estimate, Weis should have about 336 trucks. • 336 trucks is not reasonable, considering they have 161 stores. Thus, Weis is spending much more than the average company on shipping. • Accurate forecasts will lead to more direct routes and less miles traveled. We estimate 2% savings on fuel and salary, or $1,209,989.

43. Savings on Spoilage • Spoilage costs Weis about $20,166,490 per year. • Accurate forecasts will lead to more direct routes and a reduced risk of cargo spoilage. We estimate 2% savings on cargo spoilage, or $403,330.

44. Savings on Labor • Labor costs Weis about $372,945,000 per year. • Accurate forecasts will lead to more reliable estimates of consumer demand at each store. • An average store has 40 workers on duty at any given time. • Staff levels should be increased by 25% a day in advance of a storm. Extra stock should be shipped out 2 days in advance. During storm, staff should be cut by 75%.

45. Savings on Labor • Making smarter staffing choices will reap great benefits for Weis. With the smallest percentage of savings, we expect to help Weis save 1% of its annual labor expenses. • This accounts for 3,729,000 in savings. • Not only will this save money, but consumer happiness will be elevated with more staff during busy pre-storm “bread and milk” rushes.

46. Cost

47. Sources • NOAA Forecast Skill Image: http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/foundations/numerical_wx_pred/S1Chart06.html http://www.quora.com/Have-weather-forecasts-improved-in-accuracy-over-the-last-50-years • Washington Post Accounts of Sandy: http://www.quora.com/Have-weather-forecasts-improved-in-accuracy-over-the-last-50- years • Information on NWS Models and Supercomputers: http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/foundations/numerical_wx_pred/welcome.html#today • More information on weather models: http://www.research.noaa.gov/weather/t_modeling.html • Information on ENICAC: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ENIAC • Tornado Forecast Skill Image: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6108/734/F5.expansion.html • Chart of Increasing Computing Speed: http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2000-2009.htm • Hurricane Sandy Forecast Graphic: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/- hh_GezV5xKs/UJ6Ub4Nw4BI/AAAAAAAAOJM/C2UmCasIFvY/s1600/SandyForecast.jpg • Data on Pennsylvania Hurricanes: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Pennsylvania_hurricanes NESIS Data: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis • http://www.google.com/imgres?um=1&hl=en&safe=off&client=firefox-a&tbo=d&rls=org.mozilla:en- US:official&biw=1680&bih=946&tbm=isch&tbnid=NMOFFvP2DvlN2M:&imgrefurl=http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/foundations/numerical_wx_pred/S1Chart06.html&docid=kX4xD7oYYTt6UM&imgurl=http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/foundation s/numerical_wx_pred/S1Chart06_full.jpg&w=887&h=724&ei=1Rb4UOn- HoaS0QHI9oGQDw&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=218&vpy=630&dur=1813&hovh=203&hovw=249&tx=146&ty=136&sig=11769056 0921886885166&page=1&tbnh=141&tbnw=173&start=0&ndsp=47&ved=1t:429,r:40,s:0,i:208 • http://www.google.com/imgres?um=1&hl=en&safe=off&client=firefox-a&tbo=d&rls=org.mozilla:en- US:official&biw=1680&bih=946&tbm=isch&tbnid=3fP_pKoszZdE7M:&imgrefurl=http://www.robinstewart.com/personal/learn /wfbc/computers.html&docid=e3WF6Iro0sansM&imgurl=http://www.robinstewart.com/personal/learn/wfbc/images/kflops. gif&w=400&h=252&ei=1Rb4UOn- HoaS0QHI9oGQDw&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=326&vpy=587&dur=2189&hovh=178&hovw=283&tx=197&ty=86&sig=117690560 921886885166&page=2&tbnh=132&tbnw=210&start=47&ndsp=50&ved=1t:429,r:65,s:0,i:283 • http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/the-national-hurricane-centers-striking-forecast-for- superstorm-sandy/2012/11/01/e2633b5e-2427-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html • http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/foundations/numerical_wx_pred/welcome.html#today http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ENIAChttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_meteorology http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/foundations/numerical_wx_pred/welcome.html#today http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/forecast-accuracy-time.html http://www.research.noaa.gov/weather/t_modeling.html http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6108/734/F5.expansion.html http://www.thetruckersreport.com • http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/

48. Weis Decisions Index Roaring Lions Weather Associates